ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Outerbanker,

Great question I ask that exact question earlier but don't think anyone responded.

[robbielyn]

Hernando county still in ts watch. ts warning stops 17 miles to the north of us in sw citrus county chassahowitzka river South of homosassa. so less impacts wind wise and rain wise for our area to points South ts watch to manatee county

[wxman57]

Outerbanker,

Great question I ask that exact question earlier but don't think anyone responded.

What's the question?!

[Gums]

@Destin_Hurri

If you are ground level in noirth Destin, you might get water from the bay if the storm keeps on current track. Strong northerly wind, ya see

If Mike hits PCB directly wind will be noticeably higher than if it grazes Appalachie and strikes near St Marks/Panacea/Crawfordville etc. For some reason we get lots less wind when a storm is just 50 miles or so east of us ( I'm in Niceville). We hardly felt Alberto this spring.

Opal's surge was mostly felt right on the Gulf/Holiday Isle/Okaloosa Island/Navarre Beach, and the stormchaser video shows it coming in on HWY98 near Memorial. It had come across the island but no waves on it. At Eglin, waves on top of smaller surge washed many boats uphill. but remember, Opal was a strong 2 or weak 3, but perfect impact to give FWB a good surge and high winds. Was tree city in the southern part of the county for well over a month. FWB newspaper ran a series of photos last week and a half.

Biggest problem in Destin if on high ground is loss off power for a few days. Leave early if you choose, but the bridges will be bottlenecks.

Gums sends...

[psyclone]

I’m surprised they issued watches all the way to the LA/MS border

They issued watches for the west coast of florida during Matthew and we endured 10mph winds.

[EquusStorm]

Okay, so during this brief lull and awaiting recon, riddle me this Batman!

Michael will be with us for at least 3 more days (longer if maintaining T.S. intensity up to moving offshore the E. Seaboard). Leslie will, oh jeeez.... never ever leave the Atlantic LOL, and then there is 93L S. of Cape Verde (which i'd already call a T.D), which by the way Euro, HMON, CMC, and NOGAPS all take to 1002 mb or less by 72 hours.

When was the last OCTOBER date/year that we had three active storms spinning at the same time within the Atlantic Basin??

Out of curiosity, a quick glance through old Atlantic seasonal maps, if we're not counting remnants of or percursors to storms, looking like 1995, so uh, that's actually extremely impressive (came super close in 2005 and 2008 but I think at least 6 or 12 hours off)

Ironically, Opal was part of this most recent three October storm volley

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Just to relieve a little stress for the folks up at FSU,

You had to deal with a Hurricane down in Miami this past Sat, unfortunately you will be dealing with another one later this week.

[ocala]

Just to relieve a little stress for the folks up at FSU,

You had to deal with a Hurricane down in Miami this past Sat, unfortunately you will be dealing with another one later this week.

Burn

[jdjaguar]

Just to relieve a little stress for the folks up at FSU,

You had to deal with a Hurricane down in Miami this past Sat, unfortunately you will be dealing with another one later this week.

That's pouring salt into the wound, really not necessary in my opinion.

Hurricanes are serious business, football not so much

[psyclone]

Hernando county still in ts watch. ts warning stops 17 miles to the north of us in sw citrus county chassahowitzka river South of homosassa. so less impacts wind wise and rain wise for our area to points South ts watch to manatee county

we're the beneficiary of that westward tack. Tampa's ts wind probs were 45 last night and now they're down to 31. Even cedar key has dropped a tad. I strongly agree with the decision not to extend warnings farther south at this point

[Miami Storm Tracker]

jdjaguar,

You should know it was not meant to be cruel people can see and understand the difference.

[GBPackMan]

Wouldn't read too much into that; the intensity models have consistently low-balled this storm.

Easy to do when it is just a gaggle of thunderstorms, but once it actually forms into something is when the models start to do their job properly. This is why some work great for hurricanes but can't predict a likely area of non-tropical thunderstorm formation. I still see way too much cooler air making its way in as it gets closer to the panhandle to have this intensify much beyond a weak Cat 2 24-36h out.

So where is this cool air coming from? The SE is still locked into a summer pattern at mid week

https://i.imgur.com/kgC5SmI.png

The Jet stream remains anchored to the southwestern US with the eastern edge pushing further SE across the central plains which is what guides the turn to the NE with this storm into Panama City or further east. This is also the cold front that has snow being dropped into the Rockies, so it has the colder outflow off the SE turn of the jet stream that many models are not accounting for.

Part of the problem I see is they're using the 18z models to say "look at prior model run with new info" so they see current model run + recent intensification, instead of setting up a new run. Now they're pushing the narrative that there will be RI now into Cat 3 with 110+ mph at landfall, but they are not taking into account the cooler night time temps (50s-60s) across the southeastern US getting sucked in, nor the colder air coming off the jetstream. I am hoping the 0z or at least the 6z runs will take more of this into account.

Doesn't hurt to be prepared in case these models pan out, but NHC and TWC quickly jumped on the Cat 3 expectation without the extended data being included, which I do not agree with.

[chaser1]

Okay, so during this brief lull and awaiting recon, riddle me this Batman!

Michael will be with us for at least 3 more days (longer if maintaining T.S. intensity up to moving offshore the E. Seaboard). Leslie will, oh jeeez.... never ever leave the Atlantic LOL, and then there is 93L S. of Cape Verde (which i'd already call a T.D), which by the way Euro, HMON, CMC, and NOGAPS all take to 1002 mb or less by 72 hours.

When was the last OCTOBER date/year that we had three active storms spinning at the same time within the Atlantic Basin??

