WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

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euro6208

Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#221 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:28 am

Near as perfect as it can get. :eek: clobbered.

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#222 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:31 am

JTWC could go 150-155 in next warning

TPPN10 PGTW 241217

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU)

B. 24/1200Z

C. 14.64N

D. 146.20E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET 6.5. PT 7.5. DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 20NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0625Z 13.93N 146.97E SSMS
24/0723Z 14.02N 146.78E SSMS


D
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#223 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:43 am

JMA 12z forecast Yutu to increase to 120 knots being tied with Meranti
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#224 Postby NotoSans » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:44 am

155 knots from JTWC and 115 knots from JMA.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#225 Postby Highteeld » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:46 am

10:34 PM 79 F 0 F 0 % NNE 67 mph 84 mph 28.6 in 0.3 in 0.0 in Rain / Windy
Last edited by Highteeld on Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#226 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:47 am

31W YUTU 181024 1200 14.6N 146.2E WPAC 155 899
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#227 Postby Highteeld » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:54 am

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#228 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:55 am

There's quite a bit of lightning visible on the earthcam from Saipan: https://www.earthcam.com/world/northernmarianaislands/saipan/?cam=saip
That sound is really scary...
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#229 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:58 am

Unreal.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#230 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:09 am

Slight west jog on last few frames - eye might miss Saipan by a hairline but surefire nuclear grade effect for Saipan and Tinian

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#231 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:12 am

Curent conditions at Saipan Airport: 52 kt sustained gusting to 85 kt. Pressure 974 mb.

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Source: https://www.windy.com
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#232 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:13 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2018 Time : 121000 UTC
Lat : 14:40:48 N Lon : 146:07:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 900.4mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.5 7.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +22.3C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#233 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:14 am

2018OCT24 124000 7.5 900.4 155.0 7.5 7.5 7.9 3.7T/24hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 22.47 -81.16 EYE 21 IR 71.4 14.70 -146.03 ARCHER HIM-8 18.3
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#234 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:19 am

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10240907
SATCON: MSLP = 911 hPa MSW = 153 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 147.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 137 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 200 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0.7 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 898 hPa 155 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT241140
CIMSS AMSU: 922 hPa 132 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10240907
ATMS: 922.4 hPa 141.5 knots Date: 10240318
SSMIS: 922.4 hPa 141.5 knots Date: 10240318
CIRA ATMS: 951 hPa 104 knots Date:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#235 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:25 am

Eyewall nearing Saipan and Tinian.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#236 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:28 am

The lightning frequency now seems to be around 2-4 times per minute on that Saipan webcam.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#237 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:38 am

Maintaining 155 knots for 1.5 days
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#238 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:51 am

JMA's extended track is flat west - really picking up that mighty SCS ridge (looks slowed at the very end of the track - maybe beginning of recurve or maybe not)

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#239 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:58 am

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1055093273751158784


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euro6208

Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#240 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:04 am

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1055085640705105920


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