WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Not the best IR presentation, but a warm spot/eye feature is coming up and it's more evident on visible imagery:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/YIpjoM3.gif[img]

https://i.imgur.com/MIvBLqU.gif

[img]https://i.imgur.com/d1aFKZX.png[img]
Close to a 3.5.

50 kt would be my best intensity estimate.

Pretty good bet.

And of course the most recent SSMIS, AMSR, and GMI's all miss the system.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF up to 121kts:

[Yellow Evan]

Not enough banding on spiral for a T3.5.

[cycloneye]

And it stays at 3.0.

02/0000 UTC 14.0N 121.8W T3.0/3.0 HECTOR -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

For the first time today, Hector has been maintaining a NW band, which I believe will help establish northern outflow and help it become a hurricane before shear increases again.

[cycloneye]

And it stays at 3.0.

02/0000 UTC 14.0N 121.8W T3.0/3.0 HECTOR -- East Pacific

TXPZ21 KNES 020016
TCSENP

A. 10E (HECTOR)

B. 02/0000Z

C. 14.0N

D. 121.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[cycloneye]

Is 50 kts.

EP, 10, 2018080200, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1217W, 50, 1000, TS

[1900hurricane]

A scenario similar to the 12Z ECMWF solution would probably keep Hector moving primarily westwards for quite a while.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in banding
in association with Hector, and the last several images suggest
that a small CDO may be developing. Recent microwave data,
however, has not shown any significant improvement of the inner
core. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates are 45 kt from SAB
and 55 kt from TAFB, while AMSU and objective UW/CIMSS Dvorak
estimates are in between. As a result, the initial wind speed has
been increased to 50 kt. An increase in northeasterly shear by
tomorrow is expected to temporarily halt the intensification
process. However, the shear is expected to decrease after 48 hours,
which should allow for strengthening later in the period while
Hector remains over warm water. There is still a large spread in
the intensity guidance by day 4, with the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance
showing an intensity of around 65 kt, while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC
model bring Hector to category 4 strength. Given the large
divergence in the intensity guidance at the long range, the NHC
forecast remains close to the consensus aids.

Hector continues to move westward at around 10 kt. There has been
no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. Hector
should move generally westward to the south of a strong subtropical
ridge through Friday. The ridge is forecast to build westward by
the weekend which is expected to impart a west-southwestward motion
through the remainder of the forecast period. The overall track
guidance envelope has not changed since the previous advisory and
the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the envelope. The
latest NHC track prediction is very close to the previous NHC
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 14.0N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.3N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 14.5N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.0N 135.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 13.8N 145.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A scenario similar to the 12Z ECMWF solution would probably keep Hector moving primarily westwards for quite a while.

Ioke pt.2?

[CrazyC83]

Once Hawaii gets in the 7 day range, they will definitely need to start doing Key Messages focused on them to make clear it is far too soon to think about land threats. Especially if models have it coming close.

[Kingarabian]

Once Hawaii gets in the 7 day range, they will definitely need to start doing Key Messages focused on them to make clear it is far too soon to think about land threats. Especially if models have it coming close.

Great point.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This could be the best storm I've ever tracked. I love long-lived powerful storms that do not hit anyone or cause only very minimal impact---it's so fascinating. I expect this to cross three basins. Unlike Genevieve which only exploded as it neared the IDL, this could hold onto its intensity for an extended period of time.

I hope this storm would maintain its strength as a major as long as possible while avoiding land.

[euro6208]

No real big deal. If it goes to Hawaii, it'll just be another weak weakening system like most of them are.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

No real big deal. If it goes to Hawaii, it'll just be another weak weakening system like most of them are.

But it isn't anymore likely to approach Hawaii. It's now more likely to actually enter the West Pacific as a powerful typhoon than slam or even approach Hawaii. The ECMWF is depicting a strong ridge that would steer the storm to the west. Hector is in an area of minimal wind shear, and it would be in a favorable environment for at least 10-15 days more.

The last frame of the ECMWF shows an STR above Hector at 170W as it intensifies further. Inevitably, this would turn west, and it would be impossible for a recurvature to the north to take place. That means Hector would certainly end up being that big ACE, long-lived hurricane/typhoon that may even be in the record books for its longevity.

[Twisted-core]

GFS 00z looks a good incentive to visit and pack a longboard. Surf will be on.


https://imgur.com/TY5SfDZ


Close call atm thinks GFS. Weaker ridge and its into the island.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks 55-60kt.

[Twisted-core]

Abit futher N and it would tap into eddy current.
https://imgur.com/klpQGxF
ec ens menber

[Kingarabian]

CDO is pretty solid right now. Let's see if it's now able to fend off the continuous dry air intrusion and build a decent core:

[wxmann_91]

Excuse me for my ignorance but where are people getting the SSD floater images?

EDIT: nvm, found it.