ATL: ISAAC - Models

[wxGuy]

Not good for Mexico and Texas coastline i can promise you that

[chris_fit]

Not good for Mexico and Texas coastline i can promise you that

Pure Fantasy land for now - But this is the farthest W it has gotten - it did not get sucked up into Florence this time

[toad strangler]

Not good for Mexico and Texas coastline i can promise you that

Pure Fantasy land for now - But this is the farthest W it has gotten - it did not get sucked up into Florence this time

GFS late hours have been bizarre to say the least.

[SoupBone]

Not good for Mexico and Texas coastline i can promise you that

Pure Fantasy land for now - But this is the farthest W it has gotten - it did not get sucked up into Florence this time

Not just west, but south too. That's a polar opposite run from the Euro showing it heading out to sea. Huge differences with the two models, not that that's surprising.

[supercane4867]

Looking at the ridging pattern on 12z EC, It maybe trying to pull an Ivan...

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at the ridging pattern on 12z EC, It maybe trying to pull an Ivan...

With the wind shear that has been present all season in the Caribbean I doubt it. It would have a much better chance of survival if it goes north of the Caribbean.

[SoupBone]

Looking at the ridging pattern on 12z EC, It maybe trying to pull an Ivan...

With the wind shear that has been present all season in the Caribbean I doubt it. It would have a much better chance of survival if it goes north of the Caribbean.

If there's one positive for the Caribbean, it's at least that much. That Shear has been in that area for the entire season, and it's been very Stout. So hopefully anything that would generate in that area would at least be minimal for them.

[TheAustinMan]

Looking at the ridging pattern on 12z EC, It maybe trying to pull an Ivan...

With the wind shear that has been present all season in the Caribbean I doubt it.

I won't speak to the validity of an Ivan comparison, but one thing that ought to be considered is the notion that Florence will be intensifying over the Sargasso Sea. That essentially nudges the persistent TUTT that has been producing shear over the Caribbean and could potentially give 92L an "upper-air free space" to work with in the Caribbean. Of course, placement of Florence with respect to 92L is crucial as an expanding Florence could impart significant shear over the Caribbean as well depending on where it all lines up.

[Cpv17]

Judging by this run of the Euro, 92L is going to be a problem for someone.

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the ridging pattern on 12z EC, It maybe trying to pull an Ivan...

With the wind shear that has been present all season in the Caribbean I doubt it. It would have a much better chance of survival if it goes north of the Caribbean.

euro seeing things very differently than 12 hours ago...west and south, the ridging looks very solid on this run but florence seems to be plowing into a ridge which looks suspect

[supercane4867]

Looking at the ridging pattern on 12z EC, It maybe trying to pull an Ivan...

With the wind shear that has been present all season in the Caribbean I doubt it.

I won't speak to the validity of an Ivan comparison, but one thing that ought to be considered is the notion that Florence will be intensifying over the Sargasso Sea. That essentially nudges the persistent TUTT that has been producing shear over the Caribbean and could potentially give 92L an "upper-air free space" to work with in the Caribbean. Of course, placement of Florence with respect to 92L is crucial as an expanding Florence could impart significant shear over the Caribbean as well depending on where it all lines up.

In fact at 192hr frame EC has 92L intensifying once it enters Carribean.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at the ridging pattern on 12z EC, It maybe trying to pull an Ivan...

With the wind shear that has been present all season in the Caribbean I doubt it. It would have a much better chance of survival if it goes north of the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/18tRi6W.gif

euro seeing things very differently than 12 hours ago...west and south, the ridging looks very solid on this run but florence seems to be plowing into a ridge which looks suspect

Not trying to get off topic but Florence is not plowing into a ridge. It is simply scooting around the periphery of it.

[TheStormExpert]

Weakens once in the Central Caribbean likely due to wind shear.

[jlauderdal]

With the wind shear that has been present all season in the Caribbean I doubt it. It would have a much better chance of survival if it goes north of the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/18tRi6W.gif

euro seeing things very differently than 12 hours ago...west and south, the ridging looks very solid on this run but florence seems to be plowing into a ridge which looks suspect

Not trying to get off topic but Florence is not plowing into a ridge. It is simply scooting around the periphery of it.

florence is going to affect helene so we are staying on topic. i can see the ridge at 192 but at 216 it does move to the east giving florence a path..gfs has the high much farther east so it makes sense and euro does to but later in time..the net result of all this is about the same, florence is not creating a weakness on either solution so the islands need to be on full alert, doesnt look too strong but we know how intensity forecasting goes

[Bocadude85]

240hrs and strengthening in the Central Caribbean

[SFLcane]

Conditions in the caribbean are very hostile to say the least looks like its heading for central america on the EURO.

[Cpv17]

92L could be a Caribbean Cruiser.

[SoupBone]

92L could be a Caribbean Cruiser.

I'm only doing this once, I promise. But this keeps popping in my head.



It's definitely starting to get concerning seeing the two models begin to agree. Still several days from really worrying, but there's gonna be lots to talk about with these models in the next several days.

[toad strangler]

Conditions in the caribbean are very hostile to say the least looks like its heading for central america on the EURO.

Yep, same as 12z GFS. Both of these globals backed off on Florence sucking the basin dry.

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF is very aggressive with 92L