WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

TPPN11 PGTW 051833

A. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 15.45N

D. 142.39E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET YIELDS 4.5
WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE MET, PT YIELDS 5.0. BROKE CONSTRAINTS
DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

interesting to see JTWC breaking constraints

[Yellow Evan]

Eye isn't MG.

TPPN11 PGTW 051833

A. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 15.45N

D. 142.39E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET YIELDS 4.5
WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE MET, PT YIELDS 5.0. BROKE CONSTRAINTS
DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[NotoSans]

The 1800Z imagery was indeed showing an MG eye.

[Yellow Evan]

so the JTWC is actually being reasonable today.

[euro6208]

Raw up to 6.8

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2018 Time : 181000 UTC
Lat : 15:31:12 N Lon : 142:19:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 969.7mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.1 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 6 km

Center Temp : -24.2C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 93km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.3 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

10W MARIA 180705 1800 15.5N 142.4E WPAC 105 953

Cat 3 Major!

[cycloneye]

JMA:

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 5 July 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 5 July>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°25' (15.4°)
E142°25' (142.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N17°00' (17.0°)
E141°40' (141.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N19°05' (19.1°)
E140°30' (140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N21°30' (21.5°)
E136°50' (136.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Center position of probability circle N24°10' (24.2°)
E131°20' (131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Center position of probability circle N27°05' (27.1°)
E125°20' (125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Radius of probability circle 540 km (290 NM)

[euro6208]

Pinhole?

[Yellow Evan]

10W MARIA 180705 1800 15.5N 142.4E WPAC 105 953

Cat 3 Major!

Likely conservative. 115 knots is pretty good if you ask me.

[euro6208]

BT updated.

10W MARIA 180705 1800 15.5N 142.3E WPAC 110 949

[euro6208]

1 mb deeper on the 12Z GFS run.

[NotoSans]

WMG pixels now visible on EIR.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Cat 5 presentation on Dvorak now. Mid-grade Category 4 is good for now considering it didn't even have an eye 4 hours ago. Well on its way to rivaling the previous version of itself.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2018 Time : 191000 UTC
Lat : 15:37:11 N Lon : 142:12:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 962.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.8 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : +3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

[Kingarabian]

From no eye to cat.5... How is this rate of intensification even defined?

[StruThiO]

Holy crap.

[Yellow Evan]

From no eye to cat.5... How is this rate of intensification even defined?

https://i.imgur.com/YqBFViD.gif

This is why I harp when EPAC storms don't get a thick CDO (and one that is not a product of easterly shear) beforehand - it makes the Cat 3 to Cat 5 stage much easier especially if the eye is small. Nevertheless, I don't think this is a Cat 5 yet due to lag but it'll be one pretty soon.

[Ntxw]

[NotoSans]

Eye temp down to OW now and the eye is still a bit irregular. Still need some time before it becomes a cat.5. 125-130 KT would be a reasonable intensity estimate at 00Z.

[Kingarabian]

From no eye to cat.5... How is this rate of intensification even defined?

https://i.imgur.com/YqBFViD.gif

This is why I harp when EPAC storms don't get a thick CDO (and one that is not a product of easterly shear) beforehand - it makes the Cat 3 to Cat 5 stage much easier especially if the eye is small. Nevertheless, I don't think this is a Cat 5 yet due to lag but it'll be one pretty soon.

I see your point now. I also think WPAC systems are a kind of their own lol.