ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Buck]

Looks like they held 105 kt at 0z. Kinda surprised, figured they’d go for 110 kt. Pressure at 953 mb.

I reckon we might see some special advisories tonight.

There is a hurricane warning up..not sure what else you expect?

I’m saying special intermediate advisories adjusting max winds/min pressure in between the 3 hr intervals.

[NotoSans]

The NOAA recon seems to be very stringent on whether the eyewall is closed. I recalled that the NOAA recon reported an open eyewall for Patricia when she intensified into a category four. We all know what happened afterwards.

[johngaltfla]

Whether he makes Cat 5 or not (and I think he will get close if not achieve it), the impact won’t be much different. This is a monster and if you are still in the path, get out. It’s not too late. Head W or NW (or I guess it makes sense for some to head down the peninsula).

Head east to JAX/Daytona

West is probably gridlock

If you can go SE towards Melbourne, Orlando, Lakeland, Arcadia, even Sarasota, that's good too. It's almost too far north for us but we will get some serious rain and gusty winds. Anywhere near I-75 between Gainesville, FL and Macon, GA is NOT a good idea.

[Abdullah]

Could this get to T8.0?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Pretty clearly open to the SW on IR...I doubt that lasts, to be honest.

[Abdullah]

Pretty clearly open to the SW on IR...I doubt that lasts, to be honest.

Yeah, now instead of having Full Cold Medium Gray, it has 20% White on Dvorak... So much weaker!

[RL3AO]

Could this get to T8.0?

No way a T8.0 happens in the northern GOM.

[kevin mathis]

http://forums.texags.com/images/forum/icon40.gif RAW T# up to 7.0 http://forums.texags.com/images/forum/icon40.gif

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f6f34295f2d651cb7d5be4129e55f5a1180850a8e019b76615896388101cc55e.jpg

Ominous sight to behold....I feel for those up state....I don't even like the fact my Tampa Bay area in the same close up satellite pic with this beast.

[1900hurricane]

New passes should be arriving soon, but microwave imagery from a few hours ago did show an open eyewall.

[jlf7]

Any advice on wind speeds in Columbus Georgia? School is cancelled. I have friends in the city with small kids and they are worried.

On weather.gov you can type in whatever location in the upper left and then select the hurricane local statement which will go into detail on wind, rain, or other related threats for your area.

[chaser1]

Intermediate advisory says Michael getting much better organized. Expect a strong uptick in winds over the coming hours.

You've almost gotta laugh at that statement?! I mean think about this for a sec; how many times have you ever heard NHC actually make a statement regarding a "Cat 3 Hurricane getting much better organized". That's like saying "the New England Patriots are a threat to be a pretty good team this year" (sorry, I'm a Dolphan too but it was the best analogy I could come up with LOL)

[meriland29]

Heres a microwave in full time

[Abdullah]

The plane is probably in the eye at this very moment.

[Aric Dunn]

Hello,

here is the link where you can see my live streams of Michael starting tomorrow.

https://www.facebook.com/Hurricane-Mich ... 6822654964

[weathermimmi]

Is the storm so strong that it could not make such a dramatic NE turn until closer to coast ? I continue to see a tad west of north ?

[MacTavish]

Is it just me or is the storm slowing down significantly? Could be about to begin the more easterly turn that is expected?

[Nimbus]

I’m getting a wee bit nervous here too I’m Pensacola! This thing is WAY TOO close for comfort!

It’s almost hard to believe it’s going to turn and have minimal impacts on us. Working my nerves that’s for sure.

How fast can a powerful Cat 4 turn? Our forecast for tomorrow 50% precip, breezy. MAKE IT SO.

Recon finding tropical storm force winds at the longitude of Pensacola and with the NNE turn that will likely not get any worse. There are tornadoes and downbursts in the feeder bands that may give 60 MPH gusts. Of course if my wishcast of a EWRC comes true the windfield spreads out and becomes much less concentrated.

[Frank2]

Shear and perhaps a bit of dry air is helping to keep it at bay for now. The NHC discussion did mention the eye cleared out for a short time (about one hour from what I did see) before it became cloud-covered again, so hoping it will not strengthen any further.

We have to remember intensity forecasting is still the forecaster's weak spot - both up and down in intensity...

Frank

[storm_in_a_teacup]

If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

Michael will likely become at Cat 4 whether people cheer it to do so or not. Nature cares nothing for our feelings or sensibilities. I mostly see a large contingent of people who are fascinated by weather and storms specifically. Intense storms are as beautiful as they are destructive. Do not confuse people marveling at a storms beauty, with them cheering on the destruction that storm will bring to their fellow man.

Thank you for pointing this out. As someone who is both terrified and fascinated by hurricanes I don't like being hit by them, but I also don't really care if people get excited about the hurricane that's about to hit me. It's not like their "cheering" will change the outcome.

Let's not do our own version of the whole r/tropicalweather "is it bad to be a hurricane enthusiast" fight. That got really ugly, and that's why I came back to Storm2K.

[Okay...you can go back to your discussion...I'm really out of sync ]

[Extratropical94]

Latest pass:
948.5 mb extrapolated
130kt FL
110kt SFMR