ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

Looking better with every new frames

[HeeBGBz]

I’m getting a wee bit nervous here too I’m Pensacola! This thing is WAY TOO close for comfort!

It’s almost hard to believe it’s going to turn and have minimal impacts on us. Working my nerves that’s for sure.

How fast can a powerful Cat 4 turn? Our forecast for tomorrow 50% precip, breezy. MAKE IT SO.

[Clearcloudz]

[floridasun78]

i looking at hurr it look mean eye this dont look good for them theit need alot help after hurr hit alot beach home and hotel will be gone

[Hurricane Andrew]

Buckle in everybody, NOAA2 is doing a SW-NE pass. If this thing has strengthened to a 4, we're about to know about it.

Personally, I'd guess this pass finds something like 105-110kt SFMRs; a little stronger, maybe, but not a C4. Not yet.

[MacTavish]

Eye is visible on long range radar out of north florida now.

[Raebie]

000
URNT12 KWBC 092328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/23:07:13Z
B. 26.46 deg N 086.47 deg W
C. NA
D. 955 mb
E. 195 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN SW - SE
G. C20
H. 100 kt
I. 089 deg 13 nm 23:03:50Z
J. 183 deg 124 kt
K. 089 deg 17 nm 23:02:51Z
L. 86 kt
M. 269 deg 12 nm 23:10:20Z
N. 350 deg 96 kt
O. 269 deg 15 nm 23:11:14Z
P. 14 C / 2448 m
Q. 21 C / 2456 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 124 KT 089 / 17 NM 23:02:51Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 269 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

Why is the VDM saying open?....

No way that eye is open.

[TexasF6]

Any advice on wind speeds in Columbus Georgia? School is cancelled. I have friends in the city with small kids and they are worried.

Tropical storm winds possible/probable... but they should be safe indoors. Temporary power loss possible.

Thank you Buck!!!

[NDG]

Incredible how it keeps refiring convection like crazy.

[jdjaguar]

000
URNT12 KWBC 092328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/23:07:13Z
B. 26.46 deg N 086.47 deg W
C. NA
D. 955 mb
E. 195 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN SW - SE
G. C20
H. 100 kt
I. 089 deg 13 nm 23:03:50Z
J. 183 deg 124 kt
K. 089 deg 17 nm 23:02:51Z
L. 86 kt
M. 269 deg 12 nm 23:10:20Z
N. 350 deg 96 kt
O. 269 deg 15 nm 23:11:14Z
P. 14 C / 2448 m
Q. 21 C / 2456 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 124 KT 089 / 17 NM 23:02:51Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 269 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

Why is the VDM saying open?....

No way that eye is open.

Any pro-mets care to comment re. Open eye last pass?

[sbcc]

]

Why is the VDM saying open?....

No way that eye is open.[/quote]

This storm is blowing up so fast. Is it possible that it was open when they did those passes?

[O Town]

000
URNT12 KWBC 092328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/23:07:13Z
B. 26.46 deg N 086.47 deg W
C. NA
D. 955 mb
E. 195 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN SW - SE
G. C20
H. 100 kt
I. 089 deg 13 nm 23:03:50Z
J. 183 deg 124 kt
K. 089 deg 17 nm 23:02:51Z
L. 86 kt
M. 269 deg 12 nm 23:10:20Z
N. 350 deg 96 kt
O. 269 deg 15 nm 23:11:14Z
P. 14 C / 2448 m
Q. 21 C / 2456 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 124 KT 089 / 17 NM 23:02:51Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 269 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

Why is the VDM saying open?....

No way that eye is open.

Yeah, agree. Is it because they missed the center? Has to be.

[meriland29]

There is no way the eye is open sw-se...or at all. I mean look at it...

[jlauderdal]

Looks like they held 105 kt at 0z. Kinda surprised, figured they’d go for 110 kt. Pressure at 953 mb.

I reckon we might see some special advisories tonight.

There is a hurricane warning up..not sure what else you expect?

[Hammy]

That VDM is an hour old.

[Hayabusa]

Raw 7.0
2018OCT09 233038 6.1 936.4 117.4 6.1 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -46.36 -77.38 EYE -99 IR 47.2 26.62 86.48 ARCHER GOES16 33.6

[mrbagyo]

There is no way the eye is open sw-se...or at all. I mean look at it...

Open then, maybe it's closed now. It's developing quite rapidly now

[supercane4867]

You can see the white warm pixels starts to show in the eye on 1-min sector. Incredible

[dukeblue219]

I'm going to side with the professional mets who are riding into this beast in the waning daylight. If they're saying it's open a little then it probably is (was) and nobody has a better view. IR is great but we can't see through the upper clouds to really see what the eye looks like down low.

[northjaxpro]

No way the eyewall is open.. That has to be an error. Maybe I am wrong. Uh?