ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

NOAA2 Mission #2 into FLORENCE - Finished. It's seems that they couldn't find center with last pass. Strange.

Might be a EWRC

[northjaxpro]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

No surprise as the system makes westward progress

Savannah currently is just south of the extreme southern edge of the cone right now. But, Beaufort, SC, just 40 miles north of Savannah, is now just inside the cone. I apologize for my oversight eariler thinking Savannah was placed in it at 11 a.m. But, this very much could change and Savannah could be inside the cone of uncertainty by the late afternoon package if the west motion is sustained by Florence the remainder of the day.

[supercane4867]

Eye penetration coming up

[Raebie]

The Outer Banks are under evacuation orders. Must be out by Thursday.

[plasticup]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

There is no such thing as a cone of uncertainty. The cone is the historical error within which 2/3 of storms will fall. That means that, for any given storm, there is a 1/3 chance of the storm falling outside of that cone. Just because you are outside of the cone does not mean that the NHC doesn't think you could see a direct hit. In every single forecast they say that a direct hit outside of the cone is very possible.

[meriland29]

Florence is strengthening a lot quicker than anticipated, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds a 110kt+ storm. Florence is taking full advantage of its excellent structure, increasing SSTs, and low wind shear. The satellite presentation reminds me of a WPAC super typhoon. This *could* hit 140 knots.

https://i.imgur.com/IjdvUxr.jpg

If Florence were to attain Cat-5 status, it would represent the northernmost Cat-5 in the Atlantic basin since 1851. As climate change induces warmer SSTs globally, Florence could further confirm the northward shift in intense tropical cyclones over the past several decades. At this point, given the faster-than-expected short-term intensification, I think low-end Cat-5 status is increasingly probable. I think the indications are that the landfall will occur in NC between Oak Island and Morehead City.

The NHC anticipates that she will encounter some sheer once she gets closer to the states, which will weaken her prior to landfall

[Shell Mound]

Florence is strengthening a lot quicker than anticipated, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds a 110kt+ storm. Florence is taking full advantage of its excellent structure, increasing SSTs, and low wind shear. The satellite presentation reminds me of a WPAC super typhoon. This *could* hit 140 knots.

https://i.imgur.com/IjdvUxr.jpg

If Florence were to attain Cat-5 status, it would represent the northernmost Cat-5 in the Atlantic basin since 1851. As climate change induces warmer SSTs globally, Florence could further confirm the northward shift in intense tropical cyclones over the past several decades. At this point, given the faster-than-expected short-term intensification, I think low-end Cat-5 status is increasingly probable. I think the indications are that the landfall will occur in NC between Oak Island and Morehead City.

The NHC anticipates that she will encounter some sheer once she gets closer to the states, which will weaken her prior to landfall

I was referring to the peak intensity, not the intensity at landfall.

[JaxGator]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

No surprise as the system makes westward progress

Savannah is NOT in the latest cone.

He corrected his earlier statement on the previous page, but wouldn't be surprised if Savannah was in the cone later on if the west motion continues. (hopefully not).

[plasticup]

Getting close to a center pass now.

[supercane4867]

~110kt in SW eyewall. Pressure appears to be near 950mb

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR 130mph!

[Extratropical94]

~110kt in SW eyewall. Pressure appears to be near 950mb

And that is the weak side of the storm...

[supercane4867]

Give that SW eyewall tends to be weaker. It's probably 120kt now.

[jdjaguar]

No surprise as the system makes westward progress

Savannah is NOT in the latest cone.

He corrected his earlier statement on the previous page, but wouldn't be surprised if Savannah was in the cone later on if the west motion continues. (hopefully not).

I saw that, problem is he did not edit the post to reflect the correction and people are quoting it in error.

no big deal.

[supercane4867]

I see a special advisory coming at 12

[KWT]

FL winds aren't quite high enough to suggest a cat-4 from that pass BUT as it was the SW side, we may well see something close in other passes. I'd expect maybe 110kts blended.

Still clearly its rapidly strengthening as well, pressure maybe into the 940s already as well given we had 957mbs in 80-90kts winds still.

PS, looks like its back on a 280-285 heading based on the last hour of 1 min satellite.

[meriland29]

Be that as that may, this intensity guidance is pretty impressive (I had previously shown this on the models)

[cycloneye]

I smell a special advisory comming shortly.Recon is finding very strong winds and pressure dropping like a rock.

[Shell Mound]

Give that SW eyewall tends to be weaker. It's probably 120kt now.

Based on satellite and recon data, I actually think the intensity may be close to 125-130 knots now. The eye is rapidly warming and clearing.

[meriland29]

If she doesnt slow her row, she is going to go through quite a few EWRCs