WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

On Saturday morning the Coast Guard declared Port Heavy Weather Condition X-Ray for Guam, Saipan, Rota and Tinian, which means winds over 39 mph are expected within 48 hours.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038103257946763267

[euro6208]

Euro vs the rest of the models.

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MANGKHUT)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1014 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 072246Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) AND A 072244Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 38 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE
POLEWARD CHANNEL BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STEERING TS 26W GENERALLY WESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 185NM AT TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ECMWF AND THE ECWMF ENSEMBLE (EEMN), THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
REMAINS OVER GUAM / TINIAN WITH A SPREAD OF 90NM AT CPA. ANALYSIS OF
ECMWF, NAVGEM AND GFS FIELDS SHOWS A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN JAPAN ACTING TO RE-
ORIENT THE STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS IS THAT ECMWF INDICATES A SLIGHT DIP
IN THE TRACK SOUTH OF GUAM WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TRACK THE INTENSE
SYSTEM MORE INTO THE RIDGE. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER,
THE CURRENT TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
WARNING AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL
THERE IS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
TRACK SOUTH OF GUAM. CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THEREFORE, TS 26W IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FROM TAU 24 TO 48 THEN STEADY
INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 72 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF SOLUTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK
WITH A 370NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB,
REACHING 135 KTS BY TAU 120. THIS IS ABOVE THE BULK OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE COAMPS-GFS WHICH DEVELOPS MORE
SLOWLY IN THE EARLY TAUS BUT PREDICTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION FROM
TAU 48 TO 96. FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS FAIR BASED ON MODEL UNCERTAINTY.//
NNNN

[wxmann_91]

0Z Euro shifted north with Mangkhut... after days of burying it south of Guam, the latest run now hits Rota.

[mrbagyo]

0Z Euro shifted north with Mangkhut... after days of burying it south of Guam, the latest run now hits Rota.

It shifted south though in the extended range - now passing it in the Luzon Straight (giving a Meranti vibe)

I'll wait for the 00z EPS.

[wxmann_91]

0Z Euro shifted north with Mangkhut... after days of burying it south of Guam, the latest run now hits Rota.

It shifted south though in the extended range - now passing it in the Luzon Straight (giving a Meranti vibe)

I'll wait for the 00z EPS.

Makes sense -- global models have a distinct poleward bias for typhoons in the Philippine Sea. I think last night there were several EPS members south of the operational that bring Manghut over Luzon.

[doomhaMwx]

0Z Euro shifted north with Mangkhut... after days of burying it south of Guam, the latest run now hits Rota.

It shifted south though in the extended range - now passing it in the Luzon Straight (giving a Meranti vibe)

I'll wait for the 00z EPS.

Makes sense -- global models have a distinct poleward bias for typhoons in the Philippine Sea. I think last night there were several EPS members south of the operational that bring Manghut over Luzon.

[doomhaMwx]

We might see something like this

[doomhaMwx]

Latest(00Z) EPS has increased number of members over the Luzon Strait and Luzon.

[euro6208]

Track shifts north to Rota.

[NotoSans]

0Z Euro shifted north with Mangkhut... after days of burying it south of Guam, the latest run now hits Rota.

It shifted south though in the extended range - now passing it in the Luzon Straight (giving a Meranti vibe)

I'll wait for the 00z EPS.

The steering pattern is a bit different from Meranti (which tracks poleward after passing the Luzon Strait. The track in fact looks a bit like Ellen’83 and Hagupit’08.

[Guamphoon]

Track shifts north to Rota.

I hate to wish harm on the folks of the CNMI, but I hope this more northerly trend in the forecast tracks holds.

We are still in for a crazy week here in Guam, that projected wind radii is nothing to ignore. This looks like it will affect all the Marianas substantially.

[mrbagyo]

0Z Euro shifted north with Mangkhut... after days of burying it south of Guam, the latest run now hits Rota.

It shifted south though in the extended range - now passing it in the Luzon Straight (giving a Meranti vibe)

I'll wait for the 00z EPS.

The steering pattern is a bit different from Meranti (which tracks poleward after passing the Luzon Strait. The track in fact looks a bit like Ellen’83 and Hagupit’08.

