CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

TPPZ01 PGTW 212355

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 21/2331Z

C. 14.44N

D. 153.52W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

Wouldn't you admit that these satellite estimates are vastly inferior compared to recon? I'd trust directly measured wind data over this any day of the week.

For sure, but comparing remote sensing estimates to ground truth (air truth?) is important for extrapolating trends as well refining intensity estimates for when ground obs aren't available.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 212355

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 21/2331Z

C. 14.44N

D. 153.52W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

Wouldn't you admit that these satellite estimates are vastly inferior compared to recon? I'd trust directly measured wind data over this any day of the week.

That's a given but it's good to compare.

[Eric Webb]

Weighing satellite intensity estimates when we have solid, more reliable recon data to confirm Lane's intensity is equivalent to someone taking surface temperature measurements w/ a thermometer and then adjusting the data towards less reliable temperature proxies from rocks, coral, tree rings, ice cores, etc. Yes, there's nothing wrong to compare the two but when you have better data available that's arguably an order of magnitude (or more) accurate, the other source should be largely ignored, there's a time and place for their utilization but this is clearly not the time & place to give much, or even any credence to Dvorak and SAB.

[1900hurricane]

Speaking of remote sensing vs obs, this is the worst I've seen SATCON handle a system in a while.

[Ntxw]

Regardless of what happens it will still have a good shot at an upgrade, if not after, there is likely another shot before the night is over. Lane isn't letting go of the gas pedal just yet. More recon tonight.

What a beast. Those in Hawaii probably should already be prepared.

[gatorcane]

wow what a powerful hurricane. Stay safe those in the Hawaiian islands.

[mcheer23]

00z early models are out

[Highteeld]

Regardless of what happens it will still have a good shot at an upgrade, if not after, there is likely another shot before the night is over. Lane isn't letting go of the gas pedal just yet. More recon tonight.

What a beast. Those in Hawaii probably should already be preppared.

The stadium effect there reminds me of Patricia back in 2015 -- just a little bit

[1900hurricane]

Microwave structure is amazing.

[SconnieCane]

Most impressive satellite presentation globally since Maria when it was about midway between Dominica and PR, unless I missed something in the WPAC.

Lane's track has been angling ever so slightly to the right throughout the day, but it seems to me that for a Big Island hit, it would have to hook sharply to the right starting right about now. I don't think the ridge will open up that much, that fast. Then there are the solutions that have it hooking up towards Hawaii but then bending back to the west before a hit.

(Up arrow was directed at that RBTOP loop, other posts were made while I was typing mine)

[Highteeld]

nvm

[Nimbus]

Speaking of remote sensing vs obs, this is the worst I've seen SATCON handle a system in a while.

Lane is really packed right now but they are forecasting Cat1 conditions further up the island chain.
Only thing I could think of was that they were afraid Cat 5 hype might over panic the public?
We know what happens in the Caribbean when they have only the last boat or plane out to evacuate.
Its going to be shelter in place for most people with Lane.

[supercane4867]

Classic CAT5 shape right there

[SunnyThoughts]

You guys in Hawaii stay safe. Hopefully the winds come down substantially before impacts are felt. Just tons of rain regardless, be ready.

[NDG]

First time checking out Lane since 2 days ago. Incredible event for Hawaii, something we don't see too often. GFS sniffed the potential threat to Hawaii back then and I was laughing at it, eating now for sure

[Ntxw]

In the span of roughly 2 weeks, we now have had 2 monster hurricanes within a dart's throw of Hawaii.

First Hector


Now Lane

[shiny-pebble]

First time checking out Lane since 2 days ago. Incredible event for Hawaii, something we don't see too often. GFS sniffed the potential threat to Hawaii back then and I was laughing at it, eating now for sure

Same, totally thought it would just be a John/Fabio 2.0 and not live up to expectations.

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[Highteeld]

It's still intensifying

[Ntxw]

Just wow, I would not be surprised at all if the next flight in we get even higher readings.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

CDO appears to becoming even more intense now.