ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Blown Away]

Below is what last night's Euro Ensembles showed, so the majority of them are concentrating in a smaller area over South Carolina. The members that showed a weaker Florence in the short term are the ones that showed a track towards FL & GA, the ones that showed a much stronger Florence in the short term are the one tracking towards NC.

17 members into FL & GA
18 members into S.C.
8 members into N.C. & outer banks.
7 members OTS or meander offshore.

Wow, the Florida door is still very much open. I still trust my Climatology with all the N Florida/GA tracks, either Central Florida S or Charleston N with the final outcome.

How would you define "weaker" in the short term?

[SFLcane]

Of note UKMET and it’s ensembles shifted West and south a good bit when this model is stuck on something it’s wise not to ignore.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/

[WilmingtonSandbar]

FV3 GFS is an odd one again, Hits near Wilmington, then loops out over the outerbanks then back and hits Wilmington a second time and then rides the coast up and out.

Almost like Diana in 1984

Having lived through Diana, that was my very first thought.

[ronjon]

With all the talk of model predictions 6 days out, average NHC forecast error 5 days out is 200 miles - and that's the forecast error which is an ensemble mean of the best individual track models. So individual model runs 6 days out could be off 300 miles of more. Look for trends in reliable models and their ensemble means this far out. Over the last couple of days that trend has been southward.

[Steve]

Of note UKMET and it’s ensembles shifted West and south a good bit when this model is stuck on something it’s wise not to ignore.

It goes both ways though. Sometimes it’s keyed in and sometimes it’s an outlier. You never know with UK. What blew my mind was the double destruction of the NC coast with the FV3 GFS. That’s an atrocious run for coastal NC if for some reason it was to verify. Luckily it’s nowhere as strong as the OG GFS coming back that second time. But it’s got a few days of Cat 1/Cat 2 there over the course of the track.

[Steve]

It could be right and they all start trending OTS. GFS has been right a few times recently to score a win.

The GFS literally plowed Flo into a ridge for several runs. It keeps on depicting a powerful ridge break apart; I believe even the southernmost run isn't the furthest west, and it still underestimates the ridge.

They can't score wins in storms like this. Seriously, plowing this through a ridge (and then eventually turning back)? I'm no met and I don't mean to be offensive but that sounds ridiculous. Pure entertainment---trash run from 06Z GFS.

No it did not. Show me the map where it plowed a storm into a ridge. It's silly to think any model can't function as designed. It may break down a ridge too fast but it's not going to plow a storm into a ridge. Some people here are misreading the maps.

Indeed it did. You’d have to search for me and physics or me and balloon but it did it for several runs in a row early in this thread causing me to rail on it, deservedly imho.

[b0tzy29]

HWRF



Central Florida through the Carolina's should be spending the weekend getting everything in line.

[invest man]

With all the talk of model predictions 6 days out, average NHC forecast error 5 days out is 200 miles - and that's the forecast error which is an ensemble mean of the best individual track models. So individual model runs 6 days out could be off 300 miles of more. Look for trends in reliable models and their ensemble means this far out. Over the last couple of days that trend has been southward.

I certainly agree but doesn't those ensembles still show about 2/3 of those models landfalling between charleston and hatteras and the more southerly models, even U.K. don't they show a much weaker storm? If so how does a weaker storm say a high cat 1- mid cat differ in track from a low to mid cat 4 track?

[BobHarlem]

HWRF



Central Florida through the Carolina's should be spending the weekend getting everything in line.

If Florence winds up looking like that, absolute gridlock on all the evac routes.

[Bocadude85]

12z early model guidance has shifted southwest through 120hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

HWRF

http://i67.tinypic.com/2j45b9g.png

Central Florida through the Carolina's should be spending the weekend getting everything in line.

If Florence winds up looking like that, absolute gridlock on all the evac routes.

Dare I say Annular?

[JPmia]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

Will say this.. when is the last time we have seen such a large, broad ridge draped across the eastern CONUS like this..

[jlauderdal]

HWRF



Central Florida through the Carolina's should be spending the weekend getting everything in line.

If Florence winds up looking like that, absolute gridlock on all the evac routes.

good subsidence for sofla..sunny and hot

[Bocadude85]

HWRF



Central Florida through the Carolina's should be spending the weekend getting everything in line.

Of note, this latest run of the HWRF shifted 2.5 degrees west from the 0z run. The 6z HMON is about 2 degrees west of its 0z run as well.

[MGC]

I'd have a cow if Florence looked like the above....anyway the models tomorrow should have a much better grasp when the Gulfstream data is used in Sunday's model runs. Until then it is mostly speculation on how strong the ridge will be. Hold on to your hats....MGC

[OuterBanker]

Really! The FV3-GFS 06z run would pretty much destroy the Outer Banks. Looks like impossible though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90806&fh=0

Euro though is more reliable. Far less effects here if Euro is true. Plus it has Flo headed inland and not up coast. Also a plus for us.

No offense to South Carolina but Euro looks like Hugo 2.

[NC_Cyclone]

FLorence is north of all but 3 UK members. some of them off by a degree.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/


zoom in to FLorence. Press UK ens (Mogreps). Florence 5am position is well north



In addition the U.K. keeps Florence a TS until hour 72. That is likely MUCH too weak and likely the cause of it being so far south.

[tarheelprogrammer]

FLorence is north of all but 3 UK members. some of them off by a degree.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/


zoom in to FLorence. Press UK ens (Mogreps). Florence 5am position is well north

UKMET also had a west bias with Gordon where it wanted to send him to Texas. I am hoping the GFS is picking up on a weakness that will allow this system to escape direct landfall in the US.

[pgoss11]

Really! The FV3-GFS 06z run would pretty much destroy the Outer Banks. Looks like impossible though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90806&fh=0

Euro though is more reliable. Far less effects here if Euro is true. Plus it has Flo headed inland and not up coast. Also a plus for us.

No offense to South Carolina but Euro looks like Hugo 2.

It does look like a Hugo redux but Hugo hit a little further up the coast from Charleston. I think Georgetown SC was ground zero. If Florence comes in a little south of Charleston it would be much worse here than Hugo. The City of Charleston has gone to Opcon 4 to get things prepared in case we have to deal with the storm directly here. We still have 5 days and hopefully the track will change for us but then again that would be bad news for someone else and I certainly dont wish that on anyone.Be safe out there my friends.

[NC_Cyclone]

FLorence is north of all but 3 UK members. some of them off by a degree.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/


zoom in to FLorence. Press UK ens (Mogreps). Florence 5am position is well north

UKMET also had a west bias with Gordon where it wanted to send him to Texas. I am hoping the GFS is picking up on a weakness that will allow this system to escape direct landfall in the US.

Yeah I think U.K. is too weak. A stronger storm sooner will drive poleward.