ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

So we can stop with the Florida “all clear” posts right? It’s still at 6-7 day forecast...

I would until all models and ensembles don’t go there or the motion is away from there

[HurricaneEric]

So we can stop with the Florida “all clear” posts right? It’s still at 6-7 day forecast...

Don’t you usually want to be the target this far out? Typically that means you’re safe lol. The recent trends are for something far more south and west. The trend is your friend.

[tolakram]

Here's the end of the latest 12Z UK run.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Since it has now turned pretty much west. the current 12z euro had it moving nw for another 24 hours.. I smell a south shift in the models later once the motion is ingested. likely not until the 00z run

Might be due to the weakening wouldn't you say? I know the weakness or strength of the storm won't really impact the final outcome for this case but it could influence small changes in the forecast for sure.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So we can stop with the Florida “all clear” posts right? It’s still at 6-7 day forecast...

Don’t you usually want to be the target this far out? Typically that means you’re safe lol. The recent trends are for something far more south and west. The trend is your friend.

10 days out sure but this is getting close to 5 days. I am nervous here in Wilmington, NC. I visited Fort Fisher aquarium today. They have a sign post of surge from different storms over the years. You had Fran, Floyd, and Bonnie all with significant surge. I was like, "Where is Hazel?", it puzzled me. Until I saw that the top of the sign post was in the trees. On top of the post was Hazel, really eerie. Put things into perspective. The models are starting to hone in. Really hope it finds a way OTS.

[otowntiger]

[quote="tolakram"]Here's the end of the latest 12Z UK run.

Is the 'UK' model the same thing as he UKMet model?

[BobHarlem]

So we can stop with the Florida “all clear” posts right? It’s still at 6-7 day forecast...

Don’t you usually want to be the target this far out? Typically that means you’re safe lol. The recent trends are for something far more south and west. The trend is your friend.

10 days out sure but this is getting close to 5 days. I am nervous here in Wilmington, NC. I visited Fort Fisher aquarium today. They have a sign post of surge from different storms over the years. You had Fran, Floyd, and Bonnie all with significant surge. I was like, "Where is Hazel?", it puzzled me. Until I saw that the top of the sign post was in the trees. On top of the post was Hazel, really eerie. Put things into perspective. The models are starting to hone in. Really hope it finds a way OTS.

This one?

[lando]

How does her current position/ recent movement compare with the 12z gfs and euro model predictions for this time? Is she south of those forecast points?

[MississippiWx]

One good thing about the UKMET is that is usually has a west bias (overdone ridging). Probably will be the case here too, but we will see.

[chaser1]

Since it has now turned pretty much west. the current 12z euro had it moving nw for another 24 hours.. I smell a south shift in the models later once the motion is ingested. likely not until the 00z run

Agreed. The deck of cards tends to get re-shuffled following a changed initialization. Of course now it'll equally be interesting to see just how fast the storms near-term westward motion will be, especially as compared to where prior (GFS, EURO, etc) global models eventually ceased Florences' westward motion as a resulting of the storm feeling the expected weakness in the W. Atlantic ridge. We're all pretty sure there will be a weakness in the ridge in the few days to come. Problem is.... what if there's no storm quite there to turn more poleward in response to it? Timing is SO everything.

[Aric Dunn]

One good thing about the UKMET is that is usually has a west bias (overdone ridging). Probably will be the case here too, but we will see.

except with IRma and Ike. and many more.

[tolakram]

Is the 'UK' model the same thing as he UKMet model?

Yes.

[tarheelprogrammer]

One good thing about the UKMET is that is usually has a west bias (overdone ridging). Probably will be the case here too, but we will see.

except with IRma and Ike. and many more.

It did not do good with Gordon, but it has nailed storms in the past so it cannot be ignored.

[tpinnola]

Not sure what my thoughts are here. This would re-face the Jersey shore and the south shore of Long Island. A southwest trend is no good either as that will most certainly bring land fall as well (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina). The OTS option seems like it's becoming less likely.



Thoughts?

[otowntiger]

Since it has now turned pretty much west. the current 12z euro had it moving nw for another 24 hours.. I smell a south shift in the models later once the motion is ingested. likely not until the 00z run

Agreed. The deck of cards tends to get re-shuffled following a changed initialization. Of course now it'll equally be interesting to see just how fast the storms near-term westward motion will be, especially as compared to where prior (GFS, EURO, etc) global models eventually ceased Florences' westward motion as a resulting of the storm feeling the expected weakness in the W. Atlantic ridge. We're all pretty sure there will be a weakness in the ridge in the few days to come. Problem is.... what if there's no storm quite there to turn more poleward in response to it? Timing is SO everything.

Of course if there is no storm toride around the edge of the ridge, isn't all this discussion/analysis (and in some case hand wringing) for naught? I mean yes, a weaker storm won't feel the ridge, etc. but if its so weak it won't matter where it goes really, unless it generates a lot of inland flooding as a tropical low.

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET ensembles...

Note that the initialization of this 12Z UK ensemble is ~50 miles SW of the actual center, which is denoted with the H symbol. That is enough for me to hypothesize that the mean is likely to verify too far SW and that the more northern members going toward the Carolinas are as of now much more likely to end up closer to reality vs the members heading to FL and probably even GA.

Looking even more deeply into this: the 2 PM EDT actual location is ~24.8N, 49.2W. So, it is nearing 25N already (despite the northerly component of motion decreasing as expected) and Flo is only just past 49W. Looking at the ~25 members, every one is currently SW of reality. Only a very few get barely N of 25W just past 50W. Even the operational gets up to 25.2N at hour 24 and is north of just about all of the members.

So, I'd advise those in FL and probably even in GA to not panic about this 12Z UKMET ensemble, which on the surface is obviously very scary looking. I feel confident that later runs will correct north. Adding to this confidence is that the 12Z UKMET ensemble mean is much further south than any other 12Z ensemble mean.

None of this is to say that FL and GA are safe of course. But I don't think the chances of a hit are as high as the 12Z UK ensembles suggest. There's still a chance but not that high.

[otowntiger]

Is the 'UK' model the same thing as he UKMet model?

Yes.

Thanks. Then it has shifted north by a good bit!

[ava_ati]

when it comes to the UKMET, which one has the models been doing the UKMET coming to the ECMWF and GFS or have the ECMWF and GFS been trending toward the UKMET? Ukmet has stayed pretty solid on its southern solution while the others were OTS... Here we are and the members of the ECMWF are starting to come more inline with what the UKMET has been saying, I even noticed the ECMWF picked up on the SW motion around 25N. Trends trends trends are you friend in these situations, which members shift 1k miles each run and which ones make slight adjustments?

[ScottNAtlanta]

From the 5pm discussion at NHC

Low- to mid-level ridging should cause
Florence to turn toward the west-northwest and west between 12-48
hours while the cyclone recovers from the strong shear. Thereafter,
Florence is anticipated to become a deep cyclone again, but an even
stronger ridge should maintain the west-northwestward motion, at a
faster speed, through day 5. The ridge is forecast to be
sufficiently strong such that some track models show a motion just
south of due west during the next 12-36 hours. Beyond day 3, the
track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to differing
evolutions of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic.

[edu2703]