Yeah, Meranti did that Poleward run while the current ECMWF is suggesting a more WNW track.
With regards to Ellen as analog - that would also be dangerous for HK.

Latest(00Z) EPS has increased number of members over the Luzon Strait and Luzon.

I noticed that there are two distinct camps in that diagram - Taiwan camp (Earlier WNW track) vs Luzon Straight Camp (Delayed WNW track)

[mrbagyo]

26W MANGKHUT 180908 0600 14.3N 160.8E WPAC 40 993

[euro6208]

804
WTPQ31 PGUM 080949
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mangkhut (26W) Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP262018
800 PM ChST Sat Sep 8 2018

...TROPICAL STORM MANGKHUT TURNING SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is now in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan
in the Mariana Islands. Typhoon conditions, including destructive
winds of 74 mph or more, are possible within 48 hours...by Monday
evening.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.4N 160.0E

About 955 miles east of Saipan
About 960 miles east of Tinian
About 990 miles east of Rota
About 1025 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...WNW...295 degrees at 18 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Mangkhut
was located near Latitude 14.4 degrees North and Longitude 160.0
degrees East...moving west-northwest at 18 mph. A slow turn back
to a more westerly course is expected tonight and Sunday, on a
track that brings Mangkut through the Marianas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph. Mangkhut is
forecast to intensify the next few days, and should be a typhoon
Sunday afternoon or evening.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles northwest
of the center, and up to 90 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM this evening, followed by the next scheduled
advisory at 2 AM Sunday morning.

$$

Middlebrooke

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

JMA favors a track to Guam...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MANGKHUT)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 926 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
080438Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENING CONVECTION AND
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 080438Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND A
080552Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE, AS THE LLCC IS NOW COVERED BY FLARING
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVING CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HEDGED ABOVE MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS), THOUGH IT AGREES WITH A 080238Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TURN TO DUE WEST
HAS NOT VERIFIED YET, WITH 26W CURRENTLY TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THAN WAS FORECAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STEERING TS 26W GENERALLY WESTWARD. 26W IS FORECAST TO TURN DUE
WESTWARD AND THEN TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 12, AS A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF JAPAN MOVES TO THE EAST AND RE-
ORIENTS THE STR, PUSHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR DOWN AND
FORCING 26W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. THE MOST RECENT ECMWF RUN HAS
MOVED NORTH, NOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF GUAM, AS 26W HAS NOT YET
REALIZED THE TURN TO A DUE WESTWARD TRACK THAT WAS FORECAST. ALL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS 26W NORTH OF GUAM, WITH 75 NM OF
SPREAD AT TAU 48 AS 26W APPROACHES THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THEREFORE, TS
26W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FROM TAU 24 TO 96, REACHING 115
KTS BY TAU 72. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE HWRF SOLUTION,
WHICH IS THE HIGHER OUTLIER OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND THE
COAMPS-GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS FAIR DUE TO THE SHIFT IN ECMWF SOLUTION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF GUAM, AND DUE TO MODELS NOT CAPTURING THE
ONGOING NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. ECMWF SHOWS A SOUTHWARD DIP IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH RE-ORIENTING THE STR, AND IS THE SOUTHERN
OUTLIER FOR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A 360NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB, REACHING 135 KTS BY
TAU 120. WHILE HWRF AND COAMPS-NAVGEM LEVEL OFF TO A MORE GRADUAL
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120, COAMPS-GFS CONTINUES
TO PREDICT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS FAIR BASED ON MODEL UNCERTAINTY.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 080915

A. TROPICAL STORM 26W (MANGKHUT)

B. 08/0850Z

C. 14.51N

D. 159.84E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/0331Z 14.08N 161.37E GPMI
08/0438Z 14.28N 161.10E SSMS
08/0552Z 14.33N 160.78E MMHS


LOWE

TXPQ23 KNES 080939
TCSWNP

A. 26W (MANGKHUT)

B. 08/0830Z

C. 14.4N

D. 159.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 3.0 IS BASED ON 0.6 BANDING. MET IS 2.5 AND PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

Impressive burst of convection.