ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FireRat]

This is the most dire looking prediction I've ever seen for the Carolinas, it is quite scary to read what the NHC said at 5 pm, an upper echelon Cat 4 monster heading into NC. Wow, this has my attention, I live in the Triangle area and could get tons of rain and wind from this, while areas to my south and east could get devastated Matthew -style with flooding based on the models and how this thing might stall over NC. We might have to look at storms like Hugo, Fran and Hazel as comparable situations intensity-wise but with Harvey type rains. This storm looks like it's expected to truck here fast too, before slamming the brakes, Thursday landfall? or Friday early. Damn.

[Aric Dunn]

amazing outflow so far
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

[dizzyfish]

Watching this hurricane is painful. I've been through so many in my 59 years and although this one should not affect me directly it will my best friend. I am scared to death for her and her family. She lives on a finger of Pamlico Sound in a 2 story. They have moved as much as they can upstairs and their large stuff (boat, trailer etc) inland to her son's house. I am afraid anywhere in NC is not a good place to be. We have both lived on the coast our entire lives. We know how things change. I told her to get out (she is) and go inland and south. Hope I'm right.

My best to all and those in the path.

[Hurricane Andrew]

On Emergency Response in Large-Scale Events
So, I've seen a lot of back and forth these last few days over whether or not to evacuate, how and if to prepare, where to go, and so on. Honestly, I can't tell you whether or not you should go, or where you should go, but what I can do is give you a certain perspective: my perspective. I've seen a lot of people who have been through hurricanes (I've only been through 3 TCs, and only 1 that was legitimately impacting the area I was in) right about how the worst part of the entire event isn't the storm itself, but the aftermath. We've all seen what happened after Katrina, Rita, Ike, and Harvey. Now, I want to try to explain a thought that I've wanted to put on paper for a while. I will warn you, this will get...rambly. But bear with me if you can.

I am a paid EMT with a commercial EMS department, and for a while, I was a volunteer firefighter (I still hold the cert). I've been in the "911 system" for almost three years. Let me give you a very condensed version of how it works.

You are having an emergency. House fire, heart attack, robbery, whatever. You place a call to 911. Let's say that it's a heart attack. You call 911, and get routed to the appropriate dispatch center. These are usually either county or city centers (mine is county). Said county will take the location of your call and dispatch the most appropriate unit; depending on the locale and type of service, it may be the closest unit, or it may be a contracted ("dedicated") unit. Let's say it's City 1 Ambulance 1, the sole ambulance for that town. C1A1 goes on the call, might transport you, eventually returns to service. Yay.

If a second EMS call were to drop in this city, which in my example has only one ambulance, the dispatch center would utilize a "mutual aid" system. Said mutual aid might be within this dispatch center's area of responsibility (for example, my county dispatches for ~35 fire districts, and 3 commercial and 1 volunteer ambulance company) or it might come from outside, from another city or county. Let's say that the dispatch center is county-wide; it now calls City 2 Ambulance 1. C2A1 handles that second call. No problem.

Mutual aid is quite effective. Utilizing pre-arranged systems, emergency organizations can "backfill" each other. But every system has a breaking point.

A few months ago, a line of severe storms crossed into my county. About 4 or 5 fire districts were nailed, and in the following hours, calls began dropping at a ridiculous rate. Fire companies relocated south (or north, from the next county down). There were other problems than just simple unit relocation, however. Trees and wires were down everywhere, traffic was backed up, power was out; this stuff created "access delays". At one point, County 911 toned out about half the county's fire companies to go on in-quarters standby, simple because they anticipated a need for them to be sent into the hot zone. The mutual aid system worked, but it near reached the point of overload for the county, thanks to a mixture of shear demand and access delay.

That was one line of storms, effecting an area of maybe...twenty square miles?

For a tropical cyclone, everything I just talked about will be turned up to eleven. Physical call demand? That will go nuts; from typical calls such as medical emergencies and fires to more storm-specific issues such as downed trees, wires, flooding, and rescues. Physical access will be impeded by debris, water, and winds; most ambulances and fire trucks have a hard time operating in high winds, after all, and they can't really swim either. (Some southern FDs do run "water rescue" units that can snorkel...it's pretty neat, actually). Mutual aid won't simply be coming from the next city over, or the next county over, but from the next STATE over. From all over the nation, actually; specialized units such as USAR teams are commonplace after a storm. New York's Task Force 2 was deployed to FL about the same time as I went down last year for Irma. During the storm, emergency response is practically nonexistent. Afterward, despite the massive influx of mutual aid and specialized resources, it can take hours to days to access some areas. Many areas of the south operate with far less equipment and manpower than my area, and therefore, a proportionally shallower mutual aid system (through no fault of their own).

