ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Florence beat Mangkhut. (Mangkhut could bomb out later on, not discounting it)

For now..... I am impressed by Florence's structure. I did not expect this to happen in an actually-hyperactive eastern Pacific hurricane season, which is typically inversely proportional to the activity in the Atlantic.

Remember, it only takes one.

[supercane4867]

At this rate she's probably going to be a CAT5 by sunset.

[plasticup]

945.0 mb extrapolated surface pressure in the eye

[Highteeld]

Florence beat Mangkhut.

For now..... I am impressed by Florence's structure. I did not expect this to happen in an actually-hyperactive eastern Pacific hurricane season, which is typically inversely proportional to the activity in the Atlantic.

Yep. That typhoon has been dragging its feet lately.

[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

There is no such thing as a cone of uncertainty. The cone is the historical error within which 2/3 of storms will fall. That means that, for any given storm, there is a 1/3 chance of the storm falling outside of that cone. Just because you are outside of the cone does not mean that the NHC doesn't think you could see a direct hit. In every single forecast they say that a direct hit outside of the cone is very possible.

Some call it the cone of confusion

[MississippiWx]

Mercy. Florence isn’t rapidly intensifying, she’s bombing out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Really? NHC just claimed her at 115 mph ..that would be a 30 mph jump

115mph was just an estimate by the NHC since the plane wasn't out yet to confirm actual intensity.

Given the SW quad supported that, I'd be stunned if the other quadrants don't support high than 100kts. I doubt its as high as 125kts, but wouldn't be that surprised with 115kts (SMFR is judged as too high by the NHC at the moment without support from FL).

Check again, new obs shows 150mph FL winds.

[cycloneye]

Who wants to continue the posting of the data of this important mission?

[northjaxpro]

Wow! Florence is an extremely impressive tropical cyclone now. Really bombing currently.

[KWT]

945mb, FL winds 131 knots, SFMR 114 knots. Florence appears to be a Category 4 hurricane again.

Yep that's about as easy an upgrade as you will get, will need a special advisory for that I think!

Also whats really impressive is the pressure at 945mbs, could quite easily get into the 930s by tonight as well, amazing!

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks way better than it did the first time it hit 115kt a few days ago. Given a central pressure of 945mb at its relatively small size and location, I wouldn't be surprised to see 120kt.

[meriland29]

Okay hold the phone, I am getting dumbfounded here. You mean to tell me, that she already has cat 4 winds found (not assumed) via recon ..ALREADY? Now is it a multiple or a single finding? I know NHC focuses heavily on that. If this is true..and she is already heavily stronger than forecasted for this time...I mean, how is that going to effect her at landfall? Will she peter out sooner? Or will she further enhance?

[KWT]

115mph was just an estimate by the NHC since the plane wasn't out yet to confirm actual intensity.

Given the SW quad supported that, I'd be stunned if the other quadrants don't support high than 100kts. I doubt its as high as 125kts, but wouldn't be that surprised with 115kts (SMFR is judged as too high by the NHC at the moment without support from FL).

Check again, new obs shows 150mph FL winds.

As I said, that supports 115kts pretty much bang on with both 130kts at FL and 114kts SMFR, easy 115kts from the NHC (As I said in that post!)

[jdjaguar]

No surprise as the system makes westward progress

Savannah currently is just south of the extreme southern edge of the cone right now.

I know a lot of people jumped on you about it (me included!). Bunch of geography scholars here!

For me though, I was sipping my coffee and going to check the NHC forecast update at 11am and saw your post first. I nearly spit my coffee out on my keyboard. Savannah was my evac point if the storm tracks where it is currently going. I was like "well, there goes THAT backup plan!" I was thinking "No way it tracked that far south already!"

geography is critical at this stage of the game. do not mean to jump on anyone, just don't want people spitting out coffee..

[Hurricane Andrew]

If she EWRC's as she's leaving the best condition zone, she might not be able to re-intensify on final approach. Could be a bullet dodge...if you consider 120mph over 150mph a bullet dodge.

At any rate...she is very Harvey like right now; small, tight, powerful wind core. Localized. An EWRC (or worse, two) would probably double or triple the width of the major hurricane force winds.

[plasticup]

Classic look of deep convection rolling around the eyewall...once that solidifies at a -60º to -80º ring, we could be looking at RI up to a strong 4, maybe a weak 5.

Good timing that recon is en route. Should be arriving in an hour or so. I think they'll find 125-130 knots by then.

Seems a tad excessive. I think we'll see somewhere around 105-115(max)KNOTS.

Recon just reported 945.0 mb extrapolated surface pressure in the eye, 131 knots in NE eyewall.

[shiny-pebble]

This is phenomenal. We are probably watching a historic hurricane developing right now. If this reaches Category 5, it would have to be one of the most northenmost Cat 5s in the NATL, right?

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[Kazmit]

It was a cat 1 just 12 hours ago.

[Extratropical94]

Center dropsonde 947mb/9kt confirms the extrapolated pressure estimates.