ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Abdullah]

We've got 2 planes ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶g̶r̶o̶u̶n̶d̶ in the air now.

Mission 6 hasn't reported In 20 minutes, though.

[GCANE]

Core continuing to heat up.
This afternoon it was 7.5C above ambient.
Now its 10C

[Ubuntwo]

That’s right. I knew Ivan was 04 but Dennis which I think hit Santa Rosa County would have been the last one. Seems crazy to have gone 13 years since a major hurricane landfall in the FL Panhandle. Not saying Michael will be a 3, but there is a reasonable shot.

Florida went 11 years without any hurricanes, so not too crazy.

. But the fact that Florida went 11 years without a hurricane at all is down right right crazy! I didn’t realize that! Is that a record? Was that the gap between Wilma and Matthew?

Between Wilma and Hermine.

[ozonepete]

You can see the eye on this SWIR loop. Motion still due north as it rides up the 85 degree longitude line.

[ozonepete]

Also clearly a HUGE convective blowup now around the north and west sides.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm hopping out of here tomorrow with the RV, hope we have a intact home when we return. This is a sickening feeling, you feel helpless and nervous.

[GCANE]

The last convective burst has some spin to it.
Classic indication of a Vortical Hot Tower.
Angular momentum from it will align and expand the vorts at all levels.
Eye is popping right after it fired.

Basically seeing a historical TC in the making.
Easily a major when it gets over the Loop Current.
Very likely a notch higher on approach to the coast.

[DestinHurricane]

Do you guys think the track could shift east or west at 11PM advisory

[Ritzcraker]

Levi Cowan

[youtube]https://youtu.be/YCEYaZOA6-I[/youtube]

[jdjaguar]

I'm hopping out of here tomorrow with the RV, hope we have a intact home when we return. This is a sickening feeling, you feel helpless and nervous.

i would leave at 4 am to beat the bulk of the traffic.

Good luck and stay safe

[DestinHurricane]

Levi Cowan

https://youtu.be/nJYURnnfgWw

That was a month ago for florence

[Ritzcraker]

Levi Cowan

https://youtu.be/nJYURnnfgWw

That was a month ago for florence

Not sure how that happened!... will fix

[Evil Jeremy]

Do you guys think the track could shift east or west at 11PM advisory

Expect minimal shifts. Doesn't really impact the evacuation order you are under at the moment.

[SunnyThoughts]

I'm hopping out of here tomorrow with the RV, hope we have a intact home when we return. This is a sickening feeling, you feel helpless and nervous.

Many of us here know how you feel, been through it countless times myself. Good luck and stay safe! We will all be hoping for the best for all you guys. I'm hoping I can keep -power here in SAnta Rosa County...but I doubt it. Probably high end tropical storm foce winds, maybe minimal cat 1 will knock out power no doubt.

[johngaltfla]

Do not be shocked if we see a high end Cat 3 tomorrow over the central Gulf. I remember watching way too many storms increase in intensity in just hours once they got into the GOM. Prayers to all our friends in North Florida and help is already standing by as we're seeing a lot of first responders prepare to leave from here in the morning.

[La Sirena]

I'm hopping out of here tomorrow with the RV, hope we have a intact home when we return. This is a sickening feeling, you feel helpless and nervous.

Safe travels....I know that Dothan has some places offering free RV sites but I’m not sure the weather will be much better here.

[GCANE]

Off-the-scale rain rate.
Firing on all cylinders.

[MississippiWx]

With the intense convection in the western semicircle, I would expect more wobbles to the west soon.

[MidnightRain]

Do not be shocked if we see a high end Cat 3 tomorrow over the central Gulf. I remember watching way too many storms increase in intensity in just hours once they got into the GOM. Prayers to all our friends in North Florida and help is already standing by as we're seeing a lot of first responders prepare to leave from here in the morning.

Dennis came to my mind. He bombed after getting past Cuba. Don't underestimate the Gulf.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Dean4Storms ,

Stay safe.