ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

[im g]https://image.ibb.co/i6ug29/10101101010.gif[/img]

What am I looking at here?

the eye

[seahawkjd]

26 inches of rain in some of the poorest counties in the country. These are counties where schools are still closed from the flooding of Mathew in 2016.

Living in the area you are talking about; I have to ask what counties are you referring to that haven't reopened schools after 2 years?

(moving this over to the Discussion thread because I think we are drifting away from just the models)

Robeson county is the poorest in NC, and one of the poorest in the country. 28% of the population is below the poverty line. After the flooding of Hurricane Mathew, some schools just closed up for good.. It didn't help that Trump rejected >99% of requests for assistance. This is the place that models are showing 30+ inches of rain.

Anyway, this is the kind of broken, impoverished place than absolutely cannot handle the kind of storm we are expecting. The residents cannot evacuate, they don't have the means. They will have to shelter in place even though the infrastructure won't support it.

Those folks on the Outer Banks will presumably all evacuate. Or at least they could. It's the poor folks inland who are really screwed.

Gotcha. Yeah sometimes it just doesn't make sense to bring a school back up to code after a natural disaster. You made it sound like whole counties were devastated still. Also, please leave politics out of the discussion or this thread will degrade quickly lol.

[Highteeld]

Scene Type: Pinhole Eye

[NDG]

Looks like it is near 24.4N

[Aric Dunn]

[supercane4867]

Scene Type: Pinhole Eye

It definitely won't be a pinhole eye once it clears out. Microwave pass indicates a medium sized eyewall

[Blinhart]

Looks like the Eye is Slanted still mostly covered at the top of it, You can tell that the little bit is showing is just part of the eye and not the whole thing. I think once it can get completely open it will begin to really start intensifying . Still wouldn't be shocked if they don't up it to 85/90 MPH. When is ReCon suppose to be in there again?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Careful with using that eye as a peg for the LLC; a lot of overshooting cloudtops are resulting in the eye being partially covered, making it difficult to pinpoint the center.

[otowntiger]

[quote="Aric Dunn"/quote]
Has it started gaining any latitude yet?

[AutoPenalti]

I feel like mods should create a banter thread for off topic stuff regarding a TC.

[dspguy]

Has it started gaining any latitude yet?

Don't think so. And supposedly that's going to be key with where this winds up. The longer it keeps the same latitude, the more south the landfall will be.

[Dean4Storms]

This storm isn't gaining latitude and the ridge is expected to strengthen over the next few days, not sure we won't see some further Southward adjustments to the track.

Just my opinion for now and certainly not official, you should get all official information from the NHC and local Officials!

I pray for all those who come under the path of this storm for safety, property can be repaired and/or rebuilt but don't risk your life or the life of a loved one. GET OUT is the best and smart move if you're in a risky area or close to the Coast!

[wxman57]

Note that those SLOSH plots are based upon a larger hurricane than Florence will be, so they'll be too high. Given the projected path of Florence, and using Cat 3 vs. Cat 4 to take into account the smaller than average size, Florence could produce a surge up to 14 ft in the Wilmington area. Note that in the graphic below I set SLOSH to display inundation vs. surge height, but the flags are on the beach, so that would equal the surge height.

http://wxman57.com/images/SLOSH.JPG

I thought that Florence was already over 400 miles wide and that it is continuing to grow up until landfall? Is it likely to stay the same size?

Not even close to 400 miles. It's relatively small for a hurricane currently. I'm measuring the squalls from north to south at about 160 miles.

[Blinhart]

Note that those SLOSH plots are based upon a larger hurricane than Florence will be, so they'll be too high. Given the projected path of Florence, and using Cat 3 vs. Cat 4 to take into account the smaller than average size, Florence could produce a surge up to 14 ft in the Wilmington area. Note that in the graphic below I set SLOSH to display inundation vs. surge height, but the flags are on the beach, so that would equal the surge height.

http://wxman57.com/images/SLOSH.JPG

I thought that Florence was already over 400 miles wide and that it is continuing to grow up until landfall? Is it likely to stay the same size?

Not even close to 400 miles. It's relatively small for a hurricane currently. I'm measuring the squalls from north to south at about 160 miles.

But she is suppose to expand a whole lot, so 400 miles will not be out of the question.

[Dean4Storms]

Florence could grow some through EWRC's but her moisture envelope is limited as she is trapped between ridges and she only has 3 to 4 days left before a likely landfall.

[Jag95]

It'll be a little easier to see if it's gaining latitude with the eye clearing out. Zooming in on the satellite at weathernerds it looks as if the center is between 24.5 and 24.6. So that might be a slight northward tilt since the last advisory, or maybe it's the eye rotating as it becomes better organized.

[storm4u]

Looks like it's starting to turn just north of due west so should start gaining latitude..

[GTStorm]

I'm not really sure what this means but my guess is that it looks like the door is opening to start picking up some latitude?

[Rail Dawg]

I see less than 4 days before NHC forecasted landfall.

Might be wrong but it's Sunday 7:30pm AST and Florence is forecast to hit late Thursday afternoon/evening.

Monday at 7:30pm AST is 1 day. Tuesday is 2 days. Wednesday is 3 days and Thursday is 4 days.

So 4 days to landfall on the current NHC forecast track.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Storm Surge potential for a Cat 4 Hurricane around Wilmington is up to 28 feet. This could be Katrina level bad depending on strength and track. Everyone needs to take this storm seriously.

The big difference between us (in the Wilmington area) and Katrina is we are above sea level, and have some of the strictest building codes in the country, behind Florida, for coastal construction.