ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[chaser1]

Are we looking at the same map lol? Pensacola hasn't moved and the storm tracks directly over it - again. I see no westward shift here.

12z euro was around Destin..think this run shows Pensacola..same area but need detailed map to confirm

Okay, I might give you that But I think i'm gonna hold off on suggesting much evidence towards any significant westward shift based on this run. Definitely a little stronger though. Sidenote, look at that secondary large gyre in the W. Caribbean pulling north with time, as well!

[Ivanhater]

Are we looking at the same map lol? Pensacola hasn't moved and the storm tracks directly over it - again. I see no westward shift here.

12z euro was around Destin..think this run shows Pensacola..same area but need detailed map to confirm

Okay, I might give you that But I think i'm gonna hold off on suggesting much evidence towards any significant westward shift based on this run. Definitely a little stronger though. Sidenote, look at that secondary large gyre in the W. Caribbean pulling north with time, as well!

For sure....this might just be the first spin off of more to come from the Caribbean

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest Euro landfall IF storm genesis is where it says 988mb

[PSUHiker31]

Latest Euro landfall IF storm genesis is where it says 988mb

It's actually lower than that.. Showing 983 on higher resolution plot.

Also I think this is the first storm I've ever seen where the UKMET and GFS agree and the Euro shows something different.

[BobHarlem]

6Z GFS Shifts west toward Mex Beach, and getting into cat 3 territory here Wednesday morning.

[robbielyn]

FV3-GFS pensacola mobile area

[cycloneye]

HWRF goes wild.

[NDG]

06z HWRF, Major Hurricane

[ronjon]

06z HWRF 945 mb south of pensacola.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=91L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100606&fh=6

[NDG]

Between Pensacola Beach and Navarre Beach is the HWRF's landfall forecast.

[tolakram]

Here's the 0Z Euro one frame post landfall, strengthening all the way in after a brief stall.

[TheStormExpert]

Yep all major global models show a Hurricane Michael approaching the northern Gulf Coast sometime during the second half of the upcoming week.

[ronjon]

One thing that may be leading to the strengthening trend at landfall are the unusually high temps in the northern GOM due to one of the warmest Septembers on record. And ULL conditions are also apparently improving.

[NDG]

Another look at last night's Euro, UKMET and the latest 06z GFS, the northern gulf coast of FL is currently in the Bull's eye, with latest GFS looking like the consensus between the 3 of them. IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS is all alone with its bullish intensity when put up against the other dynamic models as of 12z.

[p1nheadlarry]

Are we looking at the same map lol? Pensacola hasn't moved and the storm tracks directly over it - again. I see no westward shift here.

12z euro was around Destin..think this run shows Pensacola..same area but need detailed map to confirm

They're like an hour apart via US 98, not much of a difference. A landfall near Pensacola or Panama City would be nasty for both Destin and Tallahassee, respectively if this is a right-heavy system.

[p1nheadlarry]

One thing that may be leading to the strengthening trend at landfall are the unusually high temps in the northern GOM due to one of the warmest Septembers on record. And ULL conditions are also apparently improving.

Which is why I wonder why we see a good amount of strengthening as it approaches landfall on the models heading more east. The eastern GOM is usually cooler. Last time I was in the water was in Walton County to the west, still fairly warm, but haven't taken a dip here since (am scared of red tide lol)

[NDG]

GFS is all alone with its bullish intensity when put up against the other dynamic models as of 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/eeuJMOY.png

Is actually the HWRF that shows a Cat 3 on that chart, the GFS is the AVNI which shows it becoming Cat 1. BTW last night's UKMET & Euro are not here which both show it becoming a hurricane.

[Blown Away]

GFS is all alone with its bullish intensity when put up against the other dynamic models as of 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/eeuJMOY.png

Is actually the HWRF that shows a Cat 3 on that chart, the GFS is the AVNI which shows it becoming Cat 1. BTW last night's UKMET & Euro are not here which both show it becoming a hurricane.

I think strong TS or Hurricane is on the table, but the HWRF seems to show a Cat 3+ with every storm.

[Noles2016]

We've got enough to worry about up here today when it comes to hurricanes (go Noles)... Seriously though, here comes the expected October North/NE GOM threat...