ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[crimi481]

Sahara sand may be disrupting those bands. Should moisten up in time?
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html

[PandaCitrus]

FYI, professional weather people I follow on twitter are saying it's an eyewall replacement cycle.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039324508509753344




 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1039324032666136576




 https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1039318981436432390

[PavelGaborik10]

Continuing to shrink significantly frame by frame. EWRC, dry air, or both...Strange to see a cyclones outflow just essentially evaporate so rapidly. Wow.

[PandaCitrus]

It could be transitioning to a more annular like hurricane. Huge donut 40 mile wide eye like Hugo with minimal spiral banding.

[Hammy]

On the ERC, didn't most of the models have a large eye at landfall? This is likely what'll lead to it.

[PTrackerLA]

Continuing to shrink significantly frame by frame. EWRC, dry air, or both...Strange to see a cyclones outflow just essentially evaporate so rapidly. Wow.

With any luck for the Carolina's sake, Florence will have the classic ragged out look that Isabel and Irene had. Maybe wishful thinking since I don't see any models forecasting that type of weakening before landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

FYI, professional weather people I follow on twitter are saying it's an eyewall replacement cycle.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039324508509753344
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/sta ... 2666136576
https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1039318981436432390

Fair enough. its possibly just saying we need another microwave that is not 6 hours old.

[Vdogg]

Seems to be a pretty major convective burst happening right now. This decrease in size may be very temporary.

[toad strangler]

Continuing to shrink significantly frame by frame. EWRC, dry air, or both...Strange to see a cyclones outflow just essentially evaporate so rapidly. Wow.

It just happened to this very storm just a day or so ago lol

[cheezyWXguy]

It could be transitioning to a more annular like hurricane. Huge donut 40 mile wide eye like Hugo with minimal spiral banding.

The "A-word" should only be reserved for special cases. That term is thrown around almost every time a major hurricane develops a warm eye that's 20 miles wide or more.

In regards to the HWRF, I think the fact that the model can simulate forecast IR imagery is great example of how much the models and forecasting abilities have improved in recent times, but it's not perfect. I don't think Ive ever seen the HWRF depict a strengthening major hurricane with feeder bands. If it does end up annular, kudos to the model, but its far from it now, and I wouldn't yet bank on Florence adopting that structure.

[supercane4867]

Convection firing along the dry slot maybe an indication of a large outer eyewall contracting and dissipating the inner eye. We are going to see a huge eye popping out as predicted by HWRF if I'm right

[txwatcher91]

FYI, professional weather people I follow on twitter are saying it's an eyewall replacement cycle.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039324508509753344
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/sta ... 2666136576
https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1039318981436432390

Fair enough. its possibly just saying we need another microwave that is not 6 hours old.

What’s interesting is yesterday the HMON predicted the EWRC would start this afternoon right around the same time our microwave pass indicated an EWRC was starting. Furthermore research has shown that dry air can sometimes be a factor that contributes to the transition of a storm to annular and the rapid shedding of the banding would seem to indicate a structural change is ongoing. Also worth noting, I’ve read in some journals that the double wind maxima is less apparent when a storm is going through a transition to annular.

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems to be a pretty major convective burst happening right now. This decrease in size may be very temporary.

Just because the storm's feeder bands have decreased, doesn't necessarily mean the storm has decreased in size, as much as likely just ingested dry air. As far as I can tell, the windfield is still about the same size, as is the CDO and overall moisture envelope. I suspect that whatever structural changes are occurring may take a while to complete, but I would bank on a pretty substantial increase in size.

[supercane4867]

Here is a GIF image of Isabel's rapid EWRC that transitioned her to a real annularcane.

[ronyan]

Well, is the often talked-about, but ever elusive annular cane going to show up? I don't think that would be a good turn of events. Aren't they more resistant to weakening from shear and cool water?

[Vdogg]

Here is a GIF image of Isabel's rapid EWRC that transitioned her to a real annularcane.

This storm is like Isabel's clone, straight down to the possible landfall location.

[GeneratorPower]

Reading the wiki article on annular hurricanes is fascinating. There is some reason to believe that the current EWRC might be in fact an annular transition. At least possible. No harm in pondering it. Here’s the link.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_tropical_cyclone

[1900hurricane]

Eyewall replacement continues to progress.

[PavelGaborik10]

Continuing to shrink significantly frame by frame. EWRC, dry air, or both...Strange to see a cyclones outflow just essentially evaporate so rapidly. Wow.

It just happened to this very storm just a day or so ago lol

"
During extremely different atmospheric conditions. I thought it was clear I was alluding to storms in favorable conditions undergoing EWRC's....otherwise I suppose you could use landfalling cyclones to "contradict" my previous post as well.

[wxmann_91]

Eyewall replacement continues to progress.

That eyewall is looking rather thin on the northeast side. ERC could have opened a little window for a little dry air intrusion.