Out of curiosity, a quick glance through old Atlantic seasonal maps, if we're not counting remnants of or percursors to storms, looking like 1995, so uh, that's actually extremely impressive (came super close in 2005 but I think at least 6 or 12 hours off)

Ironically, Opal was part of this most recent three October storm volley

1995 was kinda close but nope; nor was 2005. Of course, we've had three September storms spinning on the same day but we're a good deal later into the season then that. Of course this assumes that 93L will be upgraded on or around the 10th but I think it will.

[KWT]

The Jet stream remains anchored to the southwestern US with the eastern edge pushing further SE across the central plains which is what guides the turn to the NE with this storm into Panama City or further east. This is also the cold front that has snow being dropped into the Rockies, so it has the colder outflow off the SE turn of the jet stream that many models are not accounting for.

https://imgur.com/7KqJT4E

Using the 18z models to say "look at prior model run with new info" instead of setting up a new run. Now they're pushing the narrative that there will be RI now into Cat 3 with 110+ mph at landfall, but they are not taking into account the cooler night time temps (50s-60s) across the southeastern US getting sucked in, nor the colder air coming off the jetstream. I am hoping the 0z or at least the 6z runs will take more of this into account.

Doesn't hurt to be prepared in case these models pan out, but NHC and TWC quickly jumped on the Cat 3 expectation without the extended data being included, which I do not agree with.

Dude there is NO temps that low, last night mins were pretty much exclusively above 70f across the whole of the south, inde d in places it was more like 75. There is no 50s within a 1000 miles of Michael at the moment.

[jdjaguar]

You should know it was not meant to be cruel people can see and understand the difference.

No worries.
Just know that some folks are on edge.

[xironman]

Using the 18z models to say "look at prior model run with new info" instead of setting up a new run. Now they're pushing the narrative that there will be RI now into Cat 3 with 110+ mph at landfall, but they are not taking into account the cooler night time temps (50s-60s) across the southeastern US getting sucked in, nor the colder air coming off the jetstream. I am hoping the 0z or at least the 6z runs will take more of this into account.

Doesn't hurt to be prepared in case these models pan out, but NHC and TWC quickly jumped on the Cat 3 expectation without the extended data being included, which I do not agree with.

Even the always too cold NAM (18z) does not show any 50s-60s, east of the Mississippi or south of TN.

[Raebie]

The Jet stream remains anchored to the southwestern US with the eastern edge pushing further SE across the central plains which is what guides the turn to the NE with this storm into Panama City or further east. This is also the cold front that has snow being dropped into the Rockies, so it has the colder outflow off the SE turn of the jet stream that many models are not accounting for.

https://imgur.com/7KqJT4E

Using the 18z models to say "look at prior model run with new info" instead of setting up a new run. Now they're pushing the narrative that there will be RI now into Cat 3 with 110+ mph at landfall, but they are not taking into account the cooler night time temps (50s-60s) across the southeastern US getting sucked in, nor the colder air coming off the jetstream. I am hoping the 0z or at least the 6z runs will take more of this into account.

Doesn't hurt to be prepared in case these models pan out, but NHC and TWC quickly jumped on the Cat 3 expectation without the extended data being included, which I do not agree with.

Dude there is NO temps that low, last night mins were pretty much exclusively above 70f across the whole of the south, inde d in places it was more like 75. There is no 50s within a 1000 miles of Michael at the moment.

No kidding. God knows I wish there were. It's a freaking sauna in the SE.

[GBPackMan]

The Jet stream remains anchored to the southwestern US with the eastern edge pushing further SE across the central plains which is what guides the turn to the NE with this storm into Panama City or further east. This is also the cold front that has snow being dropped into the Rockies, so it has the colder outflow off the SE turn of the jet stream that many models are not accounting for.

https://imgur.com/7KqJT4E

Using the 18z models to say "look at prior model run with new info" instead of setting up a new run. Now they're pushing the narrative that there will be RI now into Cat 3 with 110+ mph at landfall, but they are not taking into account the cooler night time temps (50s-60s) across the southeastern US getting sucked in, nor the colder air coming off the jetstream. I am hoping the 0z or at least the 6z runs will take more of this into account.

Doesn't hurt to be prepared in case these models pan out, but NHC and TWC quickly jumped on the Cat 3 expectation without the extended data being included, which I do not agree with.

Dude there is NO temps that low, last night mins were pretty much exclusively above 70f across the whole of the south, inde d in places it was more like 75. There is no 50s within a 1000 miles of Michael at the moment.

Low 70s in my stretch of the western FL panhandle the last few nights, colder inland.

[kthmcc7319]

The Jet stream remains anchored to the southwestern US with the eastern edge pushing further SE across the central plains which is what guides the turn to the NE with this storm into Panama City or further east. This is also the cold front that has snow being dropped into the Rockies, so it has the colder outflow off the SE turn of the jet stream that many models are not accounting for.

https://imgur.com/7KqJT4E

Using the 18z models to say "look at prior model run with new info" instead of setting up a new run. Now they're pushing the narrative that there will be RI now into Cat 3 with 110+ mph at landfall, but they are not taking into account the cooler night time temps (50s-60s) across the southeastern US getting sucked in, nor the colder air coming off the jetstream. I am hoping the 0z or at least the 6z runs will take more of this into account.

Doesn't hurt to be prepared in case these models pan out, but NHC and TWC quickly jumped on the Cat 3 expectation without the extended data being included, which I do not agree with.

Dude there is NO temps that low, last night mins were pretty much exclusively above 70f across the whole of the south, inde d in places it was more like 75. There is no 50s within a 1000 miles of Michael at the moment.

No kidding. God knows I wish there were. It's a freaking sauna in the SE.

It’s been unseasonably warm in the Destin area the last few weeks. Highs in the mid 90s, lows have been mid 70s.

[Jag95]

The forecast calls for upper 50s across the north central gulf coast behind the front, but that's not until Thursday night.