ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

I think these windshear maps are wrong, there's no way Michael would have had this good satellite presentation if windshear would have been this bad of 25-30 knots over its coc, especially the mid level shear that it shows.

https://i.imgur.com/hpxt1PM.gif
https://i.imgur.com/fJFx1cA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/W6V081l.jpg

I agree. The nhc mentioned that last night as well.

Looks to me that the hurricane is expanding more to the west against the dryer air? How?

The sat only shows a certain level of moisture in the air. Look at Gonzo's drops highlighted by GCANE to see that most of the column is saturated.

[NDG]

two questions it looks to be going a tad more west than nnw do you think from the radar posts here???? and how large from end to end did they say it was?
My daughters is supposed to get married on the Gulf Saturday in Fort Walton Beach

Best way to track it is with the actual recons' fixes, it is too far away from radar right now to accurately show a correct heading. Even if landfall is still over Panama City and hurricane force winds stay to the east of Ft Walton Beach, there's probably going to be a lot of beach erosion, I see the Euro showing at least 10-15 foot waves reaching that area if not closer to 20' waves.

[pcolaman]

I think these windshear maps are wrong, there's no way Michael would have had this good satellite presentation if windshear would have been this bad of 25-30 knots over its coc, especially the mid level shear that it shows.

https://i.imgur.com/hpxt1PM.gif
https://i.imgur.com/fJFx1cA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/W6V081l.jpg

I agree. The nhc mentioned that last night as well.

Looks to me that the hurricane is expanding more to the west against the dryer air? How?

Also the air mass looks to be saturated more to the west of the storm . Could it be creating its own enviroment ?

[DestinHurricane]

Could we get a reverse storm surge in Miramar Beach?

[GCANE]

AF306 just went thru the eye.
VDM coming shortly.

[GCANE]

Could we get a reverse storm surge in Miramar Beach?

Tampa Bay too

[weathermimmi]

yes and hwy 98 is often breached even with a much smaller storm and power outages as well. It looks almost as if the dry air has zero effect so far and is being pushed away. Can someone restate when aprox is the NNe turn expected?

[DestinHurricane]

Could we get a reverse storm surge in Miramar Beach?

Tampa Bay too

Then why are they predicting 6-9 foot surge in Miramar Beach

[FLpanhandle91]

yes and hwy 98 is often breached even with a much smaller storm and power outages as well. It looks almost as if the dry air has zero effect so far and is being pushed away. Can someone restate when aprox is the NNe turn expected?

I believe the storm is supposed to approach 87W and then turn. Tough to tell exactly due to the resolution of the models. Look for thr northward turn to happen late tonight.

[Centralflamama]

Would anyone care to speculate about flights out of Tampa Wednesday morning? Flight would be headed to N.C.

[tolakram]

two questions it looks to be going a tad more west than nnw do you think from the radar posts here???? and how large from end to end did they say it was?
My daughters is supposed to get married on the Gulf Saturday in Fort Walton Beach

It will be gone saturday

And much of the area will be without power, some areas unreachable due to downed trees and power lines.

[OverlandHurricane]

two questions it looks to be going a tad more west than nnw do you think from the radar posts here???? and how large from end to end did they say it was?
My daughters is supposed to get married on the Gulf Saturday in Fort Walton Beach

Considering that much of town and all of the beach areas of Fort Walton Beach are under mandatory evacuation orders, don't be surprised if the venue has already either postponed or outright cancelled.

[CronkPSU]

Would anyone care to speculate about flights out of Tampa Wednesday morning? Flight would be headed to N.C.

.

Won’t be an issue, they will be up and running

[KWT]

Convection nearly wrapped the eyewall now and the center is warming a little now as well which Isa other sign to watch.

The worst case would be for the inner core to get ramped up a little later, in that setup there probably isn't time for a EWRC.

[NDG]

AF VDM shows 970mb but I think the dropsonde missed the lowest pressure, 17 knot winds when it splashed at the surface.

000
URNT12 KNHC 091208
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/11:45:50Z
B. 24.57 deg N 086.11 deg W
C. 700 mb 2837 m
D. 970 mb
E. 090 deg 17 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. E36/35/28
H. 82 kt
I. 325 deg 13 nm 11:41:30Z
J. 078 deg 83 kt
K. 326 deg 18 nm 11:40:00Z
L. 74 kt
M. 132 deg 14 nm 11:50:00Z
N. 222 deg 98 kt
O. 133 deg 18 nm 11:51:00Z
P. 14 C / 3049 m
Q. 16 C / 3044 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF306 1014A MICHAEL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 98 KT 133 / 18 NM 11:51:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 321 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1049633069785845765

[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

[GCANE]

Radial fingers, gravity waves, and overshooting tops.
Just need a pink donut and another cup of joe.

[jdjaguar]

two questions it looks to be going a tad more west than nnw do you think from the radar posts here???? and how large from end to end did they say it was?
My daughters is supposed to get married on the Gulf Saturday in Fort Walton Beach

It will be gone saturday

And much of the area will be without power, some areas unreachable due to downed trees and power lines.

Exactly.

I have business meetings next week
In Sandestin, and those more than likely
Will be cancelled, barring an earlier shift to the NE