ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Not sure if this has been already noted but unlike
most hurricanes, Michael’s western quadrant has most
of convection and not the eastern.

[GCANE]

Starting to entrain that high Theta-E air on its SW quad.

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3 105 kts

AL, 14, 2018100918, , BEST, 0, 255N, 864W, 105, 960, HU

[SconnieCane]

Not sure if this has been already noted but unlike
most hurricanes, Michael’s western quadrant has most
of convection and not the eastern.

If that's the case and the western side is the one that's been sheared and closer to the dry air, that's ominous.

[GCANE]

Easily going exit the Loop Current at Cat 4.

[Hurricane Andrew]

South side of eyewall still looks open on IR, need recon to confirm. Definitely strengthening, however.

[MississippiWx]

BREAKING NEWS: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3 105 kts

AL, 14, 2018100918, , BEST, 0, 255N, 864W, 105, 960, HU

At this point, a Category 4 looks almost certain.

[ozonepete]

Lightning showing up in eyewall now. A good sign of a round of significant intensification beginning.

[KWT]

BREAKING NEWS: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3 105 kts

AL, 14, 2018100918, , BEST, 0, 255N, 864W, 105, 960, HU

Absolutely right call, I suspect the pressure might well be lower once recon punches the core.

Wouldn't be surprised if it's stay as a cat-3 is short lived...sadly. By far the best it's looked throughout its life.

[bella_may]

Looks slightly west of forecast point

[GCANE]

Starting to see higher CAPE values (3000) ahead.
Models were only showing weak CAPE.
Looks like Michael may ramp higher that what they were forecasting.

[supercane4867]

You just can't go against satellite presentation in the case of intensifying hurricane. 105kt is right on spot.

[gfsperpendicular]

Cat 4 seems inevitable. Very scary situation here.

[EquusStorm]

105kt and still 20 hours from land, still deepening and rapidly organizing an eye... yeah this isn't an ideal situation for anyone. Best case at this point it does all its intensifying today and weakens sharply in the morning as most do when approaching the northern Gulf Coast but no guarantees on that.

[eastcoastFL]

Any other wobble watchers see a slight NNNNNE?

[ozonepete]

Any other wobble watchers see a slight NNNNNE?

You will go blind doing that stuff, lol.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Starting to see higher CAPE values (3000) ahead.
Models were only showing weak CAPE.
Looks like Michael may ramp higher that what they were forecasting.

http://i63.tinypic.com/v47xa9.png

COD Goes 16 viewer with meso CAPE overlay is priceless. Noticed that this morning...definitely a rich environment for intensification.

[Ritzcraker]

Any other wobble watchers see a slight NNNNNE?

It wobbled east a very tiny bit and then wobbled back west.

[eastcoastFL]

Any other wobble watchers see a slight NNNNNE?

You will go blind doing that stuff, lol.

lol, I know....But I can't help it!!

[cycloneye]

Check this bouy 42003 that is 200 miles west of Naples,Florida.Look how the pressure is dropping and also the winds and the wave heights.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42003