CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Got the Dvorak right too bad it's worthless right now.

TXPN41 PHFO 212355 CCA
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2353 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

A. HURRICANE LANE EP142018.

B. 21/2330Z.

C. 14.4N.

D. 153.5W.

E. GOES-W.

F. T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24HRS.

G. VIS/IR/EIR.

H. Remarks: EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE AND SURROUNDING B RING, YIELDING A DATA T OF 6.5. MET AND PT ARE 6.5. FT BASED ON DATA T.

I. ADDL POSITIONS NONE.

$$

KINO.

[1900hurricane]

I'd classify this as ++ eye presentation on visible imagery.

Is that a specific designation?

If you mean specifically designated by me, then yes. : P You can call it 80 grade, S rank, whatever you want. The point is that is an extremely impressive eye.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 153.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
*Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued this afternoon or tonight.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1032056015112601601




 https://twitter.com/ScottNogueira/status/1032056396307681280




 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1032056726198124544




 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1032058120963547136

[Ntxw]

Call it what it is, worthy of Cat 5

[floridasun78]

that Atlantic is dead i bet alot chaser going their to cast hurr this could biggest news this year involving hurr

[1900hurricane]

Just running KZC off the 929 mb pressure to estimate the winds yields 137.5 kt. The 0.85 ratio off the lowest 150 m of that dropsonde yielded 136 kt. Unflagged SFMR was 140 kt. 0.90 ratio off 146 kt flight level winds yields 131.4 kt. I think I probably would have upped to 140 kt, but it's really close. This may be a similar case to Irma '17 where the wind increase led the pressure falls, which flies in the face of the common notion that it is supposed to happen the other way around.

[Yellow Evan]

Just running KZC off the 929 mb pressure to estimate the winds yields 137.5 kt. The 0.85 ratio off the lowest 150 m of that dropsonde yielded 136 kt. Unflagged SFMR was 140 kt. 0.90 ratio off 146 kt flight level winds yields 131.4 kt. I think I probably would have upped to 140 kt, but it's really close. This may be a similar case to Irma '17 where the wind increase led the pressure falls, which flies in the face of the common notion that it is supposed to happen the other way around.

.90 isn't applicable in intense hurricanes all the time. Throughout recon's passage, SFMR has consistently been 140 knots or higher with similar FL winds.

This really is as a clear cut case for 140 as you can get

[cycloneye]

SAB is below cat 5.

21/2330 UTC 14.4N 153.5W T6.5/6.5 LANE -- Central Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN24 KNES 212345
TCSCNP

A. 14E (LANE)

B. 21/2330Z

C. 14.4N

D. 153.5W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN
A DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 212355

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 21/2331Z

C. 14.44N

D. 153.52W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2018 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 14:26:23 N Lon : 153:31:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 937.9mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +17.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Still deepening.

[AJC3]

I think the point that many of you disagree with the intermediate advisory intensity being 135KT instead of 140KT has been more than well-established now.

The mods/admins won't let this thread turn into a CPHC bash-fest. I guarantee you that.

The suggestion that the less-learned general public won't be as well-prepared for a high-end cat 4 with MSW of 155MPH vs a low end cat 5 with MSW of 160MPH is a pretty thin one. Yes, feel free to disagree - you've done so already. But remember that you're talking about 5 MPH of wind. Plus, when it comes to posterity, It's pretty much a given that the eventual final BT/intensity for this system will show some significant changes over what the op-advisories have shown. So, until the final report comes out, let's temper our criticism, and keep it in perspective that the vast majority of people who will wind up being impacted by Lane, are 1/100th as aware as the folks on this board are about the the nuances of such things.

Carry on...

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1032057213999669248

[Ntxw]

Also with 135kts my math has about 26.9 ACE units from advisories.

[supercane4867]

Lane continues to strengthen. No signs of weakening at the moment

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly this may be on its way to 150 knots. W side still needs work though.

[1900hurricane]

Also with 135kts my math has about 26.9 ACE units from advisories.

I'm also at 26.925 units using best track.

[gatorcane]

Wow looks impressive. That GFS run brings this right into the big island albeit weaker than it is now.

[Sciencerocks]

TPPZ01 PGTW 212355

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 21/2331Z

C. 14.44N

D. 153.52W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

Wouldn't you admit that these satellite estimates are vastly inferior compared to recon? I'd trust directly measured wind data over this any day of the week.