ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

70%/70%

Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for development when the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

interesting... Next day or two it'll probably be poof.

[Eric Webb]

T numbers are increasing to near 2.5 now, supporting an upgrade to TS Beryl. In any case we are about to find out what this is made of with a new ascat pass occurring now

[Eric Webb]

I stand corrected, ASCAT pass still shows an open wave but a very sharp wave axis.

[NotSparta]

If this isn't already a TC, it's becoming one quickly.

[Alyono]

very close to being fully closed now. Not sure they will upgrade at 11 pm though without overwhelming evidence

[Gustywind]

Very moist pouch. saturated column and good moisture feed. should have a TD tonight and TS tomorrow if it can keep the SAL out.

Hi Aric . What are you best guess for this feature concerning those who lived in the EC like me, but especially those who are in the Leewards islands?
Holidays are just begin this weekend for most of the children of our island. Looks like 95 L is getting better and better since this afternoon so we should keep an eye on as near terms environnement does look favorable. Could we deal with a poor TD or weak TS close to the EC?
Thank for your legenderay input That is very important because of many of us are always Irma and Maria drama even if this feature cannot be compared. But you know that most of the citizens are always hurt. Anyway, bring us your best for 95L.
Regards.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Open Wave but good axis very sharp

[NotSparta]

ASCAT says still open.



Not what you'd think if you look at satellite

[cycloneye]

SAB Up to 2.5.

TXNT26 KNES 050021
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 04/2345Z

C. 10.6N

D. 38.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...0.65 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS
2.0 AND THE PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN BANDING
FEATURES AND PRECISE LOCATION OF LLCC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/2040Z 10.6N 37.4W SSMIS


...HOSLEY

[BlowHard]

Ugh. PR doesn't need this. I'm pretty surprised it strengthened so quickly with all that SAL. I hope that shear does a number on it.

[cycloneye]

Ugh. PR doesn't need this. I'm pretty surprised it strengthened so quickly with all that SAL. I hope that shear does a number on it.

Agree 100%.

[Aric Dunn]

wait for high-resolution ascat. or someone find one. typical for small systems. this almost certainly is close.

[StruThiO]

Ugh. PR doesn't need this. I'm pretty surprised it strengthened so quickly with all that SAL. I hope that shear does a number on it.

this will not make it to PR intact, luckily

[Gustywind]

Ugh. PR doesn't need this. I'm pretty surprised it strengthened so quickly with all that SAL. I hope that shear does a number on it.

Agree 100%.

All the leewardians too. Ramping up' 95L trend continue tonight. Hoping that 95L developpement should halt a bit during the next days

[Aric Dunn]

Very moist pouch. saturated column and good moisture feed. should have a TD tonight and TS tomorrow if it can keep the SAL out.

Hi Aric . What are you best guess for this feature concerning those who lived in the EC like me, but especially those who are in the Leewards islands?

Holidays are just begin this weekend for most of the children of our island. Looks like 95 L is getting better and better since this afternoon so we should keep an eye on as near terms environnement does look favorable. Could we deal with a poor TD or weak TS close to the EC?

Thank for your legenderay input That is very important because of many of us are always Irma and Maria drama even if this feature cannot be compared. But you know that most of
the citizens are always hurt. Anyway, bring us your best for 95L.

Regards.
Gustywind

It is very unlikely it will even survive to the islands. if it does nothing more than a TS at best.

[Gustywind]

It is very unlikely it will even survive to the islands. if it does nothing more than a TS at best.

THANKS Aric we all hope that, rainmaker but no more to eradicate the drought .

[Nimbus]

The persistent convection (which is reminiscent of a CDO but of course could not be) would have to remain quite small to survive a dry air encounter, even the light shear from the south would be drawing dryer air via inflow if it developed the more familiar thermal engine characteristics of a tropical cyclone.

[NotSparta]

Never fear, FNMOC is here!

[Aric Dunn]

few westerly wind barbs in there. the higher resolution is still out there somewhere. lol

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 10.4°N 38.0°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM