ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blizzard96x]

Looks like the eye is gone again, probably will remain Cat 2 at 5pm

It is being obscured by tower thunderstorms on the eye wall. Not a sign of weakening.

Thanks for explaining

[txwatcher91]

Huge tower going up on SE eyewall now. Looks like Michael is taking off and the Euro intensity unfortunately may be close to what we see verify.

[Hurrilurker]

The Euro has this peaking near 934mb. It's not impossible but the large amount of what appears to be cirrus in the W and SW quads shows that the system still needs a bit more organization for that feat to occur. Still a lot of time, about 24 hours left unfortunately.

This seems like a pretty unlikely scenario at this point. Pretty much every positive factor would have to come together perfectly, and quickly.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like the large burst of convection has temporarily covered the eye. The southern semicircle continues to struggle. Hopefully, these struggles will continue because it is limiting how fast Michael can strengthen.

Yeah but it's still bursting and it dropped nearly 7mbs whilst having a totally open s/w side earlier today. It still looks miles better than it did.

I'm saying its core issues are limiting strengthening somewhat. Just imagine what it would do if it's able to fix the core.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yep... you can't see the eye that well because of "all the strengthening" blocking the view.

The models have been very bullish on strength, and Micheal has so far been strengthening a bit faster than models have predicted, so they are playing catchup. The next recon flight should be fascinating to watch.

[eastcoastFL]

These are phots taken from a buoy closest to the storm...Looks a bit rough out there

[xironman]

Long-time lurket; first-time poster

Since we are now seeing increased organization and strengthening, I guess it's time to bring up everyone's favorite subject: ERC.

I'm wondering if this rapid intensification increases the changes of an ERC before landfall. And, if so, would the dry air/shear to the southwest be more likely to weaken the storm during an ERC? Michael has not had a fully closed EW for some time, yet seems to be fairly insulated from the dry air. Would an ERC make him more vulnerable to entrainment than he has been up until now - or basically just the same risk?

I'm trying to lay out the positive and negative factors that would support intensification vs. weakening. And, an ERC in the next 12 hours seems like a reasonable "weakening" risk.

Thoughts on this from those more skilled than I am would be appreciated.

Since the true eyewall is still pretty nascent,I doubt an ERC soon.

[MississippiWx]

Just as I said that, thunderstorms started blowing up in the southern eye wall.

[NDG]

So when was the last time Panama City got hit directly by a Major Hurricane?

This archieve of Panama City is from Hurricane City site.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/panamacity.htm

So its being since 1975's Eloise that a major hurricane has come so close to Panama City, that's a long time. 1995's Opal was further away than Eloise, the worst hit areas were to their west.

[EquusStorm]

As a reminder that Gulf storms don't always have to look jaw dropping at high intensity... Opal not far from 130kt/916mb peak. Impressive, but not what one thinks when thinking 916mb.

[txwatcher91]

The Euro has this peaking near 934mb. It's not impossible but the large amount of what appears to be cirrus in the W and SW quads shows that the system still needs a bit more organization for that feat to occur. Still a lot of time, about 24 hours left unfortunately.

This seems like a pretty unlikely scenario at this point. Pretty much every positive factor would have to come together perfectly, and quickly.

Depending on how quickly it moves, it still has 18-24 hours over water which is more than enough for this to bomb out and hit 934mb. It's probably in the 950s right now already and hot towers are firing all around now.

[hurricaneCW]

As a reminder that Gulf storms don't always have to look jaw dropping at high intensity... Opal not far from 130kt/916mb peak. Impressive, but not what one thinks when thinking 916mb.

Correct, because the upper level environment was and will never be ideal, he's always going to look a bit funky. Not unusual for hurricanes that move north of the tropics.

29-30N is pretty far north.

[KWT]

As a reminder that Gulf storms don't always have to look jaw dropping at high intensity... Opal not far from 130kt/916mb peak. Impressive, but not what one thinks when thinking 916mb.

Very interesting indeed, but it's very much the case that it went down almost as fast as it went up...

Bursting canes like this often don't look as good as their winds suggest.

[Gums]

Salute!

A very big one for you Stormcenter.

I was thinking the same thing. No cheering!!! Great to watch the evoultion of a great storm, not just garden variety. But PLZ stop cheering, as some folks about 50 miles east need all the help they can get.

I have plotted these things since a kid back in the 50's, and especially after moving to the Panhandle over 30 years ago. Weather was part of my job for 20+ years, and prepping for a storm became obvious just a week after we moved here hen Elena threatened and then Kate hit where this sucker is predicted.

We are in last hours of prep and moving stuff outside plus Outback in the garage. Old pickup will take its chances in the driveway.

I'll post observations every hour or so as long as our power for the net modem stays up. Cable and power usually reliable, but our battery back up is cell data and that depends upon Verizon's emergency power for the antennas. I drove a hundred miles and right next to many towers on my Katrina rescue mission and no cell coverage!!! Only old landline phones worked for first week or so.

Right now we are already getting a nice, comfortable breeze from the east, but broken clouds keep me from seeing any outflow as I have seen for a dozen or so systems the day before.

Gums sends...

[otowntiger]

If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

I’m hoping a sudden burst of shear weakens this right now but that’s almost no chance of happening, it’s pretty sickening to see such a nasty hurricane make landfall tomorrow evening

personally I still think there is a very decent chance that the storm does weaken significantly just prior to landfall just like almost all of them do in this area. However the “damage” will be done regarding the built up water it will push onshore in the form of surge. Wind could drop quite a bit however keeping this from being the horrific catastrophe we can all envision. We can hope.

[GCANE]

Its coupling into that ULL just north of Hispaniola.
Poleward outflow channel is going to ramp up.
EWRC is about the only inhibiting factor left.
Watching recon if he flies at 700mb and monitoring eye dewpoint.

[Kazmit]

As a reminder that Gulf storms don't always have to look jaw dropping at high intensity... Opal not far from 130kt/916mb peak. Impressive, but not what one thinks when thinking 916mb.

I'm not sure why, but I feel like sometimes October hurricanes in general don't always look amazing. Sandy, Joaquin, and Matthew were all quite large and sloppy looking despite being intense storms.

[Hurrilurker]

The Euro has this peaking near 934mb. It's not impossible but the large amount of what appears to be cirrus in the W and SW quads shows that the system still needs a bit more organization for that feat to occur. Still a lot of time, about 24 hours left unfortunately.

This seems like a pretty unlikely scenario at this point. Pretty much every positive factor would have to come together perfectly, and quickly.

Depending on how quickly it moves, it still has 18-24 hours over water which is more than enough for this to bomb out and hit 934mb. It's probably in the 950s right now already and hot towers are firing all around now.

Yeah, it's certainly possible.

Is it just me, or is there a distinct lack of recon for a major storm just a day or so away from the US coast? In the recon thread I don't even see any missions from today, last one I see was late last night. Really want to know what the pressure is and if we're going to see it start dropping like a rock or if it's more steady-ish.

[caneman]

To the naked eye, watching a 2 hour visible loop it looks like a slight east of north component has occurred.

Anybody else see that? If so, Is that on schedule, ahead or behind schedule? Been away from computer so not caught up on that

[bella_may]

Even a Cat 1 or cat 2 can cause significant damage. Please don’t let your guard down even if it does weaken