CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[MississippiWx]

Fairly pronounced eastward movement mixing in now. Rain is going to be devastating.

[MississippiWx]

should we expect thunderstorms on maui or just the rain?

Lightning and thunder are not uncommon in tropical systems, so you could see a few strikes and hear a few rumbles. Rain will be the biggest hazard.

[DioBrando]

how likely is it lane gets retired?

[BobHarlem]

how likely is it lane gets retired?

Based on what's already going on along the Big Island, pretty likely.

[PandaCitrus]

Basically, this is a Harvey situation. Wind effects should be tropical storm like and minimal to moderate. The big problem is the rain. Up to 50 inches in spots.

[tolakram]

should we expect thunderstorms on maui or just the rain?

I honestly don't know, but suspect more rain than anything else.

[tolakram]

Looks like the LLC might just be emerging on the south or SW side of the cirrus shield.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-158&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=vis&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[srainhoutx]

My wife knows a couple who is staying at at a hotel on the Waikiki Strip right now. If there is a direct landfall on Oahu or if they even get in the NE quadrant, how do you think the Waikiki hotels will fare?

I was staying at the Hilton Hawaiian Village Resort on Waikiki Beach 3 years ago to the day when what was left of Kilo was dying. East facing rooms flooded due to rain water seeping around sliding glass doors to Balconies. Most of the shops and restaurants at ground level had 3 to 4 feet of water flow through them as heavy rainfall along the South facing Mountains flooded into Honolulu and Waikiki Beach.

[DioBrando]

how likely is it lane gets retired?

Based on what's already going on along the Big Island, pretty likely.

I would give it an almost certain chance tbh. is lane a boy or a girl hurricane officially? I might send in suggestions

Also to those in Hawaii: KEEP SAFE!

[NotoSans]

This may be down to category 1 now, if not lower. Dvorak estimates tend to overestimate these storms.

Nevertheless, remember that rain is going to be the major threat.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the LLC might just be emerging on the south or SW side of the cirrus shield.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-158&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=vis&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

Its is hard to say. but the convective pattern on radar seems like they are still somewhat stacked. definitely tilted a good deal but still moving together. need more visible images.

[Iune]

how likely is it lane gets retired?

Based on what's already going on along the Big Island, pretty likely.

I would give it an almost certain chance tbh. is lane a boy or a girl hurricane officially? I might send in suggestions

Also to those in Hawaii: KEEP SAFE!

For situations like this, you can always look at the previous and next names; Kristy and Miriam are both female names so Lane would be a male name. (It's tricks like this that answered my questions about some of the more unfamiliar names that were on the old West Pacific naming lists. )

[Aric Dunn]

I have been watching it pretty closely ... I have the center here
and the mid level is just a little to the NE it causing the odd convective pattern on radar.

[DioBrando]

Based on what's already going on along the Big Island, pretty likely.

I would give it an almost certain chance tbh. is lane a boy or a girl hurricane officially? I might send in suggestions

Also to those in Hawaii: KEEP SAFE!

For situations like this, you can always look at the previous and next names; Kristy and Miriam are both female names so Lane would be a male name. (It's tricks like this that answered my questions about some of the more unfamiliar names that were on the old West Pacific naming lists. )

oh tah for the info mate! well, I always used to think lane was a girl hurricane until you told me Sad to see a lovely name like Lane go as this is certainly his last time as a hurricane but I just can't help but keep the Hawaiians in my thoughts and prayers

[Aric Dunn]

There is definitely a lot of inflow problems. lets hope it continues to weaken.

[cycloneye]

Upwelling going on.

@GregPostel
Is #Lane upwelling cooler waters? Now barely moving, is this process -along with strong vertical shear- contributing to its demise? #Hawaii #hawaiiweather

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1033070668672380928

[supercane4867]

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Looks like Lane is making a comeback from early this morning. He just refuses to die.

Harvey flashbacks be raging...

(Also: probably nobody is in the mood for this but I cannot resist the temptation to state we do not want
-Harvey 2: Electric Boogaloo
-Hurricane Harvey’s Alola Form
-The HighWater 2: The Slowening)

[boulderrr]

Surfers catching the waves off Waikiki:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=832Sk1P ... e=youtu.be

[Aric Dunn]

As the convection is dying. the center is starting to become exposed on the south side. looks the mid level shear is finally winning over. good news at least for lower wind damage to the old houses and buildings.