ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Very dire situation on our hands here. Only seeing minimal media coverage with 24 hours left for landfall. Didn't a combo of an ERC just prior to landfall substantially weaken Patricia 2015? Hopefully we see something similar.

[MGC]

Eye has contracted to 18 miles according to the VDM. Central pressure dropping..... Not good.....MGC

[Kazmit]

I just realized that this morning this was an 80 knot storm. That's a 25 knot increase in 12 hours.

[BYG Jacob]

That convective burst on the northern eyewall is crazy

[dhweather]

:( oh oh.. Microwave image indeed shows now a closed eyewall.

This is a extremely troubling development. ÉURO had 934 mb at landfall tomorrow and darn it, it may just deepen to that level.

I think it might get there within a few hours.

with a closed eyewall, low shear and warm waters, wow, this could get ugly fast.

[KWT]

With that depth of convection there likely won't be much difference between flight winds and surface winds.

[drezee]

Alright Storm2K, Michael just made a Fist. Huge tower wrapping fully around the eye wall. This is a precursor to deepening. It happened an hour before recon. Hold on to your seats to Cat 4....this is very bad

[EquusStorm]

That deep convective explosion on the east side has already wrapped super far around. Eye obscured but the fact that it's obscured by explosive very deep convection isn't exactly good news

[supercane4867]

If Michael can manage to fully clear out his eye again. Even 130kt in not out of reach

[jdjaguar]

:( oh oh.. Microwave image indeed shows now a closed eyewall.

This is a extremely troubling development. ÉURO had 934 mb at landfall tomorrow and darn it, it may just deepen to that level.

I think it might get there within a few hours.

Wow! Coming from a pro-met that is sobering.

[DestinHurricane]

Will surge be bad in the bay in Miramar Beach/Destin

[NDG]

As long as deep convection keeps refiring near the eyewall I doubt there will be any EWRs any time soon. IMO.

[Sanibel]

I'm going to go check out that surge at Blind Pass...I can't believe it because the hurricane has been a big nothing here not worth a post...

I've been holding back from saying anything about fists because there were some false alarm fists in the last few storms...

[SunnyThoughts]

Local channel here in Pensacola area just announced that officials have ordered evacuation of Navarre beach...in Santa Rosa county just to the east of Pensacola.

[wx98]

Drop by recon supports every bit of that 110 kt intensity, very interested in the NE eyewall now.

[supercane4867]

PCT showing off the chart values in N eyewall

[bella_may]

Will surge be bad in the bay in Miramar Beach/Destin

I would say yes, considering the causeway in mobile is already flooding

[Florabamaman]

Local channel here in Pensacola area just announced that officials have ordered evacuation of Navarre beach...in Santa Rosa county just to the east of Pensacola.

Is that a mandatory? I heard a few hours ago but it was only voluntary...

[CrazyC83]

:( oh oh.. Microwave image indeed shows now a closed eyewall.

This is a extremely troubling development. ÉURO had 934 mb at landfall tomorrow and darn it, it may just deepen to that level.

I think it might get there within a few hours.

Wow! Coming from a pro-met that is sobering.

Yeah, I do think it will peak overnight, and probably weaken some before landfall on approach, but it will still be very dangerous.

[michelinj]

If Michael can manage to fully clear out his eye again. Even 130kt in not out of reach

https://i.imgur.com/dCZZVZl.jpg

When we start posting dvorak images that’s when it gets really serious!

I’m so grateful I can appreciate these storms from the safety of the UK. Good luck to anyone in the path of Michael