ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[supercane4867]

Latest microwave

[jlauderdal]

has wobbled back to the west again.. this is going to be fun lol..

stair stepping but 280 seems about right

[supercane4867]

18z Best track at 120kt

AL, 06, 2018091018, , BEST, 0, 252N, 606W, 120, 942, HU

[eastcoastFL]

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BreakingNNow/status/1039222022663008256

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1039223670143692800

[seahawkjd]

has wobbled back to the west again.. this is going to be fun lol..

From those of us potentially in the path of this thing.... no, it really isn't fun nor a laughing matter in this situation.

seahawk, have you evacuated?

I will be heading to Greenville. I have to work tomorrow to get storm prep done at work and then heading out.

[Vdogg]

The latest recon fixes seem to be showing a general WNW movement.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1039221148280676352

[Blinhart]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1039223670143692800

In the past didn't we have a special folder for things like this?

[SunnyThoughts]

Watching TWC where the gov of South Carolina is giving a presser. Over 1 million people expected to evacuate the coastline of SC. Reversing big hwys all one way leading away from the coast at noon tomorrow.

[tolakram]

[jdjaguar]

From those of us potentially in the path of this thing.... no, it really isn't fun nor a laughing matter in this situation.

seahawk, have you evacuated?

I will be heading to Greenville. I have to work tomorrow to get storm prep done at work and then heading out.

gotcha

roads are gonna be jammed...bring xtra gas cans if you have any (and have a truck bed to stow em in)

Governor SC will be ordering evacs tomorrow starting at noon.

[plasticup]

Watching TWC where the gov of South Carolina is giving a presser. Over 1 million people expected to evacuate the coastline of SC. Reversing big hwys all one way leading away from the coast at noon tomorrow.

Still going to be a complete cluster. It always is. Leaving today would be anyone's best bet.

[ronjon]

From Dr Jeff Masters - NC shoreline vulnerable to high storm surges.

Landfalling Category 4 hurricanes are rare in the mainland U.S., with just 24 such landfalls since 1851—an average of one every seven years. (Category 5 landfalls are rarer still, with just three on record). All but three of these 27 landfalls by Cat4s and Cat5s have occurred south of South Carolina’s latitude; thus, Florence will be in very select company if it manages to make landfall at Category 4 strength in North or South Carolina.

If Florence hits the coast of North or South Carolina as a Category 3 or stronger hurricane, we should expect to see record storm surge heights, with a 15 – 20’ surge very possible, according to two experts I communicated with today. Dr. Robert Young, Professor of Coastal Geology at Western Carolina University, says that “the track of Hurricane Florence, combined with its expected size and strength at landfall and the unique coastal geomorphology of the region, is likely to result in a record storm surge along portions of the warning area.” And according to storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, “we could definitely see a 20+ foot storm surge/storm tide in the Carolinas. Even if Florence weakens a bit in the time right before landfall, the surge heights correlate better with the pre-landfall winds than the winds at landfall.”

It’s a good thing that landfalls by such strong hurricanes are rare along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast, since this coastline is extremely vulnerable to high storm surges. Two of these three historical Carolina Category 4 hurricanes generated a storm tide of 18 - 20 feet: Hugo of 1989 and Hazel of 1954. The other storm--Gracie of 1959--did not (it hit at low tide, significantly reducing the coastal flooding). The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal lunar tide, measured in height above sea level. The National Hurricane Center uses the terminology “height above ground level” when discussing the storm tide, meaning the height the surge plus tide gets above the normal high tide mark.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Expect-Storm-Surge-15-20-Feet-Landfalling-Category-4-Storm-Carolinas

[tolakram]

[PTPatrick]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1039223670143692800

Wow the whole coast? I understand they have to evacuate based on the cone for a storm like this so no judgement ...but south of Charleston seems to be a bit less at risk here? Wonder if they will stage it all... I suppose the nice thing about SC is that MB, Charleston and HH don’t all share the same routes inland. But this is a scenario where evacuation southward down the coast could make more sense. Hence putting Charleston on the roads that North Carolinians and Myrtle beach folks could be using seems an odd choice.

[Raebie]

From Dr Jeff Masters - NC shoreline vulnerable to high storm surges.

Landfalling Category 4 hurricanes are rare in the mainland U.S., with just 24 such landfalls since 1851—an average of one every seven years. (Category 5 landfalls are rarer still, with just three on record). All but three of these 27 landfalls by Cat4s and Cat5s have occurred south of South Carolina’s latitude; thus, Florence will be in very select company if it manages to make landfall at Category 4 strength in North or South Carolina.

If Florence hits the coast of North or South Carolina as a Category 3 or stronger hurricane, we should expect to see record storm surge heights, with a 15 – 20’ surge very possible, according to two experts I communicated with today. Dr. Robert Young, Professor of Coastal Geology at Western Carolina University, says that “the track of Hurricane Florence, combined with its expected size and strength at landfall and the unique coastal geomorphology of the region, is likely to result in a record storm surge along portions of the warning area.” And according to storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, “we could definitely see a 20+ foot storm surge/storm tide in the Carolinas. Even if Florence weakens a bit in the time right before landfall, the surge heights correlate better with the pre-landfall winds than the winds at landfall.”

It’s a good thing that landfalls by such strong hurricanes are rare along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast, since this coastline is extremely vulnerable to high storm surges. Two of these three historical Carolina Category 4 hurricanes generated a storm tide of 18 - 20 feet: Hugo of 1989 and Hazel of 1954. The other storm--Gracie of 1959--did not (it hit at low tide, significantly reducing the coastal flooding). The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal lunar tide, measured in height above sea level. The National Hurricane Center uses the terminology “height above ground level” when discussing the storm tide, meaning the height the surge plus tide gets above the normal high tide mark.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Expect-Storm-Surge-15-20-Feet-Landfalling-Category-4-Storm-Carolinas

If this thing does come into Wilmington around 2 AM Friday morning, that's right at high tide.

[JarrodB]

Watches by the 5pm advisory?....if not I am almost certain they will be up 11pm.