WPAC: JEBI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Damn where is recon when you need it. Wouldn't be surprise if this was 150-155 knots now.

[Cunxi Huang]

[mrbagyo]

If Emanuel's chart is accurate, Jebi is now near its max potential intensity

[euro6208]

Much more colder convection yet only 10 knots stronger than Norman.

[euro6208]

[galaxy401]

Since when was this a competition? Besides doesn't the average WPAC system usually have colder cloud tops anyway? It usually doesn't make a difference in intensity though.

[1900hurricane]

CDO diameter (which is important if you're doing the Dvorak Technique off of visible imagery) is quite impressive.

[CryHavoc]

CDO diameter (which is important if you're doing the Dvorak Technique off of visible imagery) is quite impressive.

If you look at the Dvorak satellite images and cut them up a bit, you notice the presentation continually growing more impressive. CDG appeared for a second but even as it's vanished the CDO is spinning out and really becoming more consistent in all quadrants. Looks like we will likely see CDG reappearing tonight given the environment Jebi is in.

https://imgur.com/e6FiVym

1430

https://imgur.com/pBKkztV

vs 2230 (present). Pretty substantial difference.

Edit: Links aren't working for whatever reason.

[euro6208]

SATCON up to 145 knots.

[euro6208]

Since when was this a competition? Besides doesn't the average WPAC system usually have colder cloud tops anyway? It usually doesn't make a difference in intensity though.

Just referencing how different they look.

[Twisted-core]

Fell asleep and missed most of this. Jebi sure went to town.

[mrbagyo]

Full CMG ring

[1900hurricane]

The NRL BD IR imagery seems to run a little cold for some reason, but make no mistake, this is a powerful storm.

[mrbagyo]

The NRL BD IR imagery seems to run a little cold for some reason, but make no mistake, this is a powerful storm.

Yeah, kinda weird to see quite a difference in cloud top temp between NRL and SSD even if the image came from the same Geostationary satellite.

Edit: there's quite a difference in cloud top temp but not that big.

[euro6208]

Skyrocketing.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08302115
SATCON: MSLP = 912 hPa MSW = 154 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 148.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 140 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.0 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 925 hPa 135 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG302250
CIMSS AMSU: 897 hPa 164 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08302115
ATMS: 935.1 hPa 125.7 knots Date: 08301620
SSMIS: 935.1 hPa 125.7 knots Date: 08301620
CIRA ATMS: 949 hPa 111 knots Date:

[1900hurricane]

AMSU estimates remain very high. It'll be interesting to see what JTWC does for 00Z. I am a little more suspicious of the 9 km RMW this time around though since the eye is a little larger now.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 25W
Thursday 30aug18 Time: 2115 UTC
Latitude: 17.80 Longitude: 144.59
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 14 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 897 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 164 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -10.9 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 6.15
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 5.79
RMW: 9 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1007
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 08 Day: 30 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[1900hurricane]

The eye temp is actually positive on band 8 (upper level water vapor), which is really impressive. I can't help but wonder how far down the eye that band is viewing.

[1900hurricane]

00Z intensity is up to 145 kt.

25W JEBI 180831 0000 17.9N 144.1E WPAC 145 916

[euro6208]

What a beast. Definitely way stronger than 145 knots.

[mrbagyo]

Breaking news: JMA now has a Violent Storm

TY 1821 (Jebi)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 31 August 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 31 August>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N17°55' (17.9°)
E144°10' (144.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)