CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

It's simply not good that Lane continues to be stronger than forecast, especially with a track towards Maui or Oahu in the cards.

[CrazyC83]

The difference between a 155 mph storm and a 160 mph storm is academic. For those in the path, it is like the difference between being hit by an 18 wheeler and a freight train. Both are incredibly dangerous.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Fresh recon enroute, so we'll see if the intensity is any different. I think it's a 5, but I respect the decision of the CPHC.

[SunnyThoughts]

Definitely looks to be still intensifying to me as well. Hopefully an ERC will take it down a peg or two overnight or tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

It's simply not good that Lane continues to be stronger than forecast, especially with a track towards Maui or Oahu in the cards.

It's held up very well and is looking better than it ever has in it's life so far. The fact that it has survived some big wind shear nearby and basically bullied its way enhanced by its own environment has changed the forecast the past week.

[supercane4867]

With nothing seems to weaken Lane in the near future, the next recon will confirm CAT5 intensity anyway.

[tolakram]

REMINDER

It is strictly against Storm 2K rules to bash any pro mets, including the hurricane centers. This rule is strictly enforced with no exceptions, period. Bashing does not mean you can't disagree, but exaggerated claims are not tolerated.

The data from recon is not going anywhere, it's all been collected and will be reviewed and re-analyzed as it always is with every storm.

[hawaiigirl]

thanks for all the updates. Please pray for Hawaii. I’m on the north shore of Oahu. People are so chill here, and it worries me that a lot of people are not taking this serious. The homes here are made of single wood, a cat 4 or 5 would be devistating

[txwatcher91]

One thing I’m wondering is why models have struggled to initialize Lane properly AND weaken it almost instantly when it’s clear that’s completely wrong? With Lane organizing so well tonight I’m wondering if it might peak soon and begin an ERC which would make it more susceptible to shear. Even if that happens there would be significant impacts for Hawaii but perhaps something like this will occur.

[Ntxw]

This is not as useful with recon en-route but shows well that Lane is not done intensifying. Again they may be going in at the right time. Agree with supercane's post above, we'll likely get confirmation, in fact would not be surprised if they found more than 140kts.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2018 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 14:28:47 N Lon : 153:42:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 938.5mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +16.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[tolakram]

From the GOES-W FTP site: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeswest/overview2/vis/

[floridasun78]

Hawaii been on hot seat with hurr this year one miss and maybe landfall

[gatorcane]

Loop from Colorado State site:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Sciencerocks]

From the GOES-W FTP site: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeswest/overview2/vis/

Reminds me of a mixture of Hurricane Felix(2007) and hurricane Emily(2005).

[floridasun78]

look far outer band are very near Hawaii you cloud getting close big island

[NotSparta]

Getting some Jose vibes

[SunnyThoughts]

Will the new recon mission make it into the storm before the next advisory?

[Kingarabian]

It's simply not good that Lane continues to be stronger than forecast, especially with a track towards Maui or Oahu in the cards.

It's held up very well and is looking better than it ever has in it's life so far. The fact that it has survived some big wind shear nearby and basically bullied its way enhanced by its own environment has changed the forecast the past week.

Yeah basically since 155W, it has forced a favorable wind shear environment.

[1900hurricane]

Maysak '15 is actually the one that comes to mind for me.

[Chris90]

The structure on Lane is incredible. I think recon might find a pressure between 918-922, and maybe some SFMR readings in the 150-155kt range. Might be a little bullish there, but I'm taking into account the fact they found a 148kts flagged SFMR reading earlier, as well as the earlier dropsondes. I'm thinking some of those stronger winds aloft have probably worked their way to the surface at this point.