EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,inner core forming now.

Yes, very cold tops will cover the center within an hour or so at this rate.

[Ntxw]

Indeed some colder tops in the core. If it can keep it up then RI not out of the realm

[CyclonicFury]

Going to guess the peak intensity again. Thinking about 130 knots for Fabio. Not really much to impede any rapid strengthening for the next 48 hours or so.

[aperson]

Going to guess the peak intensity again. Thinking about 130 knots for Fabio. Not really much to impede any rapid strengthening for the next 48 hours or so.

Pretty much my thoughts as well. MPI charts show where the deadline is:




I'll take a slightly more conservative 125kt estimate since I'm not seeing axisymmetric towers firing up while the CDO is building. The current dry slot is causing some trouble and models show most of the divergent outflow remaining over that region. I think working that out will take some time off the clock.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS continues bullish, stronger than the 12z so far:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS backs off the sub 920 pressures.

[Chris90]

Going to guess the peak intensity again. Thinking about 130 knots for Fabio. Not really much to impede any rapid strengthening for the next 48 hours or so.

I had been thinking 130kts as well. You were closest with Emilia so I'm in full agreement. If this were a recon storm I would probably go higher, but I don't think dvorak numbers will ever support Cat 5 with this. We shall see.

[Kingarabian]

Going to guess the peak intensity again. Thinking about 130 knots for Fabio. Not really much to impede any rapid strengthening for the next 48 hours or so.

Pretty much my thoughts as well. MPI charts show where the deadline is:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/R4vYnLs.png[img]


I'll take a slightly more conservative 125kt estimate since I'm not seeing axisymmetric towers firing up while the CDO is building. The current dry slot is causing some trouble and models show most of the divergent outflow remaining over that region. I think working that out will take some time off the clock.

On 1 minute GOES imagery, the CDO looks like it has formed nicely over the center. I'm almost certain that the CDO now covers the center. However, if we only use the latest location points from the NHC, the CDO is just at the edge of the CDO:



Likely > 4.0 on Dvorak.

Center fix looks off on ADT.

[Yellow Evan]

Going to guess the peak intensity again. Thinking about 130 knots for Fabio. Not really much to impede any rapid strengthening for the next 48 hours or so.

I entered 115 knots in a private pool. By comparison, I had 55 knots for Emilia.

[Kingarabian]

We'll get a nice round of microwave passes within an hour or so. They'll likely capture a developing or a developed eyewall. Thinking the NHC upgrades to hurricane status in the next advisory depending on the quality of those microwave passes.

[1900hurricane]

Here's a pass from a little over an hour ago. Still much core building to be done, but the dry air appears to be fairly well walled off at least for now.

[Ntxw]

Looking much more angry. Raw T's could shoot up quickly once the core structure is complete.

[Kingarabian]

Here's a pass from a little over an hour ago. Still much core building to be done, but the dry air appears to be fairly well walled off at least for now.

[img]https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/EPAC/07E.FABIO/ssmi/85h/1degreeticks/20180701.2152.f15.x.85h_1deg.07EFABIO.55kts-996mb-123N-1079W.089pc.jpg[img]

What a difference an hour makes:

2200z:


2300z:

[Kingarabian]

1 minute GOES imagery shows how rapidly the CDO is pulling the LLC in, with the very coid tops quickly expanding east and the light cirrus moving west:

[Kingarabian]

Plenty of intense cold tops now

[cycloneye]

TXPZ27 KNES 020025
TCSENP

A. 07E (FABIO)

B. 02/0000Z

C. 12.7N

D. 108.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LOW LEVEL CENTER LIKELY LOCATED 1/3 DEG INTO DG RESULTS
IN DT=3.5. MET=3.0 AND PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[Yellow Evan]

Plenty of intense cold tops now

Let's see if it can sustain it and it gets to the point where the storm won't have to re-cool its cloud tops to get beyond 115 knots or so against limited time.

[cycloneye]

SHIP down to cat 4.

Code: Select all

               * EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  FABIO       EP072018  07/02/18  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    55    61    71    81    93   109   120   119   107    93    77    63    54
V (KT) LAND       55    61    71    81    93   109   120   119   107    93    77    63    54
V (KT) LGEM       55    62    70    79    88   102   106    99    87    68    48    35    25
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     7     5    10    11     7     9     7     7     4     5     8    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     3     4     2     4     2     2     4    14    19    16     7     7
SHEAR DIR         42    44    63    45    40    27    34    36    30     9   232   235   220
SST (C)         28.4  28.8  28.9  28.8  28.6  28.0  26.4  26.9  26.1  22.9  22.6  22.8  21.9
POT. INT. (KT)   149   153   154   153   151   145   129   134   126    92    89    91    82
200 MB T (C)   -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2
200 MB VXT (C)   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.4   0.5   0.7   0.9   0.9   1.0   1.0   0.8   1.0   1.6
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     7     8     7     6     5     4     2     1     0     0
700-500 MB RH     74    73    74    74    74    70    69    65    64    61    58    55    47
MODEL VTX (KT)    28    29    33    36    40    42    46    46    42    38    33    29    26
850 MB ENV VOR    62    63    59    64    71    67    75    59    45    30    18     6    -9
200 MB DIV        89    98   100    99   112    46    34    10    34     8    10    16    36
700-850 TADV       0     0    -2    -2    -3    -1    -2     0     3     7    25    29    29
LAND (KM)        883   923   978  1034  1083  1100  1198  1279  1392  1473  1559  1676  1724
LAT (DEG N)     12.4  12.7  13.0  13.4  13.7  14.6  15.4  16.4  17.6  19.0  20.6  22.1  23.5
LONG(DEG W)    109.0 110.2 111.3 112.4 113.4 115.7 118.2 120.7 123.3 125.8 128.2 130.4 132.7
STM SPEED (KT)    11    12    11    11    11    12    13    13    14    14    13    12    13
HEAT CONTENT      33    39    36    19    15     8     2     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  45            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  574  (MEAN=584)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  13.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           53.9

