ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[terstorm1012]

Looks like Florence stalls and moves very slowly up around the mid atlantic up to hour 192...If true that would give areas pounded by record rains all year even more rain :\

For July and August I had almost 23 inches of rain at my house--that's almost half the year's average rainfall. My roof is covered with a tarp because roofers are so busy it will be awhile before they can get to me. Really don't want to see this happen!

[Blinhart]

Reminds me a lot of Hugo.

[Evil Jeremy]

I remember Irma was EC, then EC of fl, then at the last minute rode up the west coast. Much of Miami had evacuated as the GFS and other models were consistent on a direct strike which ended up not happening

It didn’t occour as you present it. First off, the difference between florida’s East and west coasts is about 100 miles. That’s negligible 3 days out. The GFS and other models slowly progressed to the west coast in those final days. It’s not as if the models were notably off the mark for Irma, once they honed in on a direct Florida impact.

[gatorcane]

Pretty decent south shift by the FV3 GFS heading west. It is south of the GFS:

[AutoPenalti]

South shift and a bit faster than 12Z

[hurricaneCW]

Very unlikely Flo gets as far south as FL, the south trend may just mean it will take longer to make it to the US thus favoring LF a bit further east on a sharper NW curve.

Still think Carolinas up to the lower Delmarva have the best chance at LF.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is that a trough on the FV3-GFS? There appears to be one moving faster across the mid-west this run at hour 90. Could it help steer it away from the SE?

[Bocadude85]

Very unlikely Flo gets as far south as FL, the south trend may just mean it will take longer to make it to the US thus favoring LF a bit further east on a sharper NW curve.

Still think Carolinas up to the lower Delmarva have the best chance at LF.

I do not believe Florence will strike Florida, however we aren’t talking about a trough that is going to pick her up. The ridge is what will be steering Florence and a slower and further south Florence does not mean a farther north landfall.

[chaser1]

Very unlikely Flo gets as far south as FL, the south trend may just mean it will take longer to make it to the US thus favoring LF a bit further east on a sharper NW curve.

Still think Carolinas up to the lower Delmarva have the best chance at LF.

In the grand scheme of things I'd generally agree. One's perspective might change though if we were really looking at a storm sitting at about 25N and 65W with a hefty east/west ridge to it's north and west. Not to say that'll happen however if we took the GFS 18Z run out to 90 hr.'s, that would make it the 6th straight run after run forecast in which the track had been adjusted south. Might happen, might not. However at that particular distance (rather then from 53W), a Florida landfall just seems a fair degree more plausible. That's when the devil will be in the details for sure.

Edit: Meant to refer above, to the "FV3-GFS" 18 Z run (not the GFS) which has now had 6 consecutive runs showing Florence a bit further south on each of them.

[gatorcane]

The FV3 GFS is further south than the Euro and CMC through 90 hours.

[hurricaneCW]

Very unlikely Flo gets as far south as FL, the south trend may just mean it will take longer to make it to the US thus favoring LF a bit further east on a sharper NW curve.

Still think Carolinas up to the lower Delmarva have the best chance at LF.

I do not believe Florence will strike Florida, however we aren’t talking about a trough that is going to pick her up. The ridge is what will be steering Florence and a slower and further south Florence does not mean a farther north landfall.

If she takes too long to get to the US, the ridge may erode a bit and allow for a greater weakness and push northeast. It's also possible that the strength of the ridge forecast doesn't end up as strong or it gets displaced further N & E.

A lot can change in a week, and I did say unlikely, not that it won't or can't happen.

[chaser1]

The FV3 GFS is further south than the Euro and CMC through 90 hours.

Is it me or does it seem that the FV3-GFS has been hung up at 90 hr.'s for a bit long now?? Doesn't seem to be loading the following 6 hr. forecasts

[chaser1]

18Z HWRF at 60 hr.'s about 1/2 degree further southwest of prior run (and stronger)

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is SW of the 12z at 87 hours by almost a full degree.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I’m sorry, but i don’t think we’re completely done with these south shifts because of one GFS run. We are still 6 to 7 days out and the track is subject to change.

[Aric Dunn]

I’m sorry, but i don’t think we’re completely done with these south shifts because of one GFS run. We are still 6 to 7 days out and the track is subject to change.

nope not as long as FLO continues this wsw motion.

[Ken711]

Does the GFS model tend to underestimate or overestimate the ridging versus the Euro? As Florence gets further west before turning northwest, I wonder if that will allow more time for the blocking high to weaken and steer Florence father north as the GFS model shows.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Does the GFS model tend to underestimate or overestimate the ridging versus the Euro? As Florence gets further west before turning northwest, I wonder if that will allow more time for the blocking high to weaken and steer Florence father north as the GFS model shows.

Often underestimates a lot. Especially for this storm. I honestly feel like it’s still doing it.

[p1nheadlarry]

Does the GFS model tend to underestimate or overestimate the ridging versus the Euro? As Florence gets further west before turning northwest, I wonder if that will allow more time for the blocking high to weaken and steer Florence father north as the GFS model shows.

Underestimates ridge, Euro overestimates. And NHC is between both solutions

[NDG]

I don't like how the models keep trending south and west, my fear is that in the short term if Florence keeps tracking W to WSW it gives time for the ridge to the north to build further west into the mid Atlantic, with no trough coming early next week to push the ridge rebuilding north of Florence back to the east Florence can track straight west making landfall from anywhere between N FL & N Carolina with a bulls eye over S Carolina if not GA. IMO.
N FL needs to keep an eye if models keeps trending SW.