There is another issue, and that is the very real danger of physical response infrastructure being damaged or destroyed. During Harvey, Rockport, TX's fire house took heavy damage. Any fire truck, ambulance, or police vehicle that is destroyed is another vehicle that can't aid the response effort, thereby placing even MORE demand on the mutual aid system. It is very much a cascading problem. 911 towers, radio networks, all can be easily destroyed by even a "lower end" hurricane.

In our field, a Mass Casualty Incident has a very simple definition: any incident that exceeds your ability to handle with the resources you have on hand. A car accident can easily be an MCI, as can a structure fire or a shooting.

A major hurricane is an MCI on a regional level.

If you are thinking about riding this storm out, or your family is, think long and hard about the possibility that the emergency services you are accustomed to may not be able to reach you for days to weeks. A very simple issue can become fatal in situations like this. I can list examples, but I think the point has been made.

Do not, DO NOT, take these things lightly.

I hope I didn't ramble for too long...thanks for listening. Prepare and be safe. Please.

H.A.

[jdjaguar]

amazing outflow so far
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

I am seeing the start of wnw movement

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I saw the meteorologist out of Boston mention this is the week of the High Fall Tide. If correct, oh boy...

[jdjaguar]

On Emergency Response in Large-Scale Events

<snip>

H.A.

I read it Hurricane Andrew. Thank you for your thoughts. Maybe you can post a video for GeneratorPower.

[hohnywx]

On Emergency Response in Large-Scale Events

<snip>

I read it Hurricane Andrew. Thank you for your thoughts. Maybe you can post a video for GeneratorPower.

As did I. Thank you. Sorry for those who would rather be rude than read.

[GTStorm]

amazing outflow so far
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

I am seeing the start of wnw movement

agree...saw it on the floater, looks like it will hit the next NHC forecast point (6z) and that would indicate a slight N of west movement. I think tomorrow 18Z it is forecast to be at 25 north, I'm looking at that as a key indicator...if it verifies...that areas south of the current "projected" landfall cone can relax a little bit more.

Please see disclaimer, I'm just an amateur...

[Hurricane Andrew]

As did I. Thank you. Sorry for those who would rather be rude than read.

Hastings-on-Hudson? You're not too far from me, actually. I live and work up in Dutchess County.

I mean...I posted my thoughts. That's all I can do, people are welcome to read them, or ignore them. I'm just trying to do my part, because unlike Irma, I won't be able to go down and do USAR. The consequences of having a full time job.

[Michele B]

This is the most dire looking prediction I've ever seen for the Carolinas, it is quite scary to read what the NHC said at 5 pm, an upper echelon Cat 4 monster heading into NC. Wow, this has my attention, I live in the Triangle area and could get tons of rain and wind from this, while areas to my south and east could get devastated Matthew -style with flooding based on the models and how this thing might stall over NC. We might have to look at storms like Hugo, Fran and Hazel as comparable situations intensity-wise but with Harvey type rains. This storm looks like it's expected to truck here fast too, before slamming the brakes, Thursday landfall? or Friday early. Damn.

Hugo is what keeps coming into my mind.

Listening to the officials from each state on TWC, you can hear it in their voice. They're scared.

This thing is going to EXPLODE in strength once it hits the gulf stream very warm waters....and it'll be worse than they are now saying. I expect winds to reach maybe 125 or more. Lots of wind, lots of rain - that isn't going away, cause,, apparently the steering currents cause the thing to slow to almost a stop once it approaches the land. Yeah, they're scared, and this is going to be very bad.....

And I have a niece who JUST bought a home in Pawley's Island in SC. I expect they are already making plans to evacuate to her mother's house in Asheville.....not they won't get some of it there, too!

[Michele B]

Watching this hurricane is painful. I've been through so many in my 59 years and although this one should not affect me directly it will my best friend. I am scared to death for her and her family. She lives on a finger of Pamlico Sound in a 2 story. They have moved as much as they can upstairs and their large stuff (boat, trailer etc) inland to her son's house. I am afraid anywhere in NC is not a good place to be. We have both lived on the coast our entire lives. We know how things change. I told her to get out (she is) and go inland and south. Hope I'm right.

My best to all and those in the path.

I agree with your assessment. Can you persuade them to evacuate?

[Ubuntwo]

This is the most dire looking prediction I've ever seen for the Carolinas, it is quite scary to read what the NHC said at 5 pm, an upper echelon Cat 4 monster heading into NC. Wow, this has my attention, I live in the Triangle area and could get tons of rain and wind from this, while areas to my south and east could get devastated Matthew -style with flooding based on the models and how this thing might stall over NC. We might have to look at storms like Hugo, Fran and Hazel as comparable situations intensity-wise but with Harvey type rains. This storm looks like it's expected to truck here fast too, before slamming the brakes, Thursday landfall? or Friday early. Damn.

