CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[galaxy401]

Going to break this unusual silence here. Has there ever been any documented hurricane strikes on Oahu and Maui? What are the conditions in Honolulu? Hope the people are taking this storm seriously.

[OahuWahine]

Going to break this unusual silence here. Has there ever been any documented hurricane strikes on Oahu and Maui? What are the conditions in Honolulu? Hope the people are taking this storm seriously.

No landfalling hurricanes on Oahu or Maui that I know of. Currently on Oahu the weather is sunny and breezy. There are some showers on the windward side but it's just trade wind type rain.

[Ubuntwo]

Going to break this unusual silence here. Has there ever been any documented hurricane strikes on Oahu and Maui? What are the conditions in Honolulu? Hope the people are taking this storm seriously.

Almost. An unnamed hurricane made landfall on the Big Island in 1871. Records are quite poor, but data would indicate that after making landfall on the big island, it passed very close to Maui, and damage there was consistent with that of a category 3 hurricane, A good analysis of the storm can be found here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0333.1

[typhoonty]

Going to break this unusual silence here. Has there ever been any documented hurricane strikes on Oahu and Maui? What are the conditions in Honolulu? Hope the people are taking this storm seriously.

No one alive has experienced a hurricane strike on Oahu or Maui as far as I'm aware. And my friend who works at TWC told me yesterday the city of Honolulu does not have a hurricane plan. I think from what I've heard from friends in Miami and meteorologists that work in Hawaii is that they are taking it more seriously than any other storm, but about 25% of residents aren't taking necessary precautions.

[Nimbus]

Forecast to remain a major till almost 20N but at least the core winds should be far enough west of the Big island at that time. Mobile homes withstand category 1 winds, (they carry modular home parts on the interstate highways). Its mostly tree branches bringing down power lines and the core winds on the northeast side of this storm may be the only Cat 1 winds making landfall. All it needs is a couple good gulps of cooler dry inflow and we won't have to worry about a major hurricane making landfall.

[tolakram]

Vis loop. You can see the shear off the the west.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-159&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

[CrazyC83]

Going to break this unusual silence here. Has there ever been any documented hurricane strikes on Oahu and Maui? What are the conditions in Honolulu? Hope the people are taking this storm seriously.

The last one may have been in 1871, but that was before HURDAT in the Pacific. Not since 1950 have hurricane conditions been recorded on either set of islands.

[gatorcane]

Doesn’t look like he is weakening does he?

But the shear is there, looks at those clouds off to the NW of Lane racing NE.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[boulderrr]

00Z

[Kingarabian]

Doesn’t look like he is weakening does he?

But the shear is there, looks at those clouds off to the NW of Lane racing NE.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Yeah this is a major problem. Shear over the system has only helped it. It refuses to weaken, other than to inner dynamics.

[floridasun78]

[quote="boulderrr"]00Z
[/quotelook like going close call but not get eye look bend to west before hitting islands

[Alyono]

it's weakening now

[drezee]

Outflow has turned poleward. This is not a good sign...north turn is imminent...

[Kingarabian]

it's weakening now

Not as fast as the GFS and Euro though.



Weakening to me would be the eye becoming cloud filled. These fluctuations look the same since it recovered its core near 150W.This is a healthy 6.0 not too far away from a 6.5

One thing that has to be factored in vs. the shear, is the amount of deeper warmer water in the proximity of the islands, and a much more moist environment.

[Aric Dunn]

Last hour on radar is showing nw to nnw motion..

[Blown Away]

Last hour on radar is showing nw to nnw motion..

It appears Lane will clear the 06z forecast point ahead of schedule...

[Kingarabian]

Interesting that the core looked this eroded 45 minutes ago, yet its maintaining a strong category 4 structure on IR/vis imagery.

[Kingarabian]

That outflow though!

[Kingarabian]

From the beginning I was worried about how much the models were going to underdo Lane's intensity. Unfortunately they were more disappointing than I thought.

The latest CPHC pressure is 937mb.

GFS:

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting that the core looked this eroded 45 minutes ago, yet its maintaining a strong category 4 structure on IR/vis imagery.

looks like classic moat. Katrina once it started moving north with the increased shear developed one. they can maintain upper cat 3 intensity. which is where Lane likely is right now.