ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

I was afraid of this last night when I posted that it could become a strong Cat 3 by tonight. I pray an ERC takes place tomorrow to weaken it, but I'm not holding my breath. This sucker is dangerous and if you live in the immediate path, as far inland as between Albany to Valdosta, GA, I would be making some serious preps or bugging out.

[SunnyThoughts]

Local channel here in Pensacola area just announced that officials have ordered evacuation of Navarre beach...in Santa Rosa county just to the east of Pensacola.

Is that a mandatory? I heard a few hours ago but it was only voluntary...

They say they don't issue "mandatory" or "voluntary" just that when they order folks to evacuate to please take it seriously.

[PSUHiker31]

The satellite appearance is rapidly improving. Those -80C cloud tops are wrapping around the eye tightly with the eye shrinking. Not a good sign.

[bella_may]

It needs to start moving NNE soon if it’s gonna take the NHC track. It’s still headed NNNNW

[KWT]

I think it might get there within a few hours.

Wow! Coming from a pro-met that is sobering.

Yeah, I do think it will peak overnight, and probably weaken some before landfall on approach, but it will still be very dangerous.

I've been going for 120kts peak, 110 landfall, but I'm starting to think I may have even a little late undershot the peak at the moment. It's looking solid at the moment.

[johngaltfla]

KWT, it depends on the timing. I wold not be shocked to see a 125-130kt storm when we wake up in the morning. It's the GOM and we all know how much storms love our bath water.

[MidnightRain]

It needs to start moving NNE soon if it’s gonna take the NHC track. It’s still headed NNNNW

He's heading due north, and probably has another 8 hours or so before the NNE movement should begin. Still right on track.

[northjaxpro]

I am at a loss of words how quickly Michael is organizing. This is the absolute nightmare scenaro you will ever see unfolding in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. I have been doing this for many years and what this cyclone is doing right now is nothing short of incredulous.

Prayers for everyone in the path of this monster and hope people who were advised to evacuate did just that!!!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Cannot emphasize enough how serious of a situation this is turning into. Michael is quickly becoming comparable in magnitude to Harvey last year (sans the slowdown and 60" of rain, fortunately). This will be a serious and significant wind and storm surge threat, even greater than Dennis and Ivan.

[NotoSans]

Surprised to see NHC only showing a 110-knot peak. IMO they should rely less on the intensity guidance but forecast near-term peak intensity based on recent trends.

[meriland29]

It is only 10mph from a cat 4 already and is only now completely full circle. I hope this doesnt get up to a high cat 4 or cat 5.....

[johngaltfla]

I am at a loss of words how quickly Michael is organizing. This is the absolute nightmare scenaro you will ever see unfolding in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. I have been doing this for many years and what this cyclone is doing right now is nothing short of incredulous.

Prayers for everyone in the path of this monster and hope people who were advised to evacuate did just that!!!

I'm hoping people in Southwest Georgia start taking this seriously. Mike is not going to lost that much strength that rapidly if it is moving NE at 12mph+ as a Cat 4.

[Sciencerocks]

The satellite appearance is rapidly improving. Those -80C cloud tops are wrapping around the eye tightly with the eye shrinking. Not a good sign.

Starting to think 125-130 knots is quite possible and the storm looks unlikely to go through an ewrc during the next 24 hours as it is doing it either.

If weakening does happen it will be very close.

[facemane]

Will surge be bad in the bay in Miramar Beach/Destin

https://www.cityofdestin.com/DocumentCe ... nes?bidId=

This will give you a general idea of what to expect

[johngaltfla]

Surprised to see NHC only showing a 110-knot peak. IMO they should rely less on the intensity guidance but forecast near-term peak intensity based on recent trends.

The NHC does a good job about warning on intensity forecasts being highly variable. Thus why they put such emphasis to local authorities on warnings.

[ColdMiser123]

Wouldn't surprise me if Michael intensified all the way up until landfall. 18z SHIPS shows shear <15 KT the rest of the time it has over water. Shear actually decreases until landfall near 18z tomorrow.

* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MICHAEL AL142018 10/09/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 105 109 108 108 108 102 96 86 78 65 47 26 DIS
V (KT) LAND 105 109 108 108 108 57 36 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 105 111 111 109 106 57 36 29 35 36 32 27 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 9 9 14 13 25 37 41 60 84 77
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 2 0 1 3 6 11 15 11 4 6
SHEAR DIR 283 274 286 282 241 241 221 225 209 244 251 264 263
SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.8 27.8 26.8 23.6 18.8 11.8 15.9 12.5
POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 146 150 148 150 137 127 102 84 74 76 70
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 128 131 130 133 122 115 96 81 72 72 68
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -52.4 -53.0 -51.5 -49.4
200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 10 6 4 1 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 65 65 57 47 36 30 29 40 44 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 30 31 29 27 22 26 25 21 16 14
850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 33 38 50 26 33 19 36 121 83 90 133
200 MB DIV 21 29 32 47 49 36 94 75 112 83 50 33 33
700-850 TADV 17 19 21 9 3 2 -5 -3 -35 48 50 149 164
LAND (KM) 404 357 239 130 47 -195 -158 -74 276 321 240 858 1332
LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.7 29.7 31.8 34.0 36.2 38.8 42.0 45.9 48.8 51.0
LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.3 86.3 86.1 85.9 83.8 80.8 76.7 70.5 61.6 50.2 41.3 34.8
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 12 15 19 24 33 42 39 28 23
HEAT CONTENT 41 35 27 26 26 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0

[Buck]

The rate at which Michael is strengthening puts him near Wilma and Maria in my mind.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Down to 955.1 now

[HurricaneBelle]

I'm hoping people in Southwest Georgia start taking this seriously. Mike is not going to lost that much strength that rapidly if it is moving NE at 12mph+ as a Cat 4.

Yeah this could be similar to how Hugo brought hurricane conditions all the way inland to Charlotte.

[dizzyfish]

http://www.fox13news.com/news/local-new ... ea-streets

Coffee Pot Bayou in St. Pete already has street flooding. It may get ugly there tomorrow. It's crazy!