Hugo is what keeps coming into my mind.

Listening to the officials from each state on TWC, you can hear it in their voice. They're scared.

This thing is going to EXPLODE in strength once it hits the gulf stream very warm waters....and it'll be worse than they are now saying. I expect winds to reach maybe 125 or more. Lots of wind, lots of rain - that isn't going away, cause,, apparently the steering currents cause the thing to slow to almost a stop once it approaches the land. Yeah, they're scared, and this is going to be very bad.....

And I have a niece who JUST bought a home in Pawley's Island in SC. I expect they are already making plans to evacuate to her mother's house in Asheville.....not they won't get some of it there, too!

Well, NHC forecasts winds of 150 MPH, so

[Snowman67]

On Emergency Response in Large-Scale Events

<snip>

Great insight and advice. Thanks.

[crownweather]

Too long, did not read. Belongs in another thread or forum. Thx.

I read it Hurricane Andrew. Thank you for your thoughts.

Maybe you can post a video for GeneratorPower.

As did I. Thank you. Sorry for those who would rather be rude than read.

I read it as well. Really good post and NO it did not ramble. As someone who not only forecasts the weather, but has worked in the emergency services side of things (Volunteer FF for 2 years), I know what it feels like when the stuff hits the fan for emergency crews. In a regional MCI, it's all about triage - you go to the ones that have severe injuries and have a chance to live and sadly, you "leave" the ones that have grave injuries or have more superficial injuries.

So, to anyone thinking about staying if a evacuation is ordered for your location - don't stay - LEAVE. You might end up being on that triage list that crews can't get to in time.

[FireRat]

Wow Michele b, I hope your niece is ready for this potential beast! Hopefully it doesn't strike there and also hoping for any better case scenarios to occur, but things look so ugly now. We can't take our eyes off of Florence from today onwards, it will be quite a scary time ahead to say the least.

[hohnywx]

As did I. Thank you. Sorry for those who would rather be rude than read.

Hastings-on-Hudson? You're not too far from me, actually. I live and work up in Dutchess County.

I mean...I posted my thoughts. That's all I can do, people are welcome to read them, or ignore them. I'm just trying to do my part, because unlike Irma, I won't be able to go down and do USAR. The consequences of having a full time job.

Very nice...yes I’m down in Westchester. Glad this storm is staying away from us!

[BYG Jacob]

On Emergency Response in Large-Scale Events
snip

Post this in r/tropicalweather please, or can I post it for you?

[SeaBrz_FL]

As did I. Thank you. Sorry for those who would rather be rude than read.

Hastings-on-Hudson? You're not too far from me, actually. I live and work up in Dutchess County.

I mean...I posted my thoughts. That's all I can do, people are welcome to read them, or ignore them. I'm just trying to do my part, because unlike Irma, I won't be able to go down and do USAR. The consequences of having a full time job.

I read it, too, and it was very helpful. Thank you for your doing your hard job as a First Responder.

And since this IS a discussion forum, I would like to add this for our Carolina folks:

Here is what I would be doing tonight if this storm was heading my way on the coast:

1. Determine how far you need to go inland to stay safe.
2. Reserve a hotel room in that area for no later than Wed (per the wind chart below)
3. Only book at a hotel that will allow you to cancel up until 4PM of your day of arrival without a fee.
4. Insist on an email confirmation with that cancellation policy stated.
5. If you still need to, leave early Wednesday before winds start. If not, celebrate and cancel the room.
   

This may seem like overkill but I've done it for every potential storm and it helped with the early stress. I canceled more rooms than I actually stayed at, but was glad it was there in case. Rooms will start selling out quickly now with a storm this dangerous.

[Michele B]

On Emergency Response in Large-Scale Events
snip

Too long, did not read. Belongs in another thread or forum. Thx.

I read it all, and totally agree with every word.

Lelt me add this, too: My husband was FF/EMT as well, and when you are reckless (don't heed the warnings given to save YOUR LIFE), then you put these folks in harm's way. They WILL do all they can to get to you to try to save you. Sometimes physically, it's just not possible. Other times, when it's not SAFE, they will still try.

In a case like that, you are putting OTHER PEOPLE's lives at stake....someone's husband, wife, mother, father, son.

I believe the whole point of Hurricane Andrew's post is to say: "Make responsible decisions about what you will do in the face of a danger situation/storm like this."

Thanks, Andrew!