EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

It's intensifying fast so maybe it'll ERC before recon gets to it assuming the intensifying period ends before.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 OCT 2018 Time : 214536 UTC
Lat : 17:12:35 N Lon : 106:56:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 946.8mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +5.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Hello WMG.

[Yellow Evan]

[EquusStorm]

Hurricane Willa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
430 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...

Satellite images indicate that Willa continues to rapidly intensify,
and maximum winds are estimated to have increased to near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1054139263732891648

[supercane4867]

Wow that special advisory just came out of nowhere

[Cyclenall]

Just look at the difference 7 hours has made:

*images*

And imagine what Willa will look like in the next 7 hours.

My aggravation has been relieved and the SDD floater page is back up just for Willa . Two questions: Why is it back up just for now and not permanently (and not for Hurricane Michael), and to the person here who first posted a floater image how did you know the site was back up? I checked it 18 hours ago and nadda.

[supercane4867]

[Highteeld]

Yeah, there's probably no way that Willa will get to Patty's top strength... but 150 knots is not out of the question for Willa. Convection will probably cool off when the sun goes down assuming no ERC, so we'll see how good her CDO can get.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 OCT 2018 Time : 221536 UTC
Lat : 17:16:12 N Lon : 107:00:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 946.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +9.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

[CrazyC83]

This will likely end up in the league of Kenna or Rick at this point...agreed, Patricia was something else altogether though, there is no evidence yet of much CDG.

[wxmann_91]

Willa vs Patty. A more fair comparison to be made later tonight, but here's what we have now.

*loops*

The Patty loop is too far into her category 5 out-of-handness, a loop when she was still around 90-120 knots would be suitable. I don't have one.

I didn't have one either... So I posted it knowing that I'd get some flack... but it was all I could find lol

Here's a loop of Patricia when it was beginning to bomb out. Much colder cloud tops.

[Highteeld]

Rick 2009:

Willa:

Kenna:
Can't find any dvorak.

[storminabox]

The amount of storms that have eclipsed category 4 intensity in the Eastern Pacific this year is just astounding...

[Kingarabian]

It's not too far off from Rick.

Hmm... judging by those images, Rick could've definitely been stronger than what the satellite estimates showed. I also recall it had a picture perfect eyewall microwave presentation. Intense and well defined in all quadrants.

[DioBrando]

Likely will be Kanna's younger sibling

[NotoSans]

The latest intermediate advisory has Willa at 120 knots. Sounds reasonable to me.

[Ntxw]

Textbook late season October EPAC hurricane.