ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Dropsonde in the NW eyewall measured 115 knot winds 1,200 feet above the surface.

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

Could we get a reverse storm surge in Miramar Beach?

Tampa Bay too

Then why are they predicting 6-9 foot surge in Miramar Beach

Kinda like the tsunami effect.
Happened last year in Tampa Bay and the Bahamas.

[tolakram]

COD floater

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[FLpanhandle91]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Awesome product.

[GCANE]

Eye is warming and getting better defined.

[NDG]

[mrbagyo]

From an hour ago.
West sector looks weak - maybe due to dry air

[DestinHurricane]

Tampa Bay too

Then why are they predicting 6-9 foot surge in Miramar Beach

Kinda like the tsunami effect.
Happened last year in Tampa Bay and the Bahamas.

So is the water going to rise 6-9 feet or are they just saying that

[GCANE]

Then why are they predicting 6-9 foot surge in Miramar Beach

Kinda like the tsunami effect.
Happened last year in Tampa Bay and the Bahamas.

So is the water going to rise 6-9 feet or are they just saying that

Will likely recede and then come back in with the surge.

[tolakram]

Then why are they predicting 6-9 foot surge in Miramar Beach

Kinda like the tsunami effect.
Happened last year in Tampa Bay and the Bahamas.

So is the water going to rise 6-9 feet or are they just saying that

You are under mandatory evacuation orders. Get out of there now and stop being foolish. They don't just say stuff, they make forecasts, and that is the best forecast using the best tools available.

[GCANE]

And to top it all off, some Bastardi humor.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1049630128479834112

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1049636295541178370

[GCANE]

[jlauderdal]

Then why are they predicting 6-9 foot surge in Miramar Beach

Kinda like the tsunami effect.
Happened last year in Tampa Bay and the Bahamas.

So is the water going to rise 6-9 feet or are they just saying that

surge is a two-fold issue, even if the water doesnt make it in your house and you are dry because you are on stilts or whatever, the water can cause the stilts, foundation to crumble away then you are in the water and good luck swimming out of a major storm surge..if you are in an evacuation zone its because of surge not because its going to be windy

[chaser1]

Michael is really beginning to take on "that look". Expanding envelope in the face of decreasing shear and eye becoming better and better defined with time. I have a strong feeling that within a few hours we might just see some sharp pressure falls. I'm beginning to think Michael may even make a run at Cat 4 before falling back to a Cat 3 prior to landfall. This may be a beast.

[Hayabusa]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 OCT 2018 Time : 121538 UTC
Lat : 24:39:55 N Lon : 86:04:34 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 940.7mb/112.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -25.3C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 122nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.4 degrees

****************************************************

[xironman]

http://i66.tinypic.com/nn6ypf.png

Anything west brings it into the loop current

[SconnieCane]

Seriously? Final T is 5.9 and raw is 6.7?

[ColdMiser123]

95 KT with the 12z best track