ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1901 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:19 pm

Blizzard96x wrote:Cranky thinks the NHC statement of a 120mph hurricane is not accurate.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 1324503040


Time: 22:06:30Z
Coordinates: 26.483N 86.250W
Acft. Static Air Press: 694.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,862 m (9,390 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 969.9 mb (28.64 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 143° at 106 kts (From the SE at 122.0 mph)
Air Temp: 9.0°C (48.2°F)
Dew Pt: 4.0°C (39.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 108 kts (124.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 104 kts (119.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 58 mm/hr (2.28 in/hr)
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1902 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:19 pm

dizzyfish wrote:Before it gets crazy busy in here.....

I have all of my Florida peeps in my prayers especially those in the northern counties. I am truly scared to death for you. Take care and if you haven't left yet GET OUT NOW!

For those in the surrounding southern counties - please don't drive through flooded streets! We may have a bit more of those than they are expecting.

Bless you all and my lovely home state!


Thanks very much dizzyfish!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1903 Postby sponger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:20 pm

NDG wrote:
SeaBrz_FL wrote:Live Storms Media has been doing live short feeds all day in the Panhandle. A new one shows the traffic nightmare in Crestview of vehicles trying to head north on Hwy 85.

https://bit.ly/2E9XOTQ


Is always mind boggling why people wait until the middle of the day to evacuate, if they would had left before sunrise they would had not encountered any traffic at all. This was the case all the time when I lived in Nola. If I lived there and I had not evacuated I would had planned to leave around 3 AM tonight and avoided all the traffic.


Learned that for Floyd. 2am update is my go time.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1904 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:20 pm

Big pressure drop this pass, extrap of 951mbs, about 6bs in 105 mins!!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1905 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:21 pm

Michael is on the verge of wrapping that intense -75C or colder convection entirely around the eye, and the entire circular eyewall is starting to become apparent on visible.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1906 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:21 pm

Wow, pressure continues to drop, the Euro may not have been so crazy.

20700 2628N 08616W 6979 02801 9649 +117 +051 148086 106 105 038 00
220730 2627N 08618W 6963 02798 9613 +129 +049 139065 078 101 020 00
220800 2626N 08619W 6972 02772 9596 +131 +052 138053 059 091 006 00
220830 2625N 08620W 6967 02766 9582 +131 +056 140042 048 063 004 00
220900 2623N 08622W 6967 02754 9560 +142 +061 144033 038 040 004 00
220930 2622N 08623W 6980 02733 9548 +149 +065 149024 032 028 001 00
221000 2621N 08625W 6965 02749 9539 +153 +070 169012 017 022 002 03
221030 2621N 08627W 6966 02747 9525 +164 +074 163005 009 017 002 03
221100 2620N 08629W 6970 02741 9518 +169 +083 348008 011 020 001 00
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1907 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:21 pm

At this rate it's going to reach 115kt CAT4 by 11PM advisory
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1908 Postby sponger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:22 pm

Look at the expanding minus 80 cloud tops! Bombing as we speak!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1909 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:23 pm

Blizzard96x wrote:Cranky thinks the NHC statement of a 120mph hurricane is not accurate.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 1324503040


Well recon completely proved him wrong, data easily supports the 120mph intensity and could be closer to 125.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1910 Postby Gums » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:23 pm

Salute!

Hurrilurker said:
I don't recall ever seeing so much indifference to a potentially-Cat-4 storm this close to the US coast. Obviously if you're in the target area it's different, but normally it would be 24/7 freak-out coverage at this point (and days before) and I've seen very little of that


It has happened before and right here in the Panhandle.....

It was this time of day 23 years ago on Oct 3rd 1995, while sitting in the barber's parking lot listwning to the radio. Our company let go very early and I eas gonna prep and then go back at zero-dark thirty to help our sftwe dude cover up all the computers and such incase we had leaks. If the roof went, that would be a different story anyway.

Opal was due to hit the next day and forecast to reach Cat 3 and impact within 10 miles of us or so. accuracy then wasn't nearly as good as now, but doggone it they came close, and it went ashore about 25 miles west of us. So we got the strongest verything. Plenty of videos out there to see.