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   6.   4.   2.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   7.   6.   6.   5.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   3.   7.  11.  14.  17.  21.  19.  15.   8.   2.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  RI POTENTIAL           1.   3.   6.   9.  19.  25.  20.  10.   2.  -5.  -9. -13.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           6.  16.  26.  38.  54.  65.  64.  52.  38.  22.   8.  -1.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   55. LAT, LON:   12.4   109.0

      ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO      07/02/18  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   96.5     40.5  to  149.3        0.51           7.5
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :   10.0    -22.0  to   44.0        0.48           8.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :    8.3     19.6  to    1.4        0.62           8.5
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   28.4      1.8  to  106.7        0.25           2.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   99.6    -33.0  to  156.2        0.70           8.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   13.3     37.8  to    2.1        0.69           6.8
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   55.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.94           9.2
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  118.2    721.6  to  -82.5        0.75          -6.3
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0     62.3  to    0.0        1.00           1.1
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -1.0      2.2  to   -1.9        0.79           1.2
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  26% is   4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  60% is   4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  48% is   5.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  40% is   6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  22% is   5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  37% is   5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  22% is   3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   9% is   1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    25.8%   59.8%   47.5%   40.1%   22.5%   37.1%   22.3%    8.6%
    Logistic:    21.7%   53.6%   36.4%   25.8%    7.9%   30.4%   15.1%    1.4%
    Bayesian:    32.3%   74.5%   75.4%   58.2%   14.1%   57.4%   24.3%    0.0%
   Consensus:    26.6%   62.7%   53.1%   41.4%   14.8%   41.6%   20.6%    3.3%
       DTOPS:    10.0%   92.0%   85.0%   66.0%   63.0%   78.0%   34.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO      07/02/18  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

                          CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


[cycloneye]

This is very interesting about the lightning.

@GigEm12_Steph
#Fabio has a classic lightning signature in the outer rainbands often associated with intensification. ~70% of EastPac TSs with such azimuthally-extensive lightning intensify 24 h later. Official forecast calls for rapid intensification.

 https://twitter.com/GigEm12_Steph/status/1013599212905418753




@GigEm12_Steph
Here's an example of a similar pattern in Rick (2009; East Pacific). Rick intensified from 60 kt to 155 kt in the span of 48 h, and had rather persistent outer rainband lightning throughout that span. [images from my dissertation]

 https://twitter.com/GigEm12_Steph/status/1013605014877691904

[cycloneye]

60kts

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

During the past 18 h, Fabio's satellite appearance has gone from a
curved band, to a CDO, back to a curved band, and now back to a CDO
appearance, probably due to significant dry-air intrusions into
the inner-core region. However, passive microwave data over the past
few hours, especially a 0044Z SSMI/S overpass, indicate that the
low-level center has developed closer to a region of very cold
overshooting cloud tops of -88C to -90C. A closed, 30-35-nmi
diameter low-level eye was evident in the SSMI/S imagery, but no
mid-level eye exists due to dry air having eroded the deep
convection. Having said that, the low-level eye is now embedded well
within the CDO feature. The 0000 UTC satellite intensity estimate
was a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.
However, the advisory is set a little higher at 60 kt based on the
improved satellite appearance since the 0000Z satellite fixes.

The initial motion estimate is 285/11. After a brief westward jog
due to the low-level center reforming closer to the deepest
convection, Fabio appears to have turned back toward the
west-northwest. The cyclone is expected to continue moving
west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a strong
deep-layer ridge. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly
packed around the previous advisory track, with only a 60-nmi
cross-track spread. As a result, the new forecast track is just a
tad south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more
southerly initial position, and lies close to the HCCA and FSSE
consensus track models.

Now that Fabio has developed a well-defined low-level eye, rapid
intensification has become more likely given the favorable low shear
and warm SST environment. However, the main questions are how
soon, how much, and how long will the rapid strengthening be due to
the presence of a pronounced mid-level dry air intrusion and the
lack of a mid-level eye feature. Most of the best-performing model
intensity guidance shows the greatest amount of strengthening
occuring during the next 24 h, and the official forecast follows
suit. After that time, possible cold upwelling beneath the cyclone
becomes a factor since the cyclone will be moving over shallow warm
surface waters of around 26 deg C by 48 h. As a result, the peak
intensity has been capped between 36-48 h. Rapid weakening is
expected afterwards due to SSTs cooling to 22 deg C by 96 h and
southwesterly shear also increasing to 15-20 kt by 120 h. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and FSSE
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 12.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.0N 111.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 13.6N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.5N 115.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 15.5N 118.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 17.7N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 20.7N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 24.0N 132.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart