WDPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MARIA) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM
NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 042333Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS,
HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE KNES/PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS). OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY TUTT CELLS NEAR 22N 156E AND 16N 134E.
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW, SST VALUES RANGE
FROM 29 TO 30C AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY HIGH. TS 10W
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE WITH A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH, THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A 215NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 135 KNOTS AT TAU 72 DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE
AS SST COOLS SLIGHTLY, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES DECREASE AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO A LARGE
SPREAD OF 370NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THERE IS A WEAK BIFURCATION
IN THE MODELS WITH GFS, HWRF AND NAVGEM INDICATING A TRACK TOWARD
30N 130E BY TAU 120 THEN A SHARPER RECURVE TOWARD THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL TRACKERS SHOW A TRACK TOWARD
OKINAWA THEN A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SHANGHAI REGION.
ANALYSIS OF GFS AND NAVGEM FIELDS INDICATES BOTH MODELS ARE
UNREALISTICALLY WEAKENING THE STRONG STR, THEREFORE, THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS THE TRACK TOWARD OKINAWA.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MARIA) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM
NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 042333Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS,
HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE KNES/PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS). OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY TUTT CELLS NEAR 22N 156E AND 16N 134E.
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW, SST VALUES RANGE
FROM 29 TO 30C AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY HIGH. TS 10W
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE WITH A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH, THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A 215NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 135 KNOTS AT TAU 72 DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE
AS SST COOLS SLIGHTLY, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES DECREASE AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO A LARGE
SPREAD OF 370NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THERE IS A WEAK BIFURCATION
IN THE MODELS WITH GFS, HWRF AND NAVGEM INDICATING A TRACK TOWARD
30N 130E BY TAU 120 THEN A SHARPER RECURVE TOWARD THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL TRACKERS SHOW A TRACK TOWARD
OKINAWA THEN A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SHANGHAI REGION.
ANALYSIS OF GFS AND NAVGEM FIELDS INDICATES BOTH MODELS ARE
UNREALISTICALLY WEAKENING THE STRONG STR, THEREFORE, THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS THE TRACK TOWARD OKINAWA.//
NNNN
