ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Unusual number of lightning strikes on the eyewall

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1049836692499132416

[meriland29]

It does look like the S side is warming up and losing convection a bit...for now. I am sure that is very temporary.

[OverlandHurricane]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

Dude. Get out of there. NOW.

More importantly, at some point in the not-so-distant future, all the escape routes out of there will be under water. Don't wait around for that.

[StormPyrate]

South side seems to be dying down, shear or dry air?

It's not dry air, I just checked. Has to be shear.

Here is one theory. Click link to see 'thread".

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1049814078560956416

Cant reach it, but interesting
So what would weaken the convection coming in?

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF model simulation at landfall....No words

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00918&fh=6

[meriland29]

HWRF model simulation at landfall....No words

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00918&fh=6

Jesus..

[tolakram]

It's not dry air, I just checked. Has to be shear.

Here is one theory. Click link to see 'thread".

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1049814078560956416

Cant reach it, but interesting
So what would weaken the convection coming in?

Drops from an earlier mission revealed dry air on the west side of the storm, while all other quadrants super moist.

Why is this still happening? An earlier G-IV flew & sampled the near-core env. of #Michael. Most of the profiles are moist, with the exception of dropsondes #24 & #25 which have a classic dry air import signal.

This is the likely culprit for why the SW eyewall remains open.

[gatorcane]

HWRF model simulation at landfall....No words

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00918&fh=6

Wow

[jlauderdal]

Ri doesnt go on for days, bottom line is cat 4 at landfall is probable..big win for hwrf and euro for intensity.. euro was too slow so that's a loss, gfs nailed timing....big wind big surge, daytime landfall so anyone doubting the power of surge will see it tomorrow

What are you talking about? This storm IS exploding, and has been for quite some time.

The way the south side of Michael looks, I doubt winds are Cat 4 criteria.

I didn't say they were, but this storm has been undergoing RI for days now. It's a mere 5 MPH away from being a category 4 at this time.

[eastcoastFL]

Is the western side flattening? IF so is that due to the trough pushing it or shear?

[tolakram]

COD IR floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[smithtim]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

There’s still time to leave and there are hotel rooms still available in Pensacola & Mobile. Be safe!

Yes! Go west. Most people drive north and keep driving north....then lots of folks are stranded on the roads. Get on 10 and GO WEST!

I believe you don 't have to go too far....just get OFF the beach and at least 20-40 miles inland - and on the west side of the storm.

Well spoken on both posts... I know that area ( did UG at UWF ) and have much experience driving in and out of storms due to both chasing & relief work and agree 100% y'all still have a few hours before weather deteriorates! And westbound there will be rooms in mobile or coastal Mississippi if Pensacola fills up or gets expensive.

But but but DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE ANY SERVICES GAS etc for a little while. If you have less than quater to half tank you run risk getting stuck traffic run outta gas. To find gas the gasbuddy site or app has a very good function to tell gas stations which have gas vs out of gas or no power etc. Governor Scott was plugging it a lot last year during that massive Irma evacuation. I found it very useful in my travels to aide in recent recovery mission Florence in eastern NC.

[cycloneye]

Impressive view from the International Space Station.

 https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1049837029801033734

[GCANE]

Looks like a legit eye now.
Outflow channel is getting better connected with the ULL over the east tip of Cuba.
Last stop before landfall is the hot pool of water along the bend.
May make it to Cat 4.

[meriland29]

My phone is being wonky. Is recon coming in with more?

[Taylormae]

Water is up to Bamboo Willies on Pcola Beach.
For those not familiar it’s a bar on the boardwalk at Pensacola, Beach FL on the sound side.

[PavelGaborik10]

Ri doesnt go on for days, bottom line is cat 4 at landfall is probable..big win for hwrf and euro for intensity.. euro was too slow so that's a loss, gfs nailed timing....big wind big surge, daytime landfall so anyone doubting the power of surge will see it tomorrow

The way the south side of Michael looks, I doubt winds are Cat 4 criteria.

I didn't say they were, but this storm has been undergoing RI for days now. It's a mere 5 MPH away from being a category 4 at this time.

This storm has gone from a TD, or a category 3 in what, 48 hours...less? It may not have been RI'ing throughout the entire time period, but it damn sure was through the majority.

[srainhoutx]

Bay County officials were begging for help from the National Media to get word out this afternoon for people to evacuate. I hope and pray those 100K folks did heed the warnings to get out!

[PavelGaborik10]

Unusual number of lightning strikes on the eyewall

http://i65.tinypic.com/24gjf9x.gif

A sign of further intensification.