The storm was not getting attention from the national media, and even the next night after it wrecked havoc and night after that - no news!!! Ranked in top 5 of the serious storms to hit the U.S.

WHY?????? Because that afternoon, 3 Oct 1995 they read the O.J. verdict!!!!!

So I'll bet if Michael had been about to strike a week ago Friday or Saturday it would have been the same story. The Kavanaugh debacle, heh?

We're finally getting some coverage, so maybe folks will realize there's news besides politics abd celebreties.

Gums sends...
Last edited by Gums on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1911 Postby Ken711 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:24 pm

NDG wrote:Wow, pressure continues to drop, the Euro may not have been so crazy.

20700 2628N 08616W 6979 02801 9649 +117 +051 148086 106 105 038 00
220730 2627N 08618W 6963 02798 9613 +129 +049 139065 078 101 020 00
220800 2626N 08619W 6972 02772 9596 +131 +052 138053 059 091 006 00
220830 2625N 08620W 6967 02766 9582 +131 +056 140042 048 063 004 00
220900 2623N 08622W 6967 02754 9560 +142 +061 144033 038 040 004 00
220930 2622N 08623W 6980 02733 9548 +149 +065 149024 032 028 001 00
221000 2621N 08625W 6965 02749 9539 +153 +070 169012 017 022 002 03
221030 2621N 08627W 6966 02747 9525 +164 +074 163005 009 017 002 03
221100 2620N 08629W 6970 02741 9518 +169 +083 348008 011 020 001 00


Isn't it normally the GFS that forecasts intensity higher than the Euro, interesting that the Euro may be the model that the verifies with intensity.
Last edited by Ken711 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1912 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:24 pm

Also recon finding winds that are supportive of 105kts but when pressure races down like that I think the winds are only going to go up from there.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1913 Postby Kazmit » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:25 pm

Blizzard96x wrote:Cranky thinks the NHC statement of a 120mph hurricane is not accurate.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 1324503040

You can argue with satellite estimates, but not with recon.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1914 Postby Ken711 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:26 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1915 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:29 pm

-90C overshooting tops popping up in the eyewall. Getting a lots of CDG on dvorak

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1916 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:32 pm

supercane4867 wrote:-90C overshooting tops popping up in the eyewall. Getting a lots of CDG on dvorak

https://i.imgur.com/cXmYmt4.jpg


I'm getting Opal flashbacks right before my eyes here. If that wraps around, we'll get a cat 5 no problem. But that may be a stretch. Cat 4 should be easy.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1917 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:34 pm

Hi all,

so twitter is a great thing, but everyone can make a tweet. Please do not post tweets here that are obviously out of line and not backed up by data, it's as bad as you making the post yourself. No harm no foul yet, just a friendly note that we should avoid it. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1918 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:34 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1919 Postby reds37win » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:37 pm

The last few visible satellite frames kinda look like someone lost control of a fire hose. No good ever comes of that.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1920 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:39 pm

Ken711 wrote:
NDG wrote:Wow, pressure continues to drop, the Euro may not have been so crazy.

20700 2628N 08616W 6979 02801 9649 +117 +051 148086 106 105 038 00
220730 2627N 08618W 6963 02798 9613 +129 +049 139065 078 101 020 00
220800 2626N 08619W 6972 02772 9596 +131 +052 138053 059 091 006 00
220830 2625N 08620W 6967 02766 9582 +131 +056 140042 048 063 004 00
220900 2623N 08622W 6967 02754 9560 +142 +061 144033 038 040 004 00
220930 2622N 08623W 6980 02733 9548 +149 +065 149024 032 028 001 00
221000 2621N 08625W 6965 02749 9539 +153 +070 169012 017 022 002 03
221030 2621N 08627W 6966 02747 9525 +164 +074 163005 009 017 002 03
221100 2620N 08629W 6970 02741 9518 +169 +083 348008 011 020 001 00


Isn't it normally the GFS that forecasts intensity higher than the Euro, interesting that the Euro may be the model that the verifies with intensity.


The GFS has also forecasted its pressure to go down into the 930smb range a couple of times.
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