ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

recon already finding plenty of TS force winds.

[cycloneye]

Aircraft Position: 20.27°N 85.83°W
Bearing: 153° at 265 kt
Altitude: 734 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 39 kt at 91°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1006.2 mb

[wxman57]

Shear map looks...very hostile. Not sure why SHIPS has shear so low.

What shear map? Current shear or shear predicted for Tue-Wed?

CIMSS current

Upper winds are changing rapidly across the Gulf over the next 24-48 hrs. Shear is diminishing considerably.

Recon has arrived. Let's see where it finds an LLC.

[NDG]

What shear map? Current shear or shear predicted for Tue-Wed?

CIMSS current

Upper winds are changing rapidly across the Gulf over the next 24-48 hrs. Shear is diminishing considerably.

Recon has arrived. Let's see where it finds an LLC.

Good to see that it looks like you are changing your mind about shear over the GOM over the next 3 days, which SHIPS continues to trend down.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is going to fly threw the "NULL" zone between the two vorts.

[Aric Dunn]

Also look at the upper level outflow expanding west. still some mid level shear undercutting it but vast improvement in the last 12 hours.

[wxman57]

LLC doesn't appear to very well-defined. There's a broad circulation. Center may reform a bit east. That may not affect the final landfall point near Panama City, though. Could move inland as far east as Apalachicola. Going with 85 kts (Cat 2) on the next advisory. Could be stronger. A rare case where the NHC may be a little too conservative with the wind forecast.

[ozonepete]

Also look at the upper level outflow expanding west. still some mid level shear undercutting it but vast improvement in the last 12 hours.

This is consolidating quickly now. Looks like it could strengthen pretty quickly from here due to the lessening shear and good outflow on the northwest side

[chaser1]

Still think recon will have a bit of a hard time closing off a finite LLC further to the east, though things are evolving quickly so that could change over the next few hours. If I had to pin-point a spot where I believe center relocation will occur, i'd bet on 19.8 N and 85.5 W

[cycloneye]

Aric,look where is going.

[hurricanedude]

If it Michael makes it to cat 3....and accelerates NE then hurricane gusts could go as far north as the Delmarva? Would this be correct?

[Aric Dunn]

LLC doesn't appear to very well-defined. There's a broad circulation. Center may reform a bit east. That may not affect the final landfall point near Panama City, though. Could move inland as far east as Apalachicola. Going with 85 kts (Cat 2) on the next advisory. Could be stronger. A rare case where the NHC may be a little too conservative with the wind forecast.

it has been modeled by the models now for a few runs. two vorts already present. recon has flown through the "NULL" region and or "Centroid"

nothing new ..

[psyclone]

Things seem to be escalating a bit as compared to a day or two ago. Perhaps we are poised to end the Florida October hurricane drought with a system that comes in...perhaps not too far west of Hermine '16 which also ended a long term hurricane drought. One thing is certain...we have no shortage of oceanic heat residing in the Gulf right now so if the upper levels/shear cooperate things could wind up.

[NDG]

Not surprising that the recon turned SE.
A reformation closer to the convection is taking shape, IMO.

[ozonepete]

LLC doesn't appear to very well-defined. There's a broad circulation. Center may reform a bit east. That may not affect the final landfall point near Panama City, though. Could move inland as far east as Apalachicola. Going with 85 kts (Cat 2) on the next advisory. Could be stronger. A rare case where the NHC may be a little too conservative with the wind forecast.

it has been modeled by the models now for a few runs. two vorts already present. recon has flown through the "NULL" region and or "Centroid"

nothing new ..

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Fujiwhara_effect_cyclone_diagram.png

Yes this is pretty classic for a newly developing TS. There are only 2 vorts left and pretty soon there will be one. Until they consolidate the best track position will be the center (centroid) these two are rotating around.

[cycloneye]

We have a closed LLC.

[stormhunter7]

Aric,look where is going.

https://i.imgur.com/5V950ox.png

Looks like recon found a flight level center there.

[Ptarmigan]

Some of the forecast models I saw have Michael having central pressure of 950 millibars.

It is a rather large tropical storm.

[Aric Dunn]

LLC doesn't appear to very well-defined. There's a broad circulation. Center may reform a bit east. That may not affect the final landfall point near Panama City, though. Could move inland as far east as Apalachicola. Going with 85 kts (Cat 2) on the next advisory. Could be stronger. A rare case where the NHC may be a little too conservative with the wind forecast.

it has been modeled by the models now for a few runs. two vorts already present. recon has flown through the "NULL" region and or "Centroid"

nothing new ..

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Fujiwhara_effect_cyclone_diagram.png

Yes this is pretty classic for a newly developing TS. There are only 2 vorts left and pretty soon there will be one. Until they consolidate the best track position will be the center (centroid) these two are rotating around.

Exactly and that is the area where recon just flew through. they will find the circ/vort to the east shortly.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,look where is going.

https://i.imgur.com/5V950ox.png

Looks like recon found a flight level center there.

no doubt the wind field is closed. but really look at that recon image and compare to the image i posted the direction of the winds on both sides do not match up classic "NULL" ZONE. or could also be a 3rd vort..