ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I smell a PTC at 5 PM or 11 PM.

I would imagine so..

[Aric Dunn]

a new circ (center of loop) has developed/come out of the convection to the north a little. the old one appears to be elongating.

regardless convection is maintaining and expanding. all signs of a good surface convergence.

could easily see a TD/TS by morning

[Abdullah]

Depression at 0z? It seems to be organizing fast.The shear is lowering, toasty temperatures, and convection starting up in the Far Western Caribbean. The center is almost surrounded with clouds and on the east side, deep convection.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan video about 91L.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... next-week/

[chaser1]

a new circ (center of loop) has developed/come out of the convection to the north a little. the old one appears to be elongating.

regardless convection is maintaining and expanding. all signs of a good surface convergence.

could easily see a TD/TS by morning

https://image.ibb.co/ez9bEK/image.gif

Aric, not sure what spot you're talking about but i'm seeing a COC right around 18N & 86 W, along or just under the western edge of the convection. We're probably talking about the same thing though, as the prior LLC seems to no longer be dominant and seemingly spit out of the broader mid level column

[tropicwatch]

NHC will be initiating advisories at 4 PM CDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

[ouragans]

I smell a PTC at 5 PM or 11 PM.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1048668683072155649

[wxman57]

Depression at 0z? It seems to be organizing fast.The shear is lowering, toasty temperatures, and convection starting up in the Far Western Caribbean. The center is almost surrounded with clouds and on the east side, deep convection.

Not a chance. It's quite poorly-organized and under very strong wind shear. Monday will be the day.

[Aric Dunn]

Depression at 0z? It seems to be organizing fast.The shear is lowering, toasty temperatures, and convection starting up in the Far Western Caribbean. The center is almost surrounded with clouds and on the east side, deep convection.

Not a chance. It's quite poorly-organized and under very strong wind shear. Monday will be the day.

Tomorrow morning likely 11am.

convection is quite organized. classic sheared convection. shear does not limit it from being upgraded.

there are multiple vorts at the moment but with the current convection, it wont take long to consolidate.

[wxman57]

I can't say I disagree with the NHC's track. They have the exact landfall point and timing of my track issued 2 hours ago. The only difference is that they went 60 kts and I went 55 kts. Still lots of uncertainty as to timing and intensity.

[GCANE]

Right on time.
Popups firing off over the Yucatan.
Very heavy over Belize.
Will add significant low to mid-level moisture into the system overnight.
Could see some fireworks at DMAX.

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is becoming much more defined. Also looks like a large burst over that llc is about to start.

and soo it begins..

[MetroMike]

Circ is becoming much more defined. Also looks like a large burst over that llc is about to start.

and soo it begins..

https://image.ibb.co/k1xieU/image.gif

Starting to get ramped up.

[Aric Dunn]

If it does not slow down it will be inland in the next couple hours. that will slow things down a good deal.

[Frank P]

If it does not slow down it will be inland in the next couple hours. that will slow things down a good deal.

That exposed LLC sure looks like it is heading WNW towards land to me too on the vis sat loops..

[NDG]

It's being transforming little by little during the day, with an outflow channel now on its NE quadrant as the ULL keeps moving out of its way little by little. This is shaping up to be a big system typical of monsoonal gyres, notice 97E rotating towards future to be Michael, rotating around the main gyre, these two vorticities will consolidate late tomorrow night over the Yucatan Channel, until then don't expect much intensification for the next 18-24 hrs. IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

THere is a much stronger circ that has developed right near Rotan Island. very high angular momentum with it and lower shear. it is rotating around the other circ. but has a lot of convection building with it.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

As of 00:00 UTC Oct 07, 2018:

Location: 18.5°N 86.6°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 110 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[Frank P]

From what little I can tell on the colorless IR sat loops the northern part of the elongated low level center is slowly moving westward and getting closer to the coast... or it could just all be my imagination as well...

[Aric Dunn]

I smell an upgrade coming.. they rarely do a 11pm upgrade but by 5am we should see it.