WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

NAVGEM



EURO



GFS wants to bring a typhoon to Palau. Peak of 919 mb.

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 220126
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM ChST Thu Mar 22 2018

PMZ161-171-172-230200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
1100 AM ChST Thu Mar 22 2018

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK...

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 3N149E...ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL IN EASTERN YAP STATE...ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PULUWAT IN WESTERN CHUUK STATE AND 360 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WENO CHUUK. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY AND THEN IT COULD DEVELOP FURTHER AND START MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE DISTURBANCE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CHUUK STATE AND SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF YAP STATE. SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF AT SATAWAL AND NEARBY
ISLANDS OF FAR EASTERN YAP STATE AND FOR PULUWAT AND NEARBY ISLANDS
OF CHUUK STATE FOR NOW. BY THIS WEEKEND...INCLEMENT WEATHER COULD
AFFECT SATAWAL...WOLEAI AND FARAULEP AND NEARBY ISLANDS OF EASTERN
YAP STATE.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE DISTURBANCE. GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SEAS
OF 7 TO 10 FEET. WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BECOME WORSE NEAR THE
DISTURBANCE BY FRIDAY.

ALWAYS WEAR A LIFE JACKET WHEN TRAVELING BY BOAT. BE AWARE OF
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND STAY IN PORT IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IN SOUTHWEST CHUUK STATE AND FAR EASTERN YAP
STATE IS NOT RECOMMENDED WHILE THE THREAT OF THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS
NEARBY.

RESIDENTS ON THESE ATOLLS AND ISLANDS NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY AND HEED INSTRUCTIONS AND UPDATES FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AND WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

$$

Simpson

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.7N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.6N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 341
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 210446Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING POCKETS OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT AND WEAK BANDING
PRESENT. A 212350Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A STILL ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER BUT 15 KNOT WINDS
DOMINATING THE PERIPHERY AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN
AGREEMENT, INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH CONSOLIDATION LIKELY IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

looks decent imo

[euro6208]

JMA expecting a TD in 48 hours. So silent and insufficient info..



LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 04N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[StruThiO]

taking its time..

[euro6208]

TCFA reissued.

WTPN21 PGTW 230530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 148.0E TO 6.1N 143.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.3N 147.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 147.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 222330Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN AND A SMALL
AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 221151Z ASCAT
PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A STILL SOMEWHAT BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN, BUT 20-25 KNOT WINDS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL
INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240530Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 230640

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 23/0600Z

C. 2.98N

D. 146.24E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.0 DT. MET/PT 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[doomhaMwx]

Could become the first typhoon of this season.

[euro6208]

Next name on the list...Jelawat.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 230943 COR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (S OF GUAM)

B. 23/0900Z

C. 3.42N

D. 146.37E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[euro6208]

NAVGEM and EURO much stronger on future Jelawat while the usually GFS tending weaker. HWRF is the most weakest.

[euro6208]

Little change is seen the next few days, with only partly cloudy
skies and isolated showers. The models differ on what, if any,
effects the developing disturbance 96W might have on the Marianas.
The GFS keeps the region very dry through 10 days, while the ECMWF
brings some significant rainfall Wed-Fri of next week in a rain
band as 96W spins several hundred miles out to the west. The ECMWF
version seems less plausible at this point, so will stay with mostly
cloudy and isolated showers starting on Tuesday.

The disturbance southwest of Chuuk near 4N148E is now the subject
of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by JTWC. The Special
Weather Statement was updated for Chuuk, Koror, and Yap. Weather
and marine conditions will deteriorate for Yap State and Palau this
weekend. Models differ a little in the exact movement and intensity
of the circulation, but it is expected to move toward the west-
northwest and gradually develop during the next few days, and is
expected to approach Koror and Yap on Sunday. Some watches and
warnings may be needed for parts of Yap State and The Republic of
Palau as early as Saturday.

[StruThiO]

So as I understand it this one if it intensifies could have big implications for ENSO yeah? Will be watching this one for sure..

[NotSparta]

So as I understand it this one if it intensifies could have big implications for ENSO yeah? Will be watching this one for sure..

It doesn't have huge implications, but it does outline how there is a WWB there

[euro6208]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Yeah GFS ots as a TY then morphs into a large pacific extratropical cyclone.

[euro6208]

Invest Area 96W remains the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation
Alert issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. ASCAT Analysis
showed a low-level circulation near 5N146E, but the larger scale
circulation is spread out quite a bit. Heavier convection is on the
north side where surging trade winds are arriving, and showers are
also developing on the south side where there is a flow of westerly
winds near the Equator. GFS and ECMWF differ a little in movement
and development of 96W but generally indicate it will move toward
the west-northwest and slowly develop. If and when JTWC issues a
warning for 96W, it will be close enough to the warning points of
Yap State and Palau that we may go direct to warning products
versus watch products.

[JoshwaDone]

something needs to happen.. maybe tomorrow we're gonna have a depression near Palau