ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Dry air slot seems to have made its way into Michael's southeast side.

Yeah the eye has opened up again looking at the IR. Since it's bursting still I suspect it won't be too long before the next hot tower goes up.

Pressure extrap down to 963mbs, so clearly has strengthened in the last 3hrs, that may slow down again until the next large hot tower burst.

[SconnieCane]

This consistent hot tower bursting but inability to fully consolidate the core and bomb out reminds me a bit of Nate last year (minus the super-fast motion and with better model support for intensification than Nate had) or Florence on approach to landfall.

[FLpanhandle91]

Dry air slot seems to have made its way into Michael's southeast side.

Yeah the eye has opened up again looking at the IR. Since it's bursting still I suspect it won't be too long before the next hot tower goes up.

Pressure extrap down to 963mbs, so clearly has strengthened in the last 3hrs, that may slow down again until the next large hot tower burst.

Yeah i believe this is only temporary and will see the next hot towers firing shortly. Very healthy CDO still and shear is forecasted to diminish. This dry air will be evacuated.

[FLpanhandle91]

Latest NE to SW recon pass supports best track intensity of 90 kts.

[plasticup]

This bouy a couple hundred miles East of the center is reporting 22 foot average waves.

[GCANE]

Theta-E ridge to the NW of the CoC is intensifying.
TCs usually explode when they track into one.

[p1nheadlarry]

I'm staying inland away from the tall pines

[plasticup]

Theta-E ridge to the NW of the CoC is intensifying.
TCs usually explode when they track into one.

http://i64.tinypic.com/2820z9z.png

And just as the eye is starting to clearup. All signs pointing towards RI today.

[meriland29]

Just woke up and my internet is being fishy due to some storms overhead. Can anyone give me some updates on his status? I hear he is disorganized?

[KWT]

Inner core looking really lopsided again, not for the first time though...

Dry air has got nicely entrained into the core this time.

[DestinHurricane]

Is it still west of the forecast track?

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KWBC 091347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/13:13:35Z
B. 24.76 deg N 086.09 deg W
C. NA
D. 966 mb
E. 145 deg 10 kt
F. OPEN W-SW
G. C32
H. 71 kt
I. 282 deg 17 nm 13:09:04Z
J. 026 deg 82 kt
K. 283 deg 17 nm 13:08:55Z
L. 77 kt
M. 122 deg 11 nm 13:16:24Z
N. 205 deg 104 kt
O. 123 deg 18 nm 13:18:25Z
P. 18 C / 2466 m
Q. 19 C / 2468 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 0914A MICHAEL OB 35
MAX FL WIND 104 KT 123 / 18 NM 13:18:25Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 281 / 17 NM FROM FL CNTR

[tolakram]

Previous was NOAA, this is AF

000
URNT12 KNHC 091352
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/13:32:00Z
B. 24.78 deg N 086.20 deg W
C. 700 mb 2805 m
D. 967 mb
E. 200 deg 13 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C30
H. 91 kt
I. 035 deg 16 nm 13:27:30Z
J. 113 deg 104 kt
K. 038 deg 19 nm 13:26:30Z
L. 63 kt
M. 227 deg 18 nm 13:37:00Z
N. 319 deg 77 kt
O. 227 deg 14 nm 13:36:00Z
P. 9 C / 3032 m
Q. 16 C / 3039 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF306 1014A MICHAEL OB 12
MAX FL WIND 104 KT 038 / 19 NM 13:26:30Z
;

[chaser1]

Pressure up 3 mb? Noticed the open eye wall.

[tolakram]

Pressure up 3 mb? Noticed the open eye wall.

Down 1 or 2, depending on which measurement they take.

[ColdMiser123]

Dropsonde of 967 mb with a 13 KT wind is suggestive of pressure now down to 965-966 mb. 90 KT is a good call for the next advisory.

[txwatcher91]

Pressure up 3 mb? Noticed the open eye wall.

Pressure is down from 970 to 966 this pass so it's actually dropping again. Dropsonde measured 117kts just above the surface as well in the SE quad.

[chaser1]

Pressure up 3 mb? Noticed the open eye wall.

Pressure is down from 970 to 966 this pass so it's actually dropping again. Dropsonde measured 117kts just above the surface as well in the SE quad.

SE quad?? Oh jeez. I'm assuming they'll sample the N.E. quad next?

[GCANE]

[txwatcher91]

Pressure up 3 mb? Noticed the open eye wall.

Pressure is down from 970 to 966 this pass so it's actually dropping again. Dropsonde measured 117kts just above the surface as well in the SE quad.

SE quad?? Oh jeez. I'm assuming they'll sample the N.E. quad next?

They flew into the NE quad and had FL winds of 105kts or so in that area but so far the strongest winds at the surface appear to be in the SE or E quad. This is solid 105mph right now IMO and this afternoon will be a cat 3 if it can get the eyewall closed off to stop the dry air intrusions.