CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

VDM says that SFMR was legit, lets see what the CHPC says.

[Aric Dunn]

They will most certainly wait for the AF plane and do a blend as usual. either way we seen cat 5's with similar or lower recon FL.

fact of the matter is Hawaii can barely handle a minimal hurricane let alone a cat 2 or 3.. if it somehow manages to maintain major hurricane status or go through a ERC.. things are looking grim for the islands. We can only hope the lee side troughing ends up being less pronounced and Lane takes more of nw course wothout any direct eyewall interaction.

[CrazyC83]

They will most certainly wait for the AF plane and do a blend as usual. either way we seen cat 5's with similar or lower recon FL.

fact of the matter is Hawaii can barely handle a minimal hurricane let alone a cat 2 or 3.. if it somehow manages to maintain major hurricane status or go through a ERC.. things are looking grim for the islands. We can only hope the lee side troughing ends up being less pronounced and Lane takes more of nw course wothout any direct eyewall interaction.

To think the nightmare scenario of a category 4+ into Oahu is still on the table. Unlikely yes, impossible no.

[Cunxi Huang]

035100 1432N 15405W 7435 02257 9654 +131 //// 030141 146 135 073 01
035130 1431N 15404W 7219 02413 9534 +137 //// 039127 138 154 025 01
035200 1431N 15402W 7215 02341 9426 +165 +145 033099 108 152 004 00

How about that! We have an unflagged SFMR 154 kt!

[Aric Dunn]

They will most certainly wait for the AF plane and do a blend as usual. either way we seen cat 5's with similar or lower recon FL.

fact of the matter is Hawaii can barely handle a minimal hurricane let alone a cat 2 or 3.. if it somehow manages to maintain major hurricane status or go through a ERC.. things are looking grim for the islands. We can only hope the lee side troughing ends up being less pronounced and Lane takes more of nw course wothout any direct eyewall interaction.

To think the nightmare scenario of a category 4+ into Oahu is still on the table. Unlikely yes, impossible no.

yeah, however the west side of the big island still has large enough population and they are mostly elevated meaning likely higher winds.

the nightmare scenario is possible. but we dont need a cat 4 for that in Oahu.. a highend CAT 2 with a medium wind field is far too much.

The scary part is the HWRF .... pretty much puts cat 1 or 2 winds on nearly all of the islands..

[NotoSans]

WTPA42 PHFO 220453
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
645 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has strengthened
to a category 5 hurricane, and this special advisory represents an
update to the current intensity, and the forecast intensity through
the first 36 hours. No changes were made to the remainder of the
forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
rainfall anywhere in the state. As Lane is expected to be
slow-moving as it nears the islands, it will produce large and
damaging surf.

2. As Lane moves up from the southeast, the earliest potential
threat to land will be for the Big Island, where a Hurricane Warning
is now in effect. Preparations there should be rushed to completion
as tropical-storm force winds are forecast to arrive in the warning
area by late Wednesday or early Thursday. A Hurricane Watch remains
in effect for Maui County, and is now posted for Oahu, with
tropical-storm force winds possibly beginning Thursday or Thursday
night.

3. Due to a continued high degree of uncertainty on the forecast
track and intensity of Lane, hurricane impacts could be felt across
any of the Hawaiian Islands. It is too early to predict which, if
any, of the islands are directly impacted. Remember that life
threatening weather conditions can extend well away from the center
of the hurricane. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0430Z 14.5N 154.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.0N 155.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.0N 156.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.2N 156.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 18.6N 157.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 21.1N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 21.5N 161.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

[Ntxw]

AF plane is going in

[Siker]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032128934605778946

[storm_in_a_teacup]

They will most certainly wait for the AF plane and do a blend as usual. either way we seen cat 5's with similar or lower recon FL.

fact of the matter is Hawaii can barely handle a minimal hurricane let alone a cat 2 or 3.. if it somehow manages to maintain major hurricane status or go through a ERC.. things are looking grim for the islands. We can only hope the lee side troughing ends up being less pronounced and Lane takes more of nw course wothout any direct eyewall interaction.

To think the nightmare scenario of a category 4+ into Oahu is still on the table. Unlikely yes, impossible no.

yeah, however the west side of the big island still has large enough population and they are mostly elevated meaning likely higher winds.

the nightmare scenario is possible. but we dont need a cat 4 for that in Oahu.. a highend CAT 2 with a medium wind field is far too much.

The scary part is the HWRF .... pretty much puts cat 1 or 2 winds on nearly all of the islands..

Okay so everyone seems to be saying that Hawaii’s building codes are not built with hurricanes in mind. However I don’t feel like Houston’s buildings are built particularly hurricane resistant either, especially compared to Florida’s.
...Are Hawaii’s buildings really that much more vulnerable, or is it more the fact that it’s a state made of isolated islands?

[Alyono]

To think the nightmare scenario of a category 4+ into Oahu is still on the table. Unlikely yes, impossible no.

yeah, however the west side of the big island still has large enough population and they are mostly elevated meaning likely higher winds.

the nightmare scenario is possible. but we dont need a cat 4 for that in Oahu.. a highend CAT 2 with a medium wind field is far too much.

The scary part is the HWRF .... pretty much puts cat 1 or 2 winds on nearly all of the islands..

Okay so everyone seems to be saying that Hawaii’s building codes are not built with hurricanes in mind. However I don’t feel like Houston’s buildings are built particularly hurricane resistant either, especially compared to Florida’s.
...Are Hawaii’s buildings really that much more vulnerable, or is it more the fact that it’s a state made of isolated islands?

Many of Hawaii's structures cannot survive a cat 1. Iselle caused major damage to many as a tropical storm

[Ntxw]

yeah, however the west side of the big island still has large enough population and they are mostly elevated meaning likely higher winds.

the nightmare scenario is possible. but we dont need a cat 4 for that in Oahu.. a highend CAT 2 with a medium wind field is far too much.

The scary part is the HWRF .... pretty much puts cat 1 or 2 winds on nearly all of the islands..

Okay so everyone seems to be saying that Hawaii’s building codes are not built with hurricanes in mind. However I don’t feel like Houston’s buildings are built particularly hurricane resistant either, especially compared to Florida’s.
...Are Hawaii’s buildings really that much more vulnerable, or is it more the fact that it’s a state made of isolated islands?

Many of Hawaii's structures cannot survive a cat 1. Iselle caused major damage to many as a tropical storm

They are also many thousands of miles away from any land. You're just not going to send in supply trucks etc and help that easily should infrastructure fail.

[Kingarabian]

To think the nightmare scenario of a category 4+ into Oahu is still on the table. Unlikely yes, impossible no.

yeah, however the west side of the big island still has large enough population and they are mostly elevated meaning likely higher winds.

the nightmare scenario is possible. but we dont need a cat 4 for that in Oahu.. a highend CAT 2 with a medium wind field is far too much.

The scary part is the HWRF .... pretty much puts cat 1 or 2 winds on nearly all of the islands..

Okay so everyone seems to be saying that Hawaii’s building codes are not built with hurricanes in mind. However I don’t feel like Houston’s buildings are built particularly hurricane resistant either, especially compared to Florida’s.
...Are Hawaii’s buildings really that much more vulnerable, or is it more the fact that it’s a state made of isolated islands?

Two properties here, built in in the 70s as most Hawaii homes are. My properties barely handled TD Darby in 2016.

[CrazyC83]

Okay so everyone seems to be saying that Hawaii’s building codes are not built with hurricanes in mind. However I don’t feel like Houston’s buildings are built particularly hurricane resistant either, especially compared to Florida’s.
...Are Hawaii’s buildings really that much more vulnerable, or is it more the fact that it’s a state made of isolated islands?

Many of Hawaii's structures cannot survive a cat 1. Iselle caused major damage to many as a tropical storm

They are also many thousands of miles away from any land. You're just not going to send in supply trucks etc and help that easily should infrastructure fail.

That's the critical point. Everyone in Hawaii needs 14 days minimum (21 desirable) worth of supplies. It could easily take over a week to get anything to Hawaii if every island is devastated.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, however the west side of the big island still has large enough population and they are mostly elevated meaning likely higher winds.

the nightmare scenario is possible. but we dont need a cat 4 for that in Oahu.. a highend CAT 2 with a medium wind field is far too much.

The scary part is the HWRF .... pretty much puts cat 1 or 2 winds on nearly all of the islands..

Okay so everyone seems to be saying that Hawaii’s building codes are not built with hurricanes in mind. However I don’t feel like Houston’s buildings are built particularly hurricane resistant either, especially compared to Florida’s.
...Are Hawaii’s buildings really that much more vulnerable, or is it more the fact that it’s a state made of isolated islands?

Two properties here, built in in the 70s as most Hawaii homes are. My properties barely handled TD Darby in 2016.

I would suggest not staying.. probably find a sturdy shelter just in case

[storm_in_a_teacup]

yeah, however the west side of the big island still has large enough population and they are mostly elevated meaning likely higher winds.

the nightmare scenario is possible. but we dont need a cat 4 for that in Oahu.. a highend CAT 2 with a medium wind field is far too much.

The scary part is the HWRF .... pretty much puts cat 1 or 2 winds on nearly all of the islands..

Okay so everyone seems to be saying that Hawaii’s building codes are not built with hurricanes in mind. However I don’t feel like Houston’s buildings are built particularly hurricane resistant either, especially compared to Florida’s.
...Are Hawaii’s buildings really that much more vulnerable, or is it more the fact that it’s a state made of isolated islands?

Two properties here, built in in the 70s as most Hawaii homes are. My properties barely handled TD Darby in 2016.

Oh no...I'm so sorry I had no idea.
Well thank you at least for answering my questions and not just downvoting them like r/tropicalweather.

I wish you the best of luck.
I wish I had something better to say but honestly everything I can think of will just feel hopelessly inadequate and pointless.

[Kingarabian]

<snip>

Do you have a graphic? Cant see that on tropical tidbits.

[somethingfunny]

What building materials are Hawaiian houses made of? I guess I've always assumed they were concrete block structures but...obviously not. Tropical depression Darby causing significant damage seems unbelievable though! Of course it bears remembering that windspeeds increase with elevation and advisories are written for sealevel windspeeds.

[Kingarabian]

What building materials are Hawaiian houses made of? I guess I've always assumed they were concrete block structures but...obviously not. Tropical depression Darby causing significant damage seems unbelievable though! Of course it bears remembering that windspeeds increase with elevation and advisories are written for sealevel windspeeds.

Termite eaten wood and drywall.

[Alyono]

00z HWRF putting 120kt hurricane eyewall on the western coast of the big Island.... no good..

and then sending a 105kt hurricane to Oahu ...

Do you have a graphic? Cant see that on tropical tidbits.

disregard that post by Aric. It is not accurate.

HWRF has a cat 1 into Maui and a TS into Oahu

[NotoSans]

Intensity seems to have levelled off now as per latest recon pass.