ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Good news is that the chances it recurves without making landfall have certainly increased today. Just need another east shift or two. I see people calling the GFS an outlier but it still is one of the best models in the world so you just can’t “throw out” that model run.

I mean, the 11am NHC discussion does call the 06z GFS an outlier. The ECMWF trended more north, but I seriously think this is going to be a "meet you in the middle" situation between the two as everything becomes more in focus.

[Aric Dunn]

Good news is that the chances it recurves without making landfall have certainly increased today. Just need another east shift or two. I see people calling the GFS an outlier but it still is one of the best models in the world so you just can’t “throw out” that model run.

highly unlikely given the background environment... balloon data will help with the height extension currently. that will help nail down the next 2 days or so. the slower FLO goes or any extra time moving west without gaining latitude will change things quite a bit. the whole setup is cutting hairs pretty thin..

[Blown Away]

annnnd now we wait for the 18z.. balloon data should make it into the models.

Yes, something isn't right, I guess the stall/loop scenerio is possible, but based on past observations these types of scenerios occurred because the models were moving the system to fast... JMHO

[SoupBone]

Good news is that the chances it recurves without making landfall have certainly increased today. Just need another east shift or two. I see people calling the GFS an outlier but it still is one of the best models in the world so you just can’t “throw out” that model run.

I mean, the 11am NHC discussion does call the 06z GFS an outlier. The ECMWF trended more north, but I seriously think this is going to be a "meet you in the middle" situation between the two as everything becomes more in focus.

There could be significant changes though, since, as Aric posted, there will be balloon data tonight. I would hold off on any solid line of thinking until after those runs. That data should be very valuable.

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone see the latest HWRF? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=120

South shift

[Aric Dunn]

IF anyone thinks the models have a handle on the track. just take a look at the spread just 24 to 36 hours out. that is a large difference in all the ensemble for such a small time period. they cant even nail down the next 24 hours let alone the next 5 days.

[PandaCitrus]

If you extrapolate the HWRF, it would hit northern Florida!

[hurricaneCW]

The record summer rains over the Mid-Atlantic could certainly be a precursor to which area Flo impacts the most.

[MJGarrison]

Anyone see the latest HWRF? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=120

South shift

Anyone know what the deal with this HWRF run is? Ridge strength, placement, orientation?


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[shah83]

Incredible worldwide NH run for Euro 12z, though. Should be worst flood disaster on east coast, at least since Agnes. Hi strike, Monster typhoon landfall in HK.

[chaser1]

Good news is that the chances it recurves without making landfall have certainly increased today. Just need another east shift or two. I see people calling the GFS an outlier but it still is one of the best models in the world so you just can’t “throw out” that model run.

highly unlikely given the background environment... balloon data will help with the height extension currently. that will help nail down the next 2 days or so. the slower FLO goes or any extra time moving west without gaining latitude will change things quite a bit. the whole setup is cutting hairs pretty thin..

I concur BIG TIME!

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone see the latest HWRF? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=120

South shift

Anyone know what the deal with this HWRF run is? Ridge strength, placement, orientation?


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Its building the large 594 ridge faster and is extending west to the east coast.

[seahawkjd]

Another thing to note...the GFS showing it stalling off the North Carolina coast as a category 5 is flat out wrong because the model doesn't take into account ocean upwelling from Florence as it sits there. So if it sits off the coast it will most likely weaken.

Not as much as you would think due to the Gulf Stream. You have a fast moving current replenishing the heat (though there obviously would be some upwelling as you say).

[chaser1]

Anyone see the latest HWRF? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=120

South shift

No....... BIG South Shift!

[meriland29]

If Euro pans out like such, that stall would be as bad if not worse than last years with H...

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF... I think the eye can be bigger though.. lol

[cjrciadt]

HWRF... I think the eye can be bigger though.. lol

Also.. Cloud tops off the scale with "Isaac"

[Aric Dunn]

oh forgot there is also a P3 doing upper air sampling today as well out there right now ... some of that should make it into the 18z models as well. nice.

[supercane4867]

Looks like HWRF has Flo completes an EWRC before landfall with a clear expansion of the eye and windfield, which probably is not a good thing.

[artist]

Navy, I believe nogaps, shifted south just a tad from their earlier track today