ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[ronjon]

Too early to pin point a track right now. A lot will depend on where the CoC forms, the speed and how fast the “cold front” comes in

Agree - there is almost a 24 hr difference in landfall times between GFS and ECM. Anytime there's a trough involved, the models have a difficult time nailing down the solution until a couple days out. But the trend in the models to develop a major hurricane is worrisome.

[NDG]

Too early to pin point a track right now. A lot will depend on where the CoC forms, the speed and how fast the “cold front” comes in

Agree - there is almost a 24 hr difference in landfall times between GFS and ECM. Anytime there's a trough involved, the models have a difficult time nailing down the solution until a couple days out. But the trend in the models to develop a major hurricane is worrisome.

The latest Euro and GFS are now much closer in timing of landfall, now they are around 12 hrs of difference, GFS shows early afternoon Wednesday, Euro now shows shortly after mid night.

[smithtim]

Euro Cat 3 in 72 Hours. RI

It is the gulf... RI seems to be more frequent in gulf than elsewhere, what are the RI indices showing?



And, let's hope that it doesn't happen as that's a real quick change. As of today most folks up there on gulf coast are probably in mindset " meh just little TS maybe coming" then if a major showed up within few days??? Let's hope not!!!!!!!

[storm4u]

12z hurricane models ramping up

[NDG]

12z tropical models, the trend continues of more joining the GFS & Euro in TD 14 becoming at least a Cat 1 hurricane.

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... _early.png

[Ken711]

Too early to pin point a track right now. A lot will depend on where the CoC forms, the speed and how fast the “cold front” comes in

Agree - there is almost a 24 hr difference in landfall times between GFS and ECM. Anytime there's a trough involved, the models have a difficult time nailing down the solution until a couple days out. But the trend in the models to develop a major hurricane is worrisome.

I agree if this ramps up quickly to a major or just a Cat 1, it's going to catch some people of guard.

[toad strangler]

NAVGEM had this pegged right from the get go. Gotta give props.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Watching closely from tampa..don't like the looks of this

[bella_may]

CMC takes it into Pascagoula Mississippi and slower than the last run. Just noticed the 06Z GFS shifted west from Panama City to Navarre beach

[ronjon]

A good chunk of UKMET ensemble members take the storm through Tampa. Its obviously an eastern outlier but I think everyone from Mobile to Tampa need to pay attention. Trough timing and speed will be critical as to where the storm turns NE and ultimate landfall.

[tolakram]

Apparently all we had to do to fix the problem was go to the isitdown website. lol

0Z Euro

[BobHarlem]

12Z Early runs tightened up (shifted either side toward the middle), the TVCN that the NHC likes takes it in between PCB and Mexico Beach.

[Cypresso]

Apparently all we had to do to fix the problem was go to the isitdown website. lol

0Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/9b2BBCu.gif

Doing a snake thing there whilst traveling through the Gulf.

[northjaxpro]

A good chunk of UKMET ensemble members take the storm through Tampa. Its obviously an eastern outlier but I think everyone from Mobile to Tampa need to pay attention. Trough timing and speed will be critical as to where the storm turns NE and ultimate landfall.

Also, how much that trough digs will also be a critical factor. If the trough is analyzed deeper, Michael could indeed come in a bit farther east than anticipated.

Something to really watch in the next 36 hours.

[NDG]

CMC takes it into Pascagoula Mississippi and slower than the last run. Just noticed the 06Z GFS shifted west from Panama City to Navarre beach

That's incorrect, the 06z GFS shows landfall over Destin, and the previous run was just 20 miles east between Panama City and Destin, that's not much of a westward shift.
The CMC has been trending to the right, is the way to look at it closer to the GFS and Euro.

[NDG]

Apparently all we had to do to fix the problem was go to the isitdown website. lol

0Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/9b2BBCu.gif

Glad to see that is finally fixed, is going to be busy here during the next 72-96 hours.

[bella_may]

CMC takes it into Pascagoula Mississippi and slower than the last run. Just noticed the 06Z GFS shifted west from Panama City to Navarre beach

That's incorrect, the 06z GFS shows landfall over Destin, and the previous run was just 20 miles east between Panama City and Destin, that's not much of a westward shift.
The CMC has been trending to the right, is the way to look at it closer to the GFS and Euro.

A west shift either way. There’s not many miles between Navarre and Destin. CMC did trend east but it’s still a bit west from the other models

[NDG]

CMC takes it into Pascagoula Mississippi and slower than the last run. Just noticed the 06Z GFS shifted west from Panama City to Navarre beach

That's incorrect, the 06z GFS shows landfall over Destin, and the previous run was just 20 miles east between Panama City and Destin, that's not much of a westward shift.
The CMC has been trending to the right, is the way to look at it closer to the GFS and Euro.

A west shift either way. There’s not many miles between Navarre and Destin. CMC did trend east but it’s still a bit west from the other models

CMC is the last model to depend on, you should not be worrying so much because it has a track over your area especially with the UKMET (which is more reliable than the CMC) even further east than the GFS & Euro.

[bella_may]

That's incorrect, the 06z GFS shows landfall over Destin, and the previous run was just 20 miles east between Panama City and Destin, that's not much of a westward shift.
The CMC has been trending to the right, is the way to look at it closer to the GFS and Euro.

A west shift either way. There’s not many miles between Navarre and Destin. CMC did trend east but it’s still a bit west from the other models

CMC is the last model to depend on, you should not be worrying so much because it has a track over your area especially with the UKMET (which is more reliable than the CMC) even further east than the GFS & Euro.

The CMC hasn’t been that inaccurate this season. I believe they nailed the last storm

[NDG]

Euro's ensembles from last night, continued to trend east from previous runs.