ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormPyrate]

I had no idea a storm could reach that intensity with an open eye
Learn something new everyday

That's a MIMIC extrapolation, not actual imagery.

From an earlier post:

Can I get a second set of eyes on the microwave ? Get another opinion if the eye wall has closed.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

The problem with these, as I learned recently, is they extrapolate the data between microwave passes. The only hard data is the pass itself, so go off of those only. Between passes, we have recon VDMs; at last report, both NOAA2 and AF301 (who has since left the storm) reported the eyewall as open in the SW.

I was referring the Recon Data saying it was open, not the mimic

[ConvergenceZone]

When is the next NHC update? I know we all expect the strength to go up, but aren't we overdo for an update?

We're about 45 minutes off from the next one. They don't usually start coming in at 1-2 hour intervals until we're about 12 hours from landfall.

Ah Okay, that makes sense then, thanks Hammy.

[gatorcane]

Bands from Michael heading towards Tampa Bay...

[supercane4867]

Extrap. 946mb this pass

[craptacular]

Recon just did some really crazy flying in the NW corner but is now finally coming in for that NW-SE pass.

[SunnyThoughts]

Water is up to Bamboo Willies on Pcola Beach.
For those not familiar it’s a bar on the boardwalk at Pensacola, Beach FL on the sound side.

So the sound has risen that much?

Yes, that’s what the video showed. Sent to me by a friend (though he didn’t take it)

It’s public. Here’s the link if you’d like to see https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... =bookmarks

Thanks for posting

[NDG]

NW eyewall & eye

020630 2716N 08639W 6987 02830 9656 +138 //// 075110 119 100 051 01
020700 2715N 08638W 6873 02931 9617 +135 //// 079089 108 107 037 05
020730 2714N 08636W 6899 02878 9581 +147 +145 078064 065 110 020 00
020800 2713N 08635W 6928 02823 9560 +152 +132 080057 060 109 018 03
020830 2711N 08634W 6963 02768 9543 +153 +132 075044 049 066 003 00
020900 2708N 08634W 6938 02777 9511 +171 +113 076028 029 035 001 00
020930 2706N 08633W 6953 02756 9507 +168 +105 074020 023 027 002 03
021000 2704N 08632W 6958 02739 9497 +169 +104 051008 010 023 002 03
021030 2703N 08631W 6938 02751 9465 +192 +090 115002 005 015 001 00

[Michele B]

HWRF model simulation at landfall....No words

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00918&fh=6

This model makes Pensacola look really bad, too.

As several others have said.....there are no words for what this predicts will happen.

[Hammy]

020630 2716N 08639W 6987 02830 9656 +138 //// 075110 119 100 051 01
020700 2715N 08638W 6873 02931 9617 +135 //// 079089 108 107 037 05
020730 2714N 08636W 6899 02878 9581 +147 +145 078064 065 110 020 00

This is the latest pass through the NW eyewall (which has consistently been weaker than the NE and SE quad)

Good chance, just like this morning, that stronger NW eyewall means we're going to see some significant increase next time they fly through the NE or E section.

Edit: NDG beat me to it

[Laser30033003]

Bands from Michael heading towards Tampa Bay...

Yes I'm in Seminole which is in Pinellas County...I've been watching that line coming for us....

[supercane4867]

Hot towers popping up in the eyewall again. Still intensifying

[meriland29]

What mission number are they on atm? I see 12 and 13 which are both in the storm with significantly different readings..

[NDG]

020630 2716N 08639W 6987 02830 9656 +138 //// 075110 119 100 051 01
020700 2715N 08638W 6873 02931 9617 +135 //// 079089 108 107 037 05
020730 2714N 08636W 6899 02878 9581 +147 +145 078064 065 110 020 00

This is the latest pass through the NW eyewall (which has consistently been weaker than the NE and SE quad)

Good chance, just like this morning, that stronger NW eyewall means we're going to see some significant increase next time they fly through the NE or E section.

Edit: NDG beat me to it

Yeah, that's the impressive part that the NW quadrant is one of the weakest quadrants.

[Centralflamama]

I know I asked earlier, but does anyone think this will affect flights out of Tampa first thing in the morning?

[Michele B]

I had no idea a storm could reach that intensity with an open eye
Learn something new everyday

Water temps must have more to do with Intensification than was originally thought. I mean, I KNOW it's important, but apparently it can override other factors (shear, eyewall not fully formed, etc.).

[jaxfladude]

Prayers to all in harm's way...
Have a niece in town(Jacksonville. Florida) from FSU(Tallahassee, Florida). Hope she has a college to go back to.....is Tallahassee in danger of having it's worst or one of it's worst hurricanes in regards to Michael?

[supercane4867]

Extrap. pressure down to 943mb

[rolltide]

Seems like the west side of Micheal is going to pack more of a punch than I was expecting. I'm in Pensacola and was hoping we would escape higher TS winds.

[Hammy]

SE quad slightly weaker than NW oddly. Recon will probably find the strongest winds to the NE.

[NDG]

Just wow.

021100 2702N 08629W 6920 02766 9437 +202 +102 211008 014 019 002 00
021130 2700N 08627W 6955 02718 9438 +200 +115 223030 035 032 002 00
021200 2659N 08625W 6955 02732 9469 +184 +121 217054 064 052 003 00
021230 2657N 08624W 6952 02768 9508 +179 +116 217077 084 069 003 00
021300 2656N 08622W 6957 02798 9553 +168 +128 222102 109 086 002 00
021330 2655N 08621W 6919 02893 9620 +147 +127 222117 122 098 000 03
021400 2653N 08619W 6936 02904 9657 +150 +109 219120 121 094 001 00
021430 2652N 08618W 6946 02922 9694 +148 +088 219117 118 090 003 00