ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

The shifts mean the models are closing in on a landfall over the Carolinas. Whether this makes landfall or stays offshore, it is almost certain that several population areas over the SE US and Mid-Atlantic would have impacts to some extent. I wouldn't let my guard down. The NC governor wouldn't issue a state of emergency for a storm curving far away OTS.

Hence, the NHC mentioned the phrase "small eastward shifts" and NOT "significant eastward trends/shifts."

It looks a lot better for folks from Wilmington south to MB. OBX and Jacksonville are direct hits though.

I would be feeling a cautious sense of optimism in wilmington right now since the storm is still a ways out and the track has ticked ever so slightly northward. Hugo provided a great illustration that one need not be too far south and west of the center of a northwestward moving hurricane to have a dramatically less impactful event. as there are multiple forecast cycles before landfall if the track starts ticking ever so slightly eastward things could look better for that region if that trend remains intact. Of course that comes at the expense of those up the coast. unfortunately someone is likey to pay rent with this one.

I think we'll end up at the OBX between Nags Head and Hatteras as we closer to landfall over the next few runs as they move in small adjustments north. Even the current NHC track is to the west of the consensus TVCN.

[dukeblue219]

One thing I'll add to the conversation about wind radii is that even if the storm approaches land with hurricane force winds extending, say, 100 miles from the center, it will not project a uniform 100 mile swath of hurricane-force winds over land. The winds will break down over land pretty quickly, especially at surface-level, even while the center is still offshore. If it maintains its strength and moves quickly in your direction it's certainly possible to get high winds 100 miles inland in that scenario, but I'd caution people against looking at those wind radii, looking at how far their city is from the coast, and then projecting what they'll experience.

[NDG]

I believe that Florence may be about to enter less than favorable conditions. The line I put near the storm seems to be some kind of boundary being caused by the storm moving into the westward winds around the ULL to the storms NW. I could be wrong.

http://i65.tinypic.com/2dhw428.jpg

That ULL will be moving away and dissipating, all the rising latent heat from Florence will push it out of the way.

[psyclone]

It looks a lot better for folks from Wilmington south to MB. OBX and Jacksonville are direct hits though.

I would be feeling a cautious sense of optimism in wilmington right now since the storm is still a ways out and the track has ticked ever so slightly northward. Hugo provided a great illustration that one need not be too far south and west of the center of a northwestward moving hurricane to have a dramatically less impactful event. as there are multiple forecast cycles before landfall if the track starts ticking ever so slightly eastward things could look better for that region if that trend remains intact. Of course that comes at the expense of those up the coast. unfortunately someone is likey to pay rent with this one.

I think we'll end up at the OBX between Nags Head and Hatteras as we closer to landfall over the next few runs as they move in small adjustments north. Even the current NHC track is to the west of the consensus TVCN.

That's not a small adjustment...that's a big one. Speaking specifically to the cape fear area they do not need nearly that large of a swing for much better conditions. BTW ABC news was at Wrightsville beach this evening and it was beautiful with a rather sedate sea state. In the old days one would have no idea of the furious tempest far at sea..

[wxman57]

Thank you wxman57, I was wondering where EnnisTX got that number. That is why I said 200 miles in diameter, but it is growing, I'm expecting it to have a diameter of around 350-400 miles by the time it makes final approach.

I would not expect it to grow very much from its current size. It's approaching its peak intensity. No real reason for it to grow significantly. Often, storms can nearly double in size after major land interactions (Ike 2008, for example). There isn't much to cause Florence to really grow much in size.

[MacTavish]

I believe that Florence may be about to enter less than favorable conditions. The line I put near the storm seems to be some kind of boundary being caused by the storm moving into the westward winds around the ULL to the storms NW. I could be wrong.

http://i65.tinypic.com/2dhw428.jpg

That ULL will be moving away and dissipating, all the rising latent heat from Florence will push it out of the way.

Indeed, but until that happens my best guess is that Florence continues to look less organized overnight tonight. May even weaken a bit. Could also have some implications as far as future track. Just something to watch. I first called out the asymmetry earlier and people had jokes.

[psyclone]

One thing I'll add to the conversation about wind radii is that even if the storm approaches land with hurricane force winds extending, say, 100 miles from the center, it will not project a uniform 100 mile swath of hurricane-force winds over land. The winds will break down over land pretty quickly, especially at surface-level, even while the center is still offshore. If it maintains its strength and moves quickly in your direction it's certainly possible to get high winds 100 miles inland in that scenario, but I'd caution people against looking at those wind radii, looking at how far their city is from the coast, and then projecting what they'll experience.

The wind radii is presented as the max extent in quadrant and since it's over a marine environment those winds immediately degrade with land interaction. The net effect is the NHC wind swaths we see (orange for TS winds and red for hurricane) tend to be overcooked. I can give a real life example for that which happened 1 year ago today. the NHC has my region painted in red for Irma...but we didn't get sustained hurricane force winds...although we did have gusts of that magnitude. I suspect the big story for many will be prolific QPF and resultant inland flooding for areas near and north and east of the eventual track.

[toad strangler]

Looks like a due W wobble

[toad strangler]

Florence looks like it's taken another western wobble.

Yup, sorry to repeat just above

[meriland29]

Looks like a due W wobble

Just keep an eye out for consistency. Wobble watching is iffy...

[rickybobby]

It’s going west for the past 20 mins. Is that normal?

[Javlin]

Looks like a due W wobble

Been feeling that ridge all day earlier today while moving along 25N the northern side of Flo looked a little flat when it went fat it started moving more N of W.Averages.

[toad strangler]

Looks like a due W wobble

Just keep an eye out for consistency. Wobble watching is iffy...

Of course

[jlauderdal]

It’s going west for the past 20 mins. Is that normal?

Hurricanes wobble, totally normal

[Aric Dunn]

Lookslike it pulled in a little dry air.

[toad strangler]

It’s going west for the past 20 mins. Is that normal?

Hurricanes wobble, totally normal

This. A couple of us noticed the wobble which is NOT a change of direction.

[Ntxw]

Some inner core changes and not as symmetrical as earlier today. Still a potent Cat 4 storm but for the short time being, does appear some weakening. Once that gets worked out she'll hit the warmest waters she'd had, though not sure if we'll get the same kind of quick strengthening as earlier as she gains latitude.

[toad strangler]

Lookslike it pulled in a little dry air.

To the S yes

[Extratropical94]

Recon data from AF302 stopped updating right before they entered the NE eyewall...

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon data from AF302 stopped updating right before they entered the NE eyewall...

Man that always makes me worry when they lose communication until we find out they are ok.