ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CryHavoc]

Want to remind everyone not to focus on the category so much. For Meteorological purposes, sure, it's significant.

For everyone else? A 125mph cat 3 hurricane will hurt and potentially kill you with essentially the same that a 130mph cat 4 will.

We get really into these numbers because it might be historic if it's a cat 4 at landfall, but it will absolutely be historic either way.

In fact, one could argue that a 125mph hurricane that's intensifying as it moves toward land is more concerning than a 135mph 'cane that's weakening before it moves ashore.

[supercane4867]

Have asked myself the same questions the last day or two..

As far as I know. The CIMSS shear map frequently misrepresents shear environment in real time. Use wind shear analysis field from global models to evaluate shear environment instead.

[Jonny]

Hello from Freeport.

Not expecting much since we're more inland plus there have been no evacuations and the high school is being used as a shelter.

[bob rulz]

Have asked myself the same questions the last day or two..

As far as I know. The CIMSS shear map frequently misrepresents shear environment in real time. Use wind shear analysis field from global models to evaluate shear environment instead.

Also the NHC discussion said something about the shear starting to shift to a southwesterly shear, which is less likely to harm Michael due to its motion.

[kthmcc7319]

Hello from Freeport.

Not expecting much since we're more inland plus there have been no evacuations and the high school is being used as a shelter.

Choctaw Beach here. Zones A,B, and C in Walton County have been under mandatory evacuation since yesterday. Those areas include some of Freeport. It may or may not include your location. Here’s the map if you’re not sure which zone you are in. Stay safe.
https://www.co.walton.fl.us/DocumentCen ... Map?bidId=

[Jonny]

Zones A,B and C in Walton County have been under mandatory evacuation since yesterday. Those areas include some of Freeport. It may or may not include your location.

Yup.

I am in zone E.

My brother and his family came over from the 30A-ish part of SRB.

Other brother, who is in zone B, went to the high school to seek shelter.

[Hurrilurker]

Decent webcam in Panama City Beach from "Pineapple Willy's". There are 2 on the page, but the lower one seems to have some sort of night-vision component that makes it look better than most at night, you can really see the waves and there's a pier for scale. Waves already getting whipped up, I think this camera will show a good view of the water rise overnight, although I'm not sure of the tide schedule.

https://pwillys.com/beach-cam/

[craptacular]

Recon might have missed the center and then looped back around to the west and south. Waiting for another set of HDOBs.

[Jag95]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif


Amazing how those storms are filling in to the east

OK, now is when it's supposed to make that turn.

[jaxfladude]

What about FSU/Tallahassee in regards to Michael? My oldest niece is studying at FSU....she's here in Jax, Fla now....asked earlier, sorry if I missed answer...

[Stormcenter]

Sure "looks" NNW on long range radar.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... x&loop=yes

[tolakram]

[pricetag56]

Long time member but haven't posted in years. Now is as good a time as any to ask why hasn't this storm received much media attention. I've been looking for coverage on the weather channel and can't find it. Does anyone know if they have e teams out covering the storm?

[caneman]

Looking more like a Port St. Joe landfall to me. Possibly as far East as Appalachacola. My opinion. Regardless there will be wide spread impacts. Landfalls in gulf alway seem to happen 20 to 40 miles right of late model runs

[Gums]

Salute!

Does someone have a good close view of the NHC track? The one they have is not at a good scale. The three models they reference shows impact by Mexico Beach and Port St Joe. That also agrees with my hand plot using NHC positions and times. [ cane beat me to it, I'm slow typing]

So that's on the other side of PC not on the Destin side.

For easy tracking from Destin to the storm, remember that Destin is 30.4 86.5, or about 6 miles due south of me in Niceville. The NHC track shows Mike turning more sharply when it is about 100 miles or so south of us.@ 0700 local. Each degree is 60 nautical miles, or about 68 - 69 st miles.

Finally, Opal ( near Cat 5 about 4 or 5 hours from impact) and Katrina ( a real Cat 5) both weakened quite a bit, so this dude would really break the mold if it stays a weak 4.

Gums sends....

[Windtalker1]

The Weather Channel is having continuous coverage right now.

[pricetag56]

The Weather Channel is having continuous coverage right now.

Are there any online streams?

[fwbbreeze]

Long time member but haven't posted in years. Now is as good a time as any to ask why hasn't this storm received much media attention. I've been looking for coverage on the weather channel and can't find it. Does anyone know if they have e teams out covering the storm?

TWC has been running coverage all day.

[Bamagirl2408]

Looking more like a Port St. Joe landfall to me

For those who have never been to the “forgotten coast” area it is one of our favorite vacation spots. Appalach, Eastpoint, Carabelle. So sad for the area. It is a lovely area.

[Windtalker1]

Try this https://weather.com/tv/the-weather-chan ... annel-live