ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

When is recons next mission into him

They're in there right now.

[Kazmit]

If there is some good news about Michael,is that it will not do like Harvey or Florence that moved very slowly. This will move fast so the rainfall amounts wont be too high.

Yes, this will mostly be a surge and wind threat.

[La Sirena]

If there is some good news about Michael,is that it will not do like Harvey or Florence that moved very slowly. This will move fast so the rainfall amounts wont be too high.

Very true and you are right, that is good news. One bad thing about fast moving intense storms is that they bring very intense winds very far inland, which is why we are seeing areas like Dothan and even Albany get prepared to possibly see 100+ mph gusts.

I live in Dothan and the wind event is what I’m most worried about. Our house is very solid but we’re surrounded by mature trees. Never having experienced a wind event like this is daunting. But we’re prepped and ready for possible long term power outages, all outdoor items have been secured, etc. Everything comes down to where Michael comes ashore.

[SunnyThoughts]

For anyone interested that has plans of flying in or out of Pensacola.....Airport is closing at midnight tonight until further notice. Amazing how far the effects are going to be felt even if landfall is Panama City

[tolakram]

Closeup visible loop.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=1&x=985&y=1061

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pressures look to be ~964mb per recon. Not rapid intensification, but definitely steadily deepening.

[BlueWater36]

Well, I'm nervous.

I have family that just completed construction and moved into a house on Cape San Blas a few months ago. My family has evacuated, but some of their neighbors stayed behind (in homes on or right near the ocean!!!)

Please stay safe. If authorities tell you to leave, then leave. It's not worth the risk!!!

[eastcoastFL]

[FLpanhandle91]

962.9 extrapolated.

[PTPatrick]

This is proving to be a very interesting storm indeed. One can’t overstate how unaccustomed the Port St Joe to Apachicola region is to something this...not that any region ever is I guess. Quite frankly the storm they all compare everything to is Kate...and it is currently about the same strength of Kate at landfall with all indications being a similar track but a category or 2 higher. They have lots of close calls there in that region and that probably adds to complacency. IF it does end up coming in as bona fide 3 or 4, it’s just not something locals have ever really experienced and they don’t even have very many cat 2 hits to compare with. Eloise in 75 was the last major in the area and it hit slightly west of current landfall projection in Bay county..although this could certainly be a bay county landfall still. You have to go back to the 1800s I believe to find a cat 3 Franklin or Gulf county hit.

[KWT]

Pressure still steadily dropping away with Michael, another convectively burst working around the core of Michael with eye becoming a little more defined again.

This maybe the burst it needs to get to major status.

[Rail Dawg]

Big Truck is loaded for bear and I'm heading to Panama City from Houston.

Planning on a Cat 4 and have all the needed supplies.

Based on how quickly this formed and the many folks that deem it wise to stay in their homes on the coast I expect to see some not-so-pleasant things.

I do appreciate Storm2k this is the best site for informed opinions.

Thanks.

[p1nheadlarry]

This is proving to be a very interesting storm indeed. One can’t understate how unaccustomed the Port St Joe to Apachicola region is to something this...not that any region ever is I guess. Quite frankly the storm they all compare everything to is Kate...and it is currently about the same strength of Kate at landfall with all indications being a similar track but a category or 2 higher. They have lots of close calls there in that region and that probably adds to complacency. IF it does end up coming in as bona fide 3 or 4, it’s just not something locals have ever really experienced and they don’t even have very many cat 2 hits to compare with. Eloise was the last major in the area and it hit slightly west of current landfall projection. You have to go back to the 1800s I believe to find a cat 3 Franklin or Gulf county hit.

Comparing a storm to an event that long ago is always faulty logic. See Camille vs Katrina. Wonder how many old timers stayed because "they survived Camille"

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon still only supports 100mph. Winds will eventually catch up go pressure, but not just yet.

[PavelGaborik10]

Hopefully the winds continue to lag.

[KWT]

Recon still only supports 100mph. Winds will eventually catch up go pressure, but not just yet. NHC MAY bump it to 105mph next advisory.

Winds already are at 110mph which was supported by recon a couple of hours ago...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon still only supports 100mph. Winds will eventually catch up go pressure, but not just yet. NHC MAY bump it to 105mph next advisory.

It was bumped to 110mph at 11am. FL winds and a blend of SFMR support this intensity based on the last pass.

[AdamFirst]

Big Truck is loaded for bear and I'm heading to Panama City from Houston.

Planning on a Cat 4 and have all the needed supplies.

Based on how quickly this formed and the many folks that deem it wise to stay in their homes on the coast I expect to see some not-so-pleasant things.

I do appreciate Storm2k this is the best site for informed opinions.

Thanks.

This'll make up for Florence...and then some.

Stay safe out there, RD

[CaneCurious]

Recon still only supports 100mph. Winds will eventually catch up go pressure, but not just yet. NHC MAY bump it to 105mph next advisory.

The winds were at 110mph at the 10am Advisory. Do you think that they will DECREASE them? I seriously doubt that since we are 24hrs from landfall.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon still only supports 100mph. Winds will eventually catch up go pressure, but not just yet. NHC MAY bump it to 105mph next advisory.

The winds were at 110mph at the 10am Advisory. Do you think that they will DECREASE them? I seriously doubt that since we are 24hrs from landfall.

CORRECTION. Forgot they bumped it to 110.