ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[craptacular]

Recon is supposed to be "off station" in 30 minutes, so it looks like they are making a beeline back towards the center rather than going to the SW corner for a full SW-to-NE pass. I'm guessing they will come in from the S then exit to the NE.

[NDG]

I just heard that if Michael makes landfall as a Cat 4 it will be the first time ever a Cat 4 makes landfall along the Panhandle.

[bob rulz]

NHC 10pm update Michael now 125mph 947mb.

Wow, I'm actually shocked, based upon what we were seeing before with satellite representation and reports of crazy pressure falls/recon, and on all the posts here, I thought for sure we would be seeing a Cat 4 on this last update.... I'm wondering if this is a sign that the Peak is topped off and will just maintain it's strength from here?

I don't think they've sampled the NE quadrant yet. There's probably cat 4 winds there, the NHC just isn't going to upgrade unless there's absolute certainty.

This is just a case of the storm intensifying in an uneven manner, so to speak. When that happens, there's usually a larger-than-normal disparity between flight-level winds/pressure and surface winds. There's still a chance that this could improve structurally/tighten up its eye before landfall, which is probably when you would see the winds catch up to the presentation.

It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

Normally I would agree, but it's already at the point when most storms in the Gulf begin to weaken, but all signs right now point to continued strengthening (edited, accidentally said weakening before). On top of that, the convection is unusually intense for this part of the basin, which will likely help fuel higher windspeeds, and it's moving fairly quickly, which won't give it a lot of time to weaken. I could see it peaking like 3 or 4 hours before landfall, maybe, but I think any weakening will be modest at best. The conditions are there for this to strengthen right up until landfall moreso than other storms in this area I think.

[dhweather]

I didn't save any of the output, but it is worth noting that 9-10 days ago, the GFS had a major hurricane hitting the northeastern gulf coast, after developing in the Northwest Caribbean.

[northjaxpro]

Panama City Beach is in serious trouble. Sustained cat 4 winds with condo high rises is going to be an ugly sight. I hope no one is vertically evacuating there. With the daytime landfall we are going to be seeing unbelievable footage.

This is an excellent point and something that is going to be extremely riveting to watch. The Panama City Beach webcams are really going to be just incredible to watch landfall. Niw this is provided as long as they are up running. I am just terrified for the region with this monster coming ashore.

Godspeed to everyone out there . i pray everyone got out if harm's way!! I have family out there myself and i talked to them to urge them to head northwest.

[NDG]

I didn't save any of the output, but it is worth noting that 9-10 days ago, the GFS had a major hurricane hitting the northeastern gulf coast, after developing in the Northwest Caribbean.

The GFS beat the Euro fair and square, with this system.

[Smith,J]

Im afraid it’s going to go ashore closer to Destin than to Panama City. Just my opinion.

[Hurrilurker]

NHC 10pm update Michael now 125mph 947mb.

Wow, I'm actually shocked, based upon what we were seeing before with satellite representation and reports of crazy pressure falls/recon, and on all the posts here, I thought for sure we would be seeing a Cat 4 on this last update.... I'm wondering if this is a sign that the Peak is topped off and will just maintain it's strength from here?

I don't think there's any clear indication of leveling off, pressure is still dropping steadily and significantly. Obviously there is some limit due to physics and environmental factors but there's no reason the pressures can't continue to drop overnight. Because of the short time window, this could be very bad as there may not be much time for weakening even after pressures do level off or even increase.

[Nimbus]

Could anyone break down projected peak wind speeds for the West Side - Pensacola? The symmetry, lowering pressure and convection looks like the W side will be unusually very strong. Have parents in Cantonment.

https://i.imgur.com/w8G6tb7.jpg

These winds are way too conservative.

These are average sustained winds so 60 mph at Fort Walton Beach is about right. Gusts of 80 mph or more right on the beach are pretty common during feeder bands. The 10 meter surface winds don't travel very far over land.

[dhweather]

Im afraid it’s going to go ashore closer to Destin than to Panama City. Just my opinion.

11 years a member and you're just now posting?

Don't be shy! Nobody here bites. Well, except wxman57 when it gets really cold.

Back to your point, these things continuously wobble, so this could happen.

[TheStormExpert]

I didn't save any of the output, but it is worth noting that 9-10 days ago, the GFS had a major hurricane hitting the northeastern gulf coast, after developing in the Northwest Caribbean.

The GFS beat the Euro fair and square, with this system.

The Euro has not been living up to its name this season.

[Bamagirl2408]

Im afraid it’s going to go ashore closer to Destin than to Panama City. Just my opinion.

I agree. But what do I know? In Mobile waiting for the turn. #lookslikeIvan

[djones65]

Cyclenall,

It's easy to "bet the farm on it," when you are in Ontario, Canada!!!!
Thank God you are here to reassure the people on the Florida Panhandle...
Hopefully you are right and you can put a feather in your cap for being "right" that the NHC is simply overwarning for no reason...

[SFLcane]

Have asked myself the same questions the last day or two..

 https://twitter.com/bradrousseau/status/1049826712266178560

[SunnyThoughts]

Im afraid it’s going to go ashore closer to Destin than to Panama City. Just my opinion.

I agree. But what do I know? In Mobile waiting for the turn.

Lots of us waiting on that turn ( Sorry neighbors to the East)

[Smith,J]

Im afraid it’s going to go ashore closer to Destin than to Panama City. Just my opinion.

11 years a member and you're just now posting?

Don't be shy! Nobody here bites. Well, except wxman57 when it gets really cold.

Back to your point, these things continuously wobble, so this could happen.

Nothing to offer; usually just content to read. But.. since I live in South Alabama, it is of particular interest to me exactly where this one goes ashore .

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yea, this is officially horrifying. I could see a landfall intensity of around 150-160mph.

[StormTracker]

I keep watching closely for Tallahassee. Right now I’m hoping the core of the storm stays just to it’s west. Wouldn’t take a huge jog east to change the game tho and we know they often do that in this region at the last minute. That city does not have trees made to withstand cat 1 let alone 3 or 4.(see Hermine) An eyewall of a cat 4 scraping through from st George island into Leon county would lay waste to many beautiful oaks in the city and cause an unthinkable amount of damage. It’s going to suck for sure but on the current track the wind core of whatever this will be (not wading into the cat 3 or 4 debate) would most likely hit some of the more sparce areas between PCB And PSJ and then Blountstown and Bainbridge...all relatively less populated but still signicant communities that will take it on the chin.

The surge book is already written as has been well stated here. I exparct major surge damage in Gulf, Franklin and Wakulla and bay.

All that being said. I would still not be surprised to see this do worse damage to Tallahassee than Hermine, possibly on par with Kate.

I have family in Tallahassee and in Bainbridge. I have too have been keeping a watchful eye on Michael for their sake! I have a cousin in Tally, that lives in a mobile home, that went to my uncle's house in Bainbridge. Needless to say it doesn't bode well for them. Levi Cowan also resides in Tally, so I will be keeping his twitter feed on as the storm does what it does. Everyone in the path of Michael stay safe & be blessed!

[MGC]

Almost afraid to see when I wake up tomorrow. Praying this pulls a Lilly and falls apart.....MGC

[Bunkertor]

Im afraid it’s going to go ashore closer to Destin than to Panama City. Just my opinion.

11 years a member and you're just now posting?

Don't be shy! Nobody here bites. Well, except wxman57 when it gets really cold.

Back to your point, these things continuously wobble, so this could happen.