EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS stronger through 24 hours again:

[Kingarabian]

Cat 5, 908mb through hour 60 on the 12z GFS

[cycloneye]

Latest Meso loop.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUL 2018 Time : 171539 UTC
Lat : 12:07:15 N Lon : 107:50:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 993.2mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 3.7

Center Temp : -65.2C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Center fix is way off

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,for the first time Euro has much lower pressures.72 hours.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ27 KNES 011818
TCSENP

A. 07E (FABIO)

B. 01/1800Z

C. 12.2N

D. 107.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LOW LEVER CENTER LIKELY LOCATED 1/3 DEG INTO OVERCAST
RESULTS IN DT=3.5. MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 55 kts.

EP, 07, 2018070118, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1079W, 55, 996, TS

[gatorcane]

Looking good:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[cycloneye]

SHIP up to cat 5.RI probability of 25kt is at 81%

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  FABIO       EP072018  07/01/18  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    55    65    76    89   104   130   146   143   127   107    86    68    53
V (KT) LAND       55    65    76    89   104   130   146   143   127   107    86    68    53
V (KT) LGEM       55    67    79    91   104   126   133   119   104    85    62    45    33
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         8     7     7     4     7     7     7     9     7     6     1     4     8
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1     2     3     4     3     2     1     5     6    15    16    11     8
SHEAR DIR         52    51    49    23    38    38    52    45    11    59   126   206   200
SST (C)         28.2  28.5  28.8  28.9  28.8  28.3  27.3  26.5  26.3  25.6  22.0  22.8  21.6
POT. INT. (KT)   147   150   153   154   153   148   138   130   128   121    83    92    79
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.4   0.7   0.8   1.1   1.2   1.0   0.9   0.6   0.9
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     8     7     5     4     4     3     1     0
700-500 MB RH     73    74    72    74    74    69    69    63    62    59    57    55    49
MODEL VTX (KT)    25    27    29    32    36    41    47    48    46    41    35    30    26
850 MB ENV VOR    54    57    61    58    62    73    83    85    64    54    35    38     0
200 MB DIV        67    91   102   104   116    51    52   -16   -11    20     7    18    22
700-850 TADV       0     0     0    -4    -3    -4    -2     4     4    -3     9    29    20
LAND (KM)        826   871   918   966  1026  1082  1132  1223  1305  1423  1499  1621  1714
LAT (DEG N)     12.3  12.6  12.8  13.1  13.4  14.1  15.0  15.9  17.0  18.2  19.6  21.2  23.0
LONG(DEG W)    107.9 109.1 110.2 111.3 112.3 114.4 116.8 119.2 121.7 124.2 126.7 129.3 131.9
STM SPEED (KT)    12    11    11    11    11    11    12    13    13    14    14    15    15
HEAT CONTENT      42    33    39    37    19    14     4     1     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11      CX,CY:  -9/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  600  (MEAN=584)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  11.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           82.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   7.   7.   7.   7.   5.   3.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   8.   9.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   8.   8.   8.   7.   6.
  PERSISTENCE            5.   7.   9.   9.   7.   5.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   3.   5.  10.  16.  20.  26.  28.  22.  14.   8.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  RI POTENTIAL           1.   4.   9.  15.  30.  39.  32.  15.   3.  -7. -15. -22.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          10.  21.  34.  49.  75.  91.  88.  72.  52.  31.  13.  -2.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   55. LAT, LON:   12.3   107.9

      ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO      07/01/18  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   97.3     40.5  to  149.3        0.52          10.8
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :   20.0    -22.0  to   44.0        0.64          15.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :    6.4     19.6  to    1.4        0.72          14.1
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   34.0      1.8  to  106.7        0.31           4.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   96.0    -33.0  to  156.2        0.68          11.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   11.6     37.8  to    2.1        0.73          10.4
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   55.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.94          13.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  120.8    721.6  to  -82.5        0.75          -8.9
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0     62.3  to    0.0        1.00           1.5
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -0.9      2.2  to   -1.9        0.75           1.6
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  45% is   7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  81% is   6.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  75% is   9.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  67% is  11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  52% is  13.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  62% is   9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  48% is   8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  10% is   2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    44.7%   80.7%   74.6%   66.7%   52.4%   61.8%   48.0%   10.1%
    Logistic:    47.5%   77.6%   67.7%   58.4%   27.0%   66.5%   43.8%    6.2%
    Bayesian:    77.4%   94.1%   95.5%   94.5%   50.3%   83.3%   42.2%    0.0%
   Consensus:    56.5%   84.1%   79.3%   73.2%   43.2%   70.5%   44.7%    5.5%
       DTOPS:    67.0%   98.0%   98.0%   91.0%   86.0%   98.0%   67.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO      07/01/18  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

                          CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


[Yellow Evan]

SHIPS seems quite bullish here. This doesn't have the convection to reach or even come close to Cat 5. Still expecting 115 knots. SAB DT of T3.5 makes sense. Not sure why they went FT BO MET though glad the NHC ignored it.

[Kingarabian]

SHIPS seems quite bullish here. This doesn't have the convection to reach or even come close to Cat 5. Still expecting 115 knots. SAB DT of T3.5 makes sense. Not sure why they went FT BO MET though glad the NHC ignored it.

Why do you say that?
There's a lot of cold convection in all quadrants.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,for the first time Euro has much lower pressures.72 hours.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/GUMRM2y.png[img]

Yeah, they all finally caved again. It was odd why they dropped it in the first place.

[Kingarabian]

We'll know if Fabio is going to make it to a Cat.5 on the Dvorak scale as soon as it enters a RI phase.

I've seen plenty of systems start out with even colder convection than what Fabio currently has, and lose most of it when they enter RI and develop an eye.

[Yellow Evan]

SHIPS seems quite bullish here. This doesn't have the convection to reach or even come close to Cat 5. Still expecting 115 knots. SAB DT of T3.5 makes sense. Not sure why they went FT BO MET though glad the NHC ignored it.

Why do you say that?
There's a lot of cold convection in all quadrants.

Most of the storm is LG on Black Dvorak, with patches of B south of the center. Very little CMG and no CDG.

[Kingarabian]

SHIPS seems quite bullish here. This doesn't have the convection to reach or even come close to Cat 5. Still expecting 115 knots. SAB DT of T3.5 makes sense. Not sure why they went FT BO MET though glad the NHC ignored it.

Why do you say that?
There's a lot of cold convection in all quadrants.

Most of the storm is LG on Black Dvorak, with patches of B south of the center. Very little CMG and no CDG.

Agreed, but all that is likely to change as it's still a developing tropical storm transitioning into a hurricane -- especially based on microwave imagery. I still don't see a developed core:



12z GFS doesn't make it a hurricane until another 12-18hours. So it's current structure is going to change.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS had Fabio dropping to 999mb in 6 hours, 993mb in 12 hours, and 989mb in 18 hours. NHC currently has Fabio @ 996mb. Well on track.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Fabio's presentation continues to improve on visible, IR, and
microwave imagery. Although a pronounced dry slot is still present
just north and east of the low-level center, convection appears to
be increasing, suggesting that the cyclone is getting closer to
closing off its inner core. The initial intensity has been
increased to 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak fix from TAFB and an
earlier SATCON estimate of 53 kt.

The statistical intensity guidance continues to forecast a
remarkable rate of intensification for Fabio over the next two days.
The DSHP and LGEM models both bring Fabio to near or above category
5 strength within 48 hours, while the SHIPS RII and DTOPS models
suggest there is a greater than 50 percent probability of an
increase of 40 kt over the next 24 hours. On the other hand, the
dynamical HWRF and HMON models show only limited strengthening.
Given that those two models both missed the previous two rapid
intensification cases this season, and the fact that the warm SSTs
and very low shear seem indicative of rapid intensification, the
forecast favors the statistical models, and shows Fabio becoming a
major hurricane on Tuesday. By 72 h, Fabio will be moving over
cooler waters and into a much more stable environment which should
cause rapid weakening to begin. Despite the very high rate of
intensification shown by the NHC forecast, it is actually lower than
the HCCA and FSSE models, and lies between those and the simple
intensity consensus IVCN. By the end of the forecast period, the
forecast is close to all of the intensity consensus aids.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11. A late-arriving WindSat
pass showed that the center of Fabio was a little north of the
previous estimate, so the best track and forecast have been
adjusted slightly in that direction. Otherwise, no change has been
made to the track forecast or reasoning. A mid-level ridge to
the north should keep the cyclone moving west-northwestward at a
similar forward speed through most of the forecast period. The NHC
track forecast remains near the various consensus aids, and falls in
the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.4N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.9N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.5N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 15.2N 116.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 17.2N 122.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Kingarabian]

Large convective burst occurring just west of the LLC.

Some smaller convective bursts also taking place southwest of the center.

[cycloneye]

Interesting part of discussion about the preferred models.

The statistical intensity guidance continues to forecast a
remarkable rate of intensification for Fabio over the next two days.
The DSHP and LGEM models both bring Fabio to near or above category
5 strength within 48 hours, while the SHIPS RII and DTOPS models
suggest there is a greater than 50 percent probability of an
increase of 40 kt over the next 24 hours. On the other hand, the
dynamical HWRF and HMON models show only limited strengthening.
Given that those two models both missed the previous two rapid
intensification cases this season, and the fact that the warm SSTs
and very low shear seem indicative of rapid intensification, the
forecast favors the statistical models, and shows Fabio becoming a
major hurricane on Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,inner